General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

Nahhh, they can do it with an over-the-air software upgra... oh.

VW has proven to be very good at tweaking their engine performance with SW, others are rumored to be capable as well.

 

[mongo]

"excercise some caution when reading info from unnamed sources"---good rule for life and Internet forums. Anybody remember them talking about "burst rates" in the conference call? I'm not exactly sure what that is, but I assume it is running at x,000 a week rate for an hour or two. Iirc they were making 5,000 a week burst rate, which implies that the machine is pretty much built and working, and now it's mostly a matter of feeding it.

The suppliers are on the hook for a 6k per week rate over a 24 hour period.

Elon quote from Electrek:

Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon Musk on Twitter

What about the cheaper standard range model?

 

[EinSV]

Thanks for posting. The financial returns seem to be staggering -- really impressive:

Now McKinsey and Co partner Godart van Gendt presented new data at the Australian Energy Week conference in Melbourne this week and claimed that Tesla’s battery has now taken over 55% of the FCAS services and reduced cost by 90%.

van Gendt said (via Reneweconomy):

“In the first four months of operations of the Hornsdale Power Reserve (the official name of the Tesla big battery, owned and operated by Neoen), the frequency ancillary services prices went down by 90 per cent, so that’s 9-0 per cent. And the 100MW battery has achieved over 55 per cent of the FCAS revenues in South Australia. So it’s 2 per cent of the capacity in South Australia achieving 55 per cent of the revenues in South Australia.”

South Australia is reportedly the only state that has seen a decline in FCAS costs over the period. Some estimates put the savings at over $30 million in just a few months. Tesla’s giant battery in Australia reduced grid service cost by 90%​

A little added color on the Hornsdale battery savings from the original reneweconomy article, which suggests that the FCAS benefit alone resulted in a payback period of only 6 months ($35 million/4 months=$50+million/6mos). This kind of immediate return should generate a lot of interest:

Various estimates have put the cost savings to consumers from the FCAS market alone at around $35 million, just in the first four months of its operation.

That’s a pretty good bang for the buck for the estimated $50 million investment by the South Australia government. South Australia is the only state that has experienced a decline in FCAS prices over the past few months. The stunning numbers behind success of Tesla big battery
​

In a shocking development, it seems as though the mainstream financial media has not picked up on this story.

@danahull there is still time for a scoop.

 

[Waiting4M3]

What about the cheaper standard range model?

No signs of it coming, my Tesla page still says late 2018 (so does AWD). I'm in California, non-owner, 1st day online reservation.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

What about the cheaper standard range model?

They’ve previously said it’s coming after AWD. Late ‘18 or early ‘19.

 

[Skryll]

No signs of it coming, my Tesla page still says late 2018 (so does AWD). I'm in California, non-owner, 1st day online reservation.

With all the pressure to catch up on profitability plans they must build the ones with higher margin first, until they have breathing room to start slipping in lower margin ones as well. From the people that volunteered their choice information the spreadsheet Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version claims that 80% of invited people are configuring and only 20% are deferring, but only 26% of those 20% are short range configurations, some of which with all wheel drive, 29% are all wheel drive long range etc.

 

[SteveG3]

Analyst Romit Shah comes on CNBC with a realistic view of Tesla, does a nice job, and CNBC presenters try over and over to have Romit agree with the false narratives so much of the media has worked so hard for months to make appear to be common sense (i.e, implication, "wait, you can't possibly disagree with this train wreck aspect, or this train wreck aspect...").

This is why I so appreciate the effort going on here to respond to the widespread campaign that involves presenting over-the-top falsehoods about Tesla as if they are common sense you'd be a fool not to agree with (i.e., bankruptcy concerns, product safety concerns,...)

Elon Musk is a genius: Analyst

 

[BozieBeMe2]

I highly doubt it’s Berkshire. Maybe down the road when they are profitable... For the time being I think it could be a, or more than one Chinese firm likely interested in an investment if they open in China. This makes the most sense for me because he sounded like he had already made up his mind about where the gigafactory will be (as in the exact city), unlike the rodeo show where he had Arizona, Texas, Ca, NV fighting for a bid. China, as we all know, is leading the charge in EV and alternative energy adoption, companies over there are likely looking at the benefits of the Tesla/Panasonic deal, seeing Tesla’s brand awareness and innovation, likely reached out to Tesla when President Xi announced his decision to open up its market. Elon just seems too sure of himself these days it’s hard to look past how much he’s changed from earlier days of “production hell” to now, where he’s clearly identified exact bottlenecks to tackle. The previous CC gave me confidence that he’s on the right track. He used to tweet about production hell, but now it’s a different tone.

I'm afraid that unless America's business and pubic perceptions don't change soon, China Will, be eating our lunch. They appear to understand how it is necessary to implement change. "Change gonna come".

 

[BozieBeMe2]

[QUOTE="gtrplyr1, post: 2722121, member: 64770]
I also wish he wouldn't tweet about this crap ... just do it. These kind of threats defending the stock are not becoming of a CEO, yes as a shareholder part of me enjoys the fact that Elon is active in terms of share price but really he shouldn't be a cheerleader for the stock ...

He literally said don't buy the stock a few days ago.[/QUOTE]

 

[RobStark]

I'd actually be interested to see, with gas price pushing $4/gal, which of the 10 ICE automakers will lower the gas mileage 1st on their 2019 model.

Automakers don't lower gas mileage when fuel economy standards are lowered instead it allows a a sales mix of more powerful engines. More powerful engines command higher prices hence higher profits.

 

[Intl Professor]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Waa, waa. I want air suspension! Need ap soonest. Have heart probs, but pulse rate goes way up more when wife is driving! Waa, waa.

 

[Tenable]

Waa, waa. I want air suspension!

I'm unhappy as well. I was looking forward to the P, however, without active air I have no interest.

 

[gene]

I'm unhappy as well. I was looking forward to the P, however, without active air I have no interest.

I have had S with and without air suspension. Without air was better. The coils handle better, are infinitely more reliable, ride is still smooth with feeling of the road. Air leaves you feeling disconnected. I am excited at the prospect of a performance version with coils!!!!

 

[1101011]

A little added color on the Hornsdale battery savings from the original reneweconomy article, which suggests that the FCAS benefit alone resulted in a payback period of only 6 months ($35 million/4 months=$50+million/6mos). This kind of immediate return should generate a lot of interest:

Various estimates have put the cost savings to consumers from the FCAS market alone at around $35 million, just in the first four months of its operation.

That’s a pretty good bang for the buck for the estimated $50 million investment by the South Australia government. South Australia is the only state that has experienced a decline in FCAS prices over the past few months. The stunning numbers behind success of Tesla big battery
​

In a shocking development, it seems as though the mainstream financial media has not picked up on this story.

@danahull there is still time for a scoop.

As I understand it, the astonishing premium being paid there is, in part, a function of the current electricity providers taking maximum advantage of the pricing systems available in their jurisdiction.

While certainly a great justification for the use of Tesla products to bring relief in this area, it would be incorrect to assume they would have the same kind of financial impact elsewhere. Yes, the application should make financial sense in many other instances; just would have the same ROI.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend O.T.

Welcome to the Reality Where Grimes Is Dating Elon Musk

Grimes’s Met Gala Tesla Choker Was the Night’s Most Pleasant Surprise (To Our Surprise!)

 

[The Blue Owl]

The SpaceX launch of Falcon 9 Block 5 is being transmitted live on CNBC.

...aaaand they stuck the landing and the CNBC anchors are all like "WOW".

 

[RubberToe]

Tesla would not be taking dual motor Model 3 orders unless Elon was absolutely convinced they will hit the 5,000 per week manufacturing level. Basically Elon just said that the ramp to 5,000 is confirmed. The market should figure this out pretty quick.

RT

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

@Familial Rhino I absolutely agree!

 

[SebastianR]

Tesla would not be taking dual motor Model 3 orders unless Elon was absolutely convinced they will hit the 5,000 per week manufacturing level. Basically Elon just said that the ramp to 5,000 is confirmed. The market should figure this out pretty quick.

RT

And also this is the most brilliant way to (slightly) dampen demand between now and July and then make it explode from then onwards. I can see a lot of deferring folks jump to click "order" as soon as AWD is available. Brilliant management of the 200k car limit anyone?!?

In the good old days of the Model S shorts were constantly saying "if Tesla didn't do A, B or C - demand would have collapsed" ("Demand levers FTW!!). I wonder when we will see the first Seeking Alpha posts about Tesla being in real trouble because they are forced to now sell the AWD version of the Model3...