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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Cross-Post from the autonomous section

Hi,

found this presentation of Andrej Karpathy (Director of AI at Tesla)

He is describing his Work at Tesla und the challenges.

Building the Software 2.0 Stack by Andrej Karpathy from Tesla

This was good. Thank you. A couple of things came to mind as an investor... From this keyhole look at the Tesla software trenches.

1) Labeling and what was shown is needed for sign and traffic light reading, but there needs to be a high data rate path that uses a neural network processing to filter using a physics engine. There needs to be a third domain in the picture that characterizes based on mass and motion independent of labels. Think Feynman and his talk with his dad. It is less about what it (the bird) is called and more about what it does.

2) When he talked about turn signals/blinkers, a light went on. From the Model X British comedy show frame rate (Benny Hill?)... They are using slow frame rates to attenuate the data stream and make it manageable. That will not work on blinkers. The data attentuation has to happen on motion... think like a dog, or maybe other animal. Some animals don't see non-moving objects. They get a high frame rate on motion/transition - everything else is invisible. Again calls for a separate fast physics section.

The AI should be doing the labeling based on a high data rate stream filtered by motion. Less about what it is and more about "did it move, or change state?"

Feynman's dad was underrated.

[Edit: Elon posted a link to this research on visual acuity in nature: https://www.cell.com/action/showImagesData?pii=S0169-5347(18)30052-1

The graph sums it up.
image.jpeg

There are huge differences in how animals see the world -- we're among the crisp-eyed
Tesla is going in the right direction. Maybe they will filter on pixels rather than frame rate for the physics domain...?]
 
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I found Andrej's presentation fascinating, albeit well over my head at points too. One point stood out for me: Apple has always touted the benefits of integrating hardware and software, and it has done well taking that route. Perhaps this dynamic is going to be even more important for Tesla with cars. Just the simple decision of using software and cameras to detect rain rather than a sensor is something you can only do when you have full control of both the hardware and the software -- and your are really good at both. In a car, there has to be a ton of those decisions/opportunities. Of course, this is by no means a new or original insight, but the importance of it just seemed to pop out a bit more in the context of this presentation. Thanks for posting @andifu
 
I found Andrej's presentation fascinating, albeit well over my head at points too. One point stood out for me: Apple has always touted the benefits of integrating hardware and software, and it has done well taking that route. Perhaps this dynamic is going to be even more important for Tesla with cars. Just the simple decision of using software and cameras to detect rain rather than a sensor is something you can only do when you have full control of both the hardware and the software -- and your are really good at both. In a car, there has to be a ton of those decisions/opportunities. Of course, this is by no means a new or original insight, but the importance of it just seemed to pop out a bit more in the context of this presentation. Thanks for posting @andifu


I agree. One thing I do not know about is how much filtering gets done at the sensor. For example when ground clutter is filtered out of the radar signal, does Tesla know where most of the clutter was, as in left, right, or center?

[edit: this is an investor question as it impacts how quickly they will learn to act on the ends of concrete barriers]
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: neroden
Labeling and what was shown is needed for sign and traffic light reading, but there needs to be a high data rate path that uses a neural network processing to filter using a physics engine. There needs to be a third domain in the picture that characterizes based on mass and motion independent of labels. Think Feynman and his talk with his dad. It is less about what it (the bird) is called and more about what it does.]

You didn’t get the hint that these discussions should take place in the neural network thread, eh?

Yes indeed, somewhere there needs to be an understanding of what each labeled object does. I suspect based on the video that Tesla still does this via hard coded rules, traditional software.

You really want to go even further. Not only do you want to have a NN have an understanding of different object’s motions and physics, but you want that understanding to feedback to the image recognition engine. You want other car behavior to feedback to the recognition engine. You want memory of previously travelled paths to feedback, etc.

And then you want continual learning, something that Tesla obviously does not do. Ie. You want the car’s NN to learn as it drives. But we are so far away from that.

Don’t get me wrong, what Karpathy is doing is absolutely right. It is a little bit depressing that he and thus Tesla only started this 11 months ago...
 
On twitter today, Elon informally agreed to do interviews with Joe Rogan and MKBHD ("will do" re each of them). In a tweet about Joe Rogan's show he suggested the timing would be after Model 3 production is steady at 5K/week.

Up until about 2016, Elon used to do quite a lot of long in depth discussions with empathetic hosts who gave him a chance to really give some perspective on both the current dramas projected on Tesla and the big picture and long term possibilities of the company. I think those interviews played a significant role in developing very positive public perception and interest in Elon, Tesla, and SpaceX. Such interviews also made it fun and easy to see that the potential massive long arch of growth for Tesla dwarfs those current media fabricated dramas.

These two likely upcoming interviews have great potential to turn that channel of communication back on. For those of us who don't really need any help realizing how much of Tesla/Musk media coverage is gibberish, I put good odds on such interviews still being very entertaining and turning up some quite interesting and useful new information. There was a time when Elon was more known here on TMC for spilling the beans on exciting future developments during such interviews than having challenges with timelines. May or may not turn up something that "pops" the stock, but, if Elon is back to having time to doing these kinds of interviews, it would be a fun and effective FUD busting tool put back into use.

MKBHD's top video has about 10 million views, Joe Rogan's about 6 million. Let's see Elon break 10 million on both these channels : )
 
On twitter today, Elon informally agreed to do interviews with Joe Rogan and MKBHD ("will do" re each of them). In a tweet about Joe Rogan's show he suggested the timing would be after Model 3 production is steady at 5K/week.

Up until about 2016, Elon used to do quite a lot of long in depth discussions with empathetic hosts who gave him a chance to really give some perspective on both the current dramas projected on Tesla and the big picture and long term possibilities of the company. I think those interviews played a significant role in developing very positive public perception and interest in Elon, Tesla, and SpaceX. Such interviews also made it fun and easy to see that the potential massive long arch of growth for Tesla dwarfs those current media fabricated dramas.

These two likely upcoming interviews have great potential to turn that channel of communication back on. For those of us who don't really need any help realizing how much of Tesla/Musk media coverage is gibberish, I put good odds on such interviews still being very entertaining and turning up some quite interesting and useful new information. There was a time when Elon was more known here on TMC for spilling the beans on exciting future developments during such interviews than having challenges with timelines. May or may not turn up something that "pops" the stock, but, if Elon is back to having time to doing these kinds of interviews, it would be a fun and effective FUD busting tool put back into use.

MKBHD's top video has about 10 million views, Joe Rogan's about 6 million. Let's see Elon break 10 million on both these channels : )

I just want to reiterate how confident Elon is these days on that 5k goal.

Elon Musk is Going on Joe Rogan's Podcast Once He Hits a Major Tesla Goal | Inverse
 
On twitter today, Elon informally agreed to do interviews with Joe Rogan

Thanks to Andrea James, who may have played some role in making this happen.

Andrea James on Twitter

MKBHD's top video has about 10 million views, Joe Rogan's about 6 million. Let's see Elon break 10 million on both these channels : )

That's not a fair comparison - Joe's videos go on for a minimum of 2 hours.. pretty hard to retain viewership !! Plus he also distributes them in podcast audio form which has millions more listeners. However, it does not make MKBHD any less good (i.e. in his field of tech reviews).
 
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Thanks to Andrea James, who may have played some role in making this happen.

Andrea James on Twitter



That's not a fair comparison - Joe's videos go on for a minimum of 2 hours.. pretty hard to retain viewership !! Plus he also distributes them in podcast audio form which has millions more listeners. However, it does not make MKBHD any less good (i.e. in his field of tech reviews).

I think that Youtube counts videos just after a few seconds, so it should be very different from one another. Anyway, I'm also quite interested in Casey Neistat buying his first Tesla, that should reach millions of people alone, and from a different audience.
 
You didn’t get the hint that these discussions should take place in the neural network thread, eh?

Yes indeed, somewhere there needs to be an understanding of what each labeled object does. I suspect based on the video that Tesla still does this via hard coded rules, traditional software.

You really want to go even further. Not only do you want to have a NN have an understanding of different object’s motions and physics, but you want that understanding to feedback to the image recognition engine. You want other car behavior to feedback to the recognition engine. You want memory of previously travelled paths to feedback, etc.

And then you want continual learning, something that Tesla obviously does not do. Ie. You want the car’s NN to learn as it drives. But we are so far away from that.

Don’t get me wrong, what Karpathy is doing is absolutely right. It is a little bit depressing that he and thus Tesla only started this 11 months ago...

Thank you for the entire post. Perfect AI depth for this investor.
I think Tesla has been doing this longer than 11 months. But this guy is trained and connected into the community a bit more.

We may have blurry line differences on thread division. I have seen some threads lose critical mass and die, actually entire forums, from over catagorization.

So yes on the 101 wreck. We agree - high post frequency because emotional event driven discourse.

AI is a little different though. Not event driven and the post frequency should be much lower, unless two folks are arguing philosophy.

I like the investment forums for the diversity of thought that helps my understanding and use filter functions to control signal to noise - for example I can hardly remember what myusername is.

Please accept this as a vote for large, general, critical mass threads that use behavior to trigger action (filtering) rather than labeling and categorization based on what it looks like.

Yes fractals are real. But please don't throw me into the briar patch.
 
You didn’t get the hint that these discussions should take place in the neural network thread, eh?

Yes indeed, somewhere there needs to be an understanding of what each labeled object does. I suspect based on the video that Tesla still does this via hard coded rules, traditional software.

You really want to go even further. Not only do you want to have a NN have an understanding of different object’s motions and physics, but you want that understanding to feedback to the image recognition engine. You want other car behavior to feedback to the recognition engine. You want memory of previously travelled paths to feedback, etc.

And then you want continual learning, something that Tesla obviously does not do. Ie. You want the car’s NN to learn as it drives. But we are so far away from that.

Don’t get me wrong, what Karpathy is doing is absolutely right. It is a little bit depressing that he and thus Tesla only started this 11 months ago...

I believe this belongs in the investor thread so right here as its a matter that helps to evaluate and assess the real value of Tesla. So far the market has disregarded the value AP can bring and its also a prerequisite for ride services which will one day likely unlock another large bucket of revenue and create a new moat as well.

About the presentation: I really enjoyed it and would have loved if he would have gone deeper. One element he did not touch on is the way how neural nets work and decide. Thats an very interesting process that differs from the old way of coding as well. No doubts this approach is way closer to how our brain works and for me has a much higher likelihood to create superior results. However its a long way to go and 11 months is nothing in that respect.

I remember a Video where a BMW Manager explained that the defined 36 scenarios where they program their system to behave right. I did ask myself how you can put the entire world of driving with an uncounted amount of scenarios into 35 and believe if you perfect them, you can cover all. Thats just not realistic from my point of view.

Do we know how others (GM, Audi ect.) are doing it?
 
Investigators searched the private home of Audis CEO Stadler and one other Board Members. They are looking for prove that they committed fraud in relation to the Diesel Scandal.

In total 20 people from Audi are under investigation now.

They assume Stadler did wrong authentication. 210k Audi cars are sold in the US alone with assumed cheating SW.

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Staatsanwalt-besucht-Audi-Chef-Stadler-article20473782.html

P.S. as a side note, a lot of more positive reporting about Tesla today in Germany. FSD features, Production numbers, Analysts raising targets, technical chard analysis ect.
 
Cudo's to the Netherlands!

This statistics are pretty cool. Can't imagine how this will look like with the 3 in Europe next year.

Valid reasons for all manufacturers to worry.

Nissan Leaf
254
Tesla Model S
173
Tesla Model X
119
VW e-Golf
101
BMW i3
85
Opel Ampera-e
73
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
61
Renault Zoe
53
Others
31
BMW 530e
2


Model May Sales
1 Tesla Model S 254
2 BMW 5-Series 221
3 Mercedes E-Class 123
4 Volvo S/V90 117
5 Audi A6 85


Model May Sales
1 Tesla Model X 173
2 Volvo XC90 71
3 LR Range Rover Sport 30
4 LR Range Rover 26
5 BMW X5 18

Tesla Model S vs. Others in Class
Model May Sales
1 Tesla Model S 254
2 BMW 5-Series 221
3 Mercedes E-Class 123
4 Volvo S/V90 117
5 Audi A6 85

Tesla Model X vs. Others in Class
Model May Sales
1 Tesla Model X 173
2 Volvo XC90 71
3 LR Range Rover Sport 30
4 LR Range Rover 26
5 BMW X5 18

Tesla Model S Climbs To #1 In Netherlands, Nissan LEAF #1 In May | CleanTechnica
 
It just dawned on me, Elon's plan involes cannibalizing Tesla's own car business, maybe in ten twenty years. All the car manufacturers will probably go down with it.

The future of urban and suburban transportation will be mostly pods shooting through boring company tunnels. Long distance ones go through hyperloop. It's a closed, centrally scheduled transportation network that get around all the hurdle of self driving yet still achieve automous transportation. That's the future of the Tesla network.

Maybe in 30 years I will be protesting about Musk industries monopoly on transportation. Until then...
 
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