General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[jelloslug]

I would actually say "yes" to that question.

maybe

 

[avoigt]

Source: Fridman

Vehicle Deliveries: Past, Present, and Future

Based on the above equation, Tesla will achieve 1 million vehicle deliveries by November 2019

Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Projections | MIT Human-Centered AI

Lex Fridman on Twitter

https://hcai.mit.edu/tesla-vehicle-numbers/

 

[avoigt]

TESLA TO TAKE UP TO 50% OF US SMALL LUXURY MARKET — BMW, MERCEDES & AUDI GET DISRUPTED

https://evobsession.com/tesla-to-ta...uxury-market-bmw-mercedes-audi-get-disrupted/

We discussed this chards before but its good to see that more media is picking up on the dominance of Tesla in certain segments and the US to begin with.....

 

[uselesslogin]

So do I understand this correctly? If the stock is above $359.87 the bonds due in March are a non-issue and we even get minimal dilution? But if the stock is below $360 then Tesla needs almost $1 billion in cash to pay them off?

 

[Intl Professor]

The strength of any given scientific theory lies in its ability to accurately predict the outcome of a given, relevant experiment.

A very strong theory is for example the collection of physical laws governing electronics (Ohm's law etc.), that can predict the performance of an electronic circuit basically down to the accuracy of the measument.

Somewhat further down one finds short and medium range weather forecasts, that are often but not always correct (due to inherent limitations stemming from e.g. the chaotic nature of the birth of tropical storms).

Much further down and close to complete nonsense such as astrology, one finds the predictions of stock prices based on technical stock analysis (which is different from merely describing past performance such as volatility).

Just like the age-old idea that the movement of heavenly bodies (not counting tidal forces) influences Earthly events, there is a basically endless set of rules, of which one always can explain the past performance of a stock price. But when it comes to reliably predicting a future stock price from a technical analysis, qualifiers as 'tend', 'expect', 'typically' and 'likely' are all over the place. And over any useful span of time and set of stocks, no one can point to any significant, reliable stock price predictions based on technical analysis.

While astrology really has no connection to Earthly events, the technical analysis can appear at least superficially relevant for future stock prices.

The reason why the predictive strength of technical analysis is limited to the point of being useless, is that any mechanism that could cause a stock price to move in a given direction is canceled out by changes in supply and demand, when the market tries to cash in on that mechanism causing an equally sized movement in the opposite direction.

And just like horoscopes, stock price predictions based on technical analysis can still be entertaining reading.

Let the flame war ensue...

Nice overview of the problem.

I think there is a scientific answer to the original question about short time price movements (implied in some of the other responses). The mistake of sort term traders is short terming. In dynamic systems only a longer range prediction has a chance. That is why so much stake has been placed in predicting movements of the stars—stable long term trends. Musk always talks about physics first principles thinking. So it should be in investing. Learning from Buffet, I try to figure out what the company is doing—we can ultimately see that in the physical universe. Is it meeting each challenge or anticipating them? Cobalt expense, battery pack supply, recent trends in technology (AI), etc. These are things that are known or can be known. And collectively a lot is known by posters here. Anticipating the whims of buyers, and the ability or inability of retail investors like ourselves to game the market, is a wholly more complex problem as you correctly point out.

Keep it simple and scientific. Physics über alles. It is often said "mathematics is the queen of the sciences." Mathematics is not a science. At best when applied it is a great test of what logic can say about events. The experimental side of science is lost when we don't test possibilities with actualities we may end like TT007's flame up and flame out. Give me the slow but steady approach of the fabled Alaskan meteorologist in the radio blooper, "let me take a leak outside to see if it is freezing." (Or was that Audie?)

 

[Alketi]

@mulder1231, do you by chance have Adam Jonas's latest spreadsheet with Model 3 production guesses for Q2 - Q4? I remember you used to post his notes and analysis from time to time. Cheers.

 

[Mader Levap]

Complete information. Again, at the millisecond level, close enough.

Driving? Complete information? Really?

In rain/snow/storm? In night? With many objects on scene obscuring other, sometimes very important objects on scene (like child suddenly running out of corner of building)?

Claim that driving provides complete information is utterly false.

The reason why the predictive strength of technical analysis is limited to the point of being useless, is that any mechanism that could cause a stock price to move in a given direction is canceled out by changes in supply and demand, when the market tries to cash in on that mechanism causing an equally sized movement in the opposite direction.

You are trying reallly, really hard to avoid saying that market is inherently irrational, aren't you.

 

[generalenthu]

Source: Fridman

Vehicle Deliveries: Past, Present, and Future

Based on the above equation, Tesla will achieve 1 million vehicle deliveries by November 2019

Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Projections | MIT Human-Centered AI

Lex Fridman on Twitter

Tesla Vehicle Deliveries and Projections | MIT Human-Centered AI

This picture is super helpful. If Tesla starts FSD feature release in Q3, i suppose about 20% additional buyers will upgrade right away. I believe the current take rate is ~10%. So that is about 30,000 * 4,000 or $120 Million in cash / deferred revenue in Q3, conservatively speaking.

 

[30seconds]

accurate headline

Aston Martin’s Amped-Up, $240,000 Rapide Is Still Not as Quick as a Tesla

 

[Mike Smith]

The Street is running an article saying the Chinese tariffs announced today will hurt Tesla because they rely so heavily on Chinese suppliers. In fact barely any of their parts come from China - Elon has specifically said this.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/art...est-tariffs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

 

[Skryll]

So do I understand this correctly? If the stock is above $359.87 the bonds due in March are a non-issue and we even get minimal dilution? But if the stock is below $360 then Tesla needs almost $1 billion in cash to pay them off?

'In March' means 2019 ? I think already end of 2018 we could be at twice that.

 

[Lessmog]

'In March' means 2019 ? I think already end of 2018 we could be at twice that.

Not been following at all close, but iirc someone remarked that the critical date was in December 2018 for an SP near 360, to decide how the bonds evaluate.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Driving? Complete information? Really?

In rain/snow/storm? In night? With many objects on scene obscuring other, sometimes very important objects on scene (like child suddenly running out of corner of building)?

Claim that driving provides complete information is utterly false.

That's why I qualified it by saying "on the millisecond level". I believe that at any time you have complete information on things that might affect you in the next millisecond. If you string enough milliseconds together....

 

[dc_h]

My view on electric Tesla competitors, with expected first deliveries, volume and closest Tesla model:

2018, Jaguar i-Pace, ~20k/year, Model Y
2019, Audi e-tron, ~30k/year, Model X
2019, Mercedes EQC, ~30k/year (?), Model Y
2020, Audi e-tron Sportback, ~30k/year, Model S
2020, (Volvo) Polestar 2, ~20k/year, Model 3
2020, BMW iX3, ~50k/year (?), Model Y
2020, Porsche Taycan, ~20k/year, Model S

It adds up to about 210k vehicles per year - less than what Tesla will produce this year. Especially the Model 3 has very little competition on the horizon.

Just to add market share in the different segments in 2020:

Model S, 50k/year vs others, 50k/year: 50% market share
Model X, 50k/year vs others, 30k/year: 63.5% market share
Model 3, 480k/year vs others, 20k/year: 96% market share
Model Y, 250k/year (?) vs others, 100k/year: 71.4% market share

Wrong!

The competition is bmw m3, Audi A4, Mercedes c series and Infiniti Q50, and then Camry and Prius.

 

[N5329K]

The Street is running an article saying the Chinese tariffs announced today will hurt Tesla because they rely so heavily on Chinese suppliers. In fact barely any of their parts come from China - Elon has specifically said this.

Tesla, Boeing and Merck Among Companies Hurt by Latest Tariffs

Tesla's Shanghai GF will be in a free trade zone and supply the domestic Chinese market with luxury EV's...a booming market. So Tesla would likely not suffer much collateral damage in a tit-for-tat trade war.
Robin

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla's Shanghai GF will be in a free trade zone and supply the domestic Chinese market with luxury EV's...a booming market. So Tesla would likely not suffer much collateral damage in a tit-for-tat trade war.
Robin

But that won't be producing cars for years. So they could suffer from the trade war in the short term.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Tesla made over $2 billion in China last year, doubled sales and expanded retail/charging presence | Feb. 23rd 2018
Source electrek

It's the world's largest vehicle market by far, though by value the picture is less skewed, I think. If you mean to compete gobally, being present and successful probably helps.

 

[AudubonB]

...the fabled Alaskan meteorologist in the radio blooper, "let me take a leak outside to see if it is freezing." (Or was that Audie?)

At least I manage to make it outside first.

 

[N5329K]

But that won't be producing cars for years. So they could suffer from the trade war in the short term.

This would be an excellent time to break ground on the Shanghai GF for sure.
Robin

 

[Intl Professor]

At least I manage to make it outside first.

A Ukraine-born colleague at a Russian language club party regaled us with tales from his childhood. He claimed his family invented frozen food. They would make a pile of borscht and store it outside safely for later use throughout the winter. Not a skier, he didn't laugh at my question, "is that the origin of the saying, 'never eat yellow borscht?'"

After the high hopes and then a cliffhanger ending today, I'm deteriorating massively. Time for some shuffling-jacks.