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DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Agree, Rob handled the host's concerns very well. I find the bear argument that competitors entering the EV market in the next two years will significantly impact Tesla to be interesting. The host, to me, seems to view the EV market as being a zero sum game. In response, Rob did well to note the innovator's dilemma they are up against, but the host opinion seems set. Overall, the bears are giving the incumbent automakers a lot less scrutiny in their EV endeavors.
The Spiegel interview was interesting as well. I was not aware that he has increased his short position since opening an initial position around $90.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I feel much better hearing is bear case. I think he says "maybe" about 40 times in trying to explain why Tesla will fail. Maybe, batteries are cheaper for other OEMS, Maybe the gigafactory will be beaten out by a magical battery chemistry that doesnt yet exist, maybe competitors will actually innovate for the first time in a decade. maybe, maybe, maybe.
He then goes on to say that he is not a fanatic like Tesla longs about his short position and if he had known Tesla would just go up for 4 years, that he would have been long all that time and only put a short position on now. He is so underwater that he does not even realize that he is a fanatic anti Tesla short. He is mindbogglingly blind to his own fanaticism. If you have been shorting a stock from 90 up to 380 over the last 4 years, then you are fanatical nut job, period.
And even knowing that Longs are fanatical, you should know not to mess with a stock that has that kind of following, in fact, you should be betting on it going up forever because people are stubborn as hell.
I didn't see the Spiegel interview, but he did admit a few months back that he had to trim his short position slightly to meet margin requirements. He's pretty deep underwater. Last year he had dollar-cost averaged to ~$250 @ 10% of his entire portfolio. When advised to cover, he proudly proclaimed, only when TSLA was bankrupt. There's zero insight to be gleaned from his opinions.
Edit: Spiegel (aka Logical Thought) had been talking down TSLA since it was $35. I listened to him and sold my holdings when TSLA rose past $50 in 2013. Biggest mistake of my life! It's been painful trying to reacquire those 200 share over the years.
bdy0627
Active Member
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis by Rob Maurer on Apple Podcasts
January 5th podcast has his ramp estimate.
I think the shorts are feeling bolder than ever. TSLA is approaching 350 again, and all the major automakers are announcing huge investments into EVs with lots of models in the future. Shorts probably believe that the Tesla bankruptcy they have predicted is now guaranteed to be just a few years away, because the legacy automakers will finally overwhelm Tesla like they have been predicting all along. But, as many intelligent people on this forum have already pointed out, EVs are not a zero sum game. All passenger vehicles/light trucks ten years from now will be EVs, which is over 80 million sales/year globally. And not all manufacturers have the same appeal and social prestige. Tesla is the new Gucci, the new Apple. If someone has a choice between an equivalently priced Ford and Tesla, most will choose the Tesla. That is also assuming the same level of technology and rate of advancement, which we all know will not be the case. Tesla has the brightest minds now, and they will always be a step ahead of the average automaker, even if they don't remain the absolute leader. And then there is Tesla Energy, which will become Yuge all on its own. The shorts are really screwed because they think they are smart and see the obvious. Unfortunately for them, they aren't actually smart enough to see the big picture.
bdy0627
Active Member
Fair points on Maurer's estimate. I haven't checked out Ben Sullin. Maurer does base his estimate on the Model X ramp, but Maurer's ramp numbers for the Model 3 are much higher than what Tesla accomplished with the X. He is extrapolating the Model 3 ramp based upon percentages achieved with the Model X ramp, once it was actually underway. He also uses "Tesla speak" to infer steady production rates rather than using burst rates as steady rates. His estimate may prove to be overly conservative, but so far it has proven to be pretty close. If Tesla proves to be more efficient this time around, that's great, but in my opinion don't just expect it or bet on it. Maurer's ramp still yields solid production by the end of Q1, and because it is grounded in Tesla's previous ramp history, it should be quite achievable. If you go with his expectation, the chance you will be severely disappointed is probably low. It leaves room to be pleasantly surprised. I personally think it represents a realistic, achievable, and moderately beatable estimate. I will be very disappointed if they undershoot his estimate. I will be very happy if they outperform it, particularly if they get near Munster's numbers.
bdy0627
Active Member
Yep, bears are making HUGE assumptions about incumbent automakers ability to take market share from Tesla.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
As we've had many discussion on what Q1 delivery #s will be, I wonder what are people's thoughts on how the delivery # could translate to PPS.
For example, I personally think Jonas's 8k Q1 estimate is very pessimistic, yet he also anticipates TSLA to run up to $400 then fall down to $200. I'm having a hard time seeing how TSLA could run up to $400 if they only produce 8k in Q1. And to a lesser degree, I also don't see TSLA cracking $400 before E/Q1, without any more concrete good news on M3/GGF345/Semi/MY, etc.
For example, I personally think Jonas's 8k Q1 estimate is very pessimistic, yet he also anticipates TSLA to run up to $400 then fall down to $200. I'm having a hard time seeing how TSLA could run up to $400 if they only produce 8k in Q1. And to a lesser degree, I also don't see TSLA cracking $400 before E/Q1, without any more concrete good news on M3/GGF345/Semi/MY, etc.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Here is Part II to the other article. It appears there are some thinkers outside SA, I say that as dry humor
Clearly down where the rubber meets the road, city governments are acting responsible or at least talking about change. Part 2: Your Car of the Future is No Car at All
bdy0627
Active Member
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Just generalizing here, but on the Tesla.com site, there are no used or new models (S or X) waiting to be sold. Then, after a cup of decaf coffee, I think bact to the comment by the employee with his M3 telling me they were receiving a thousand orders a day back in September (2017) at the Fremont plant ~ and I am wondering if he was in fact not blowing exhaust up my tail pipe.
Is the Chevy Bolt having trouble keeping up with demand? I know their numbers are increasing, but I am not hearing that they just cannot make them fast enough. Yes, sitting on the sales lot is different than sitting on a reservation wait list.
Any bear looking for fresh new meat wish to comment? Or, is this really old meat?
Is the Chevy Bolt having trouble keeping up with demand? I know their numbers are increasing, but I am not hearing that they just cannot make them fast enough. Yes, sitting on the sales lot is different than sitting on a reservation wait list.
Any bear looking for fresh new meat wish to comment? Or, is this really old meat?
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Don't encourage them, it's been nice and rational around here lately.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm seeing 18 S and no X on the Tesla site and about 90+ on the consolidator sites.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yes IIRC Jonas said that TSLA can hit $400 on M3 in 1H'18, then as 2H'18 CapEx looms, it could drop back down to $200. That scenario doesn't seem to jive with his estimate of 8k in Q1, at least to me. If on 4/3, Tesla says they only produced 8k in Q1, especially after Tesla already delaying the 5k/wk target twice, I think the PPS will be depressed throughout Q2'18, and won't recover until at least July, so I don't see when TSLA could hit that $400 Jonas target in 1H'18, if the M3 delivery hits his Q1 8k target.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
2,737 New Chevrolet Bolt EVs for sale
https://www.cars.com/for-sale/searc...=90745&stkTypId=28880&searchSource=QUICK_FORM
If Chevy sells 3k Bolts in January in the USA then having ~3k Bolts in stock means the turnover is fantastic.
If Chevy sells 1k Bolts in January then the turnover rate is OK.
January 2016 Chevy sold 1162 Bolts.
Darn that 350 resistance level
Worst case they can dump them whereever the Model 3 is not available yet, like GM Earmarks 5,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs For South Korea This Year
So thats like reimporting LG batteries?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Worst case they can dump them whereever the Model 3 is not available yet, like GM Earmarks 5,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs For South Korea This Year
So thats like reimporting LG batteries?
They can dump them anywhere there is $17k in subsidies for BEVs Made in the USA and where GM has a distribution channel.
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