Maybe China with an attached investment. But he was probably just referencing the 5000/wk. He would have been fairly comfortable two weeks ago to being able to burst to 5000.
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Maybe China with an attached investment. But he was probably just referencing the 5000/wk. He would have been fairly comfortable two weeks ago to being able to burst to 5000.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Analysts feud over Tesla production numbers
Ross absolutely demolished the shameless coal investor yesterday. It was good for everyone to know the conflict of interest on the other side.
Any attempts by bears to divide bulls must be resisted.
Ross absolutely demolished the shameless coal investor yesterday. It was good for everyone to know the conflict of interest on the other side.
Any attempts by bears to divide bulls must be resisted.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Chip has been an ardent Tesla supporter. People come from different cultures, everybody has unique backgrounds and their own way of communication, and diversity should be celebrated, not suppressed. The fact that Chip did not verbatim say how you would argue the case is irrelevant. Chip has relentlessly helped Tesla get out facts and fight FUD. Investors would be wise to support this diverse, grassroots movement.
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As people may have seen, Gene Munster is predicting Tesla will hit 6K/week Model 3 production by end of September and also be modestly profitable by then.
He also makes the point — which I think is obvious but most people overlook — that reservations are likely to increase as the Model 3 hits showrooms and new owners become evangelists, talking to their friends and neighbors about how awesome the Model 3 is and allowing them to experience it for themselves:
He also makes the point — which I think is obvious but most people overlook — that reservations are likely to increase as the Model 3 hits showrooms and new owners become evangelists, talking to their friends and neighbors about how awesome the Model 3 is and allowing them to experience it for themselves:
- Tesla reported that the number of net Model 3 reservations at the end of Q2 stood at roughly 420,000 (on top of the 28,386 delivered to date). We see this as a positive; we had expected the reservation list to shrink meaningfully given the production delays. Now, we expect reservations to increase as more owners become evangelists for the product and cars become available for test drives in Tesla stores. Thoughts on Tesla’s Q2 Production and Delivery Numbers | Loup Ventures
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I think people should not ignore some of the information which has come out, which has sort of gotten lost in the noise. Apparently the Model 3 general assembly line only has 50 steps, which is supposedly (I haven't independently verified this) significantly lower than a typical general assembly line. (Can anyone with auto GA manufacturing experience verify this or demonstrate that it's incorrect?)
We know the wiring harness is a massive simplification.
My point here is that even with all the craziness about fluffbots and tents and scrapping equipment that didn't work and building lines from scrap, it looks like Tesla's got a GA line which is structurally cheaper to operate than a standard GA line. This is an advantage. And replicating it will replicate the advantage, without replicating all the craziness it took to get there.
We know the wiring harness is a massive simplification.
My point here is that even with all the craziness about fluffbots and tents and scrapping equipment that didn't work and building lines from scrap, it looks like Tesla's got a GA line which is structurally cheaper to operate than a standard GA line. This is an advantage. And replicating it will replicate the advantage, without replicating all the craziness it took to get there.
Another casualty of Elon's high standards.
If one of the advantages Tesla has is the knowledge of how to build the machine that builds the machine. Then replicating that would of course be much cheaper than designing/building it the first time. This idea that car's built the old way have defects due to sloppy work should be dramatically reduced.
The old saying you don't want a car built on a Friday should no longer hold true.
The old saying you don't want a car built on a Friday should no longer hold true.
Tesla Is Up 1,700% in 8 Years, and 1 Analyst Says It Can Add Another 1,000%
(...)
"Add it all up and Keeney said her price target for Tesla "is a rough doubling over the next five years, just based on our expectation for the electric-vehicle market alone. Take into account the autonomous opportunity and we think the stock could go to $4,000."
Tesla Is Up 1,700% in 8 Years, and 1 Analyst Says It Can Add Another 1,000%
(...)
"Add it all up and Keeney said her price target for Tesla "is a rough doubling over the next five years, just based on our expectation for the electric-vehicle market alone. Take into account the autonomous opportunity and we think the stock could go to $4,000."
Tesla Is Up 1,700% in 8 Years, and 1 Analyst Says It Can Add Another 1,000%
ValueAnalyst
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"The carmaker’s short sellers, those who put money on a stock declining in value, lost roughly $2.5 billion on paper in the month of June, according to data from Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at financial technology firm, S3 Partners. The declines come due to a 18% increase in Tesla shares during the month."
As Tesla Reaches Model 3 Production Targets, Short Sellers Lose $2.5 Billion
As Tesla Reaches Model 3 Production Targets, Short Sellers Lose $2.5 Billion
Someone needs to find a way to block all those crypto twitter bots from spamming the crap out of Elon's twitter feed.
It is amazing how much the signal to noise jumps, with just a little effort. Ignore/Block until the feed is clean.
Between the crypto bots and the ANALysts that troll Elon, I am so glad that I don't do Twitter. Horrible libel and slander. I can't believe Elon doesn't block them.
Ulmo
Active Member
The so-called "independent board" including the "independent board members" get 50,000 shares each three times a year. There are 9 board members. On that schedule, every decade they pay out $5 billion to the board of directors, assuming the pay stays the same and stock price at $370. Elon Musk's portion is actually much higher than that.
As of right now, Tesla's debt problems would vanish if the board of directors returned that $5 billion and stopped taking 50,000 shares each three times a year. It's half a billion dollars a year, and for Q3Q4 that would make Tesla downright profitable, and they could even restart the Model Y, Tesla Semi, and the revamp programs for the existing models without having to scrape pennies. They would still need a decent management structure to make sure there isn't any overspending. I don't know how that works in a flat employee structure.
What did Doug Field really do?
I have been reading tweets from factory employees celebrating that they get rid of the "harassing" long-time employees. It sounds like a shakedown to me, moving citizens out to replace them all with foreigners. There's something fishy going on. Tesla used to be transparent and innovative, but now it just seems opaque.
I hope they continue the EV programs and do well, but Elon claiming to be worried about the factory all day every day seems false when he's busy having a party in Spain, and the little I do see going on at Tesla looks messed up. It seems floundering. Some sections work fairly right, such as their upcoming Energy division, but others just goof off, like the auto section. It fits my purchasing experience with my car. It also fits with me not getting my IR email July 2. I hope my shares find a way to become profitable enough to catch up with the progress the rest of the economy did.
As of right now, Tesla's debt problems would vanish if the board of directors returned that $5 billion and stopped taking 50,000 shares each three times a year. It's half a billion dollars a year, and for Q3Q4 that would make Tesla downright profitable, and they could even restart the Model Y, Tesla Semi, and the revamp programs for the existing models without having to scrape pennies. They would still need a decent management structure to make sure there isn't any overspending. I don't know how that works in a flat employee structure.
What did Doug Field really do?
I have been reading tweets from factory employees celebrating that they get rid of the "harassing" long-time employees. It sounds like a shakedown to me, moving citizens out to replace them all with foreigners. There's something fishy going on. Tesla used to be transparent and innovative, but now it just seems opaque.
I hope they continue the EV programs and do well, but Elon claiming to be worried about the factory all day every day seems false when he's busy having a party in Spain, and the little I do see going on at Tesla looks messed up. It seems floundering. Some sections work fairly right, such as their upcoming Energy division, but others just goof off, like the auto section. It fits my purchasing experience with my car. It also fits with me not getting my IR email July 2. I hope my shares find a way to become profitable enough to catch up with the progress the rest of the economy did.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Trip has come up with so much over the top nonsense repeatedly that he's become a joke to those who know better. That does not deserve celebration. He was not particularly effective in this debate.
You're right; Musk effectively told us that the exit run rate is higher than 5000/w. How? Simple mathematics. For a full week, 7 days, the lines produced 5000 cars. But we also know that they were working that whole week to speed up the line. So at the beginning of the week, they were producing at less than the full rate, and to make up the difference, at the end of the week they had to be producing at greater than the average rate. He also said they'd be at 6000/w in July. You can't get there by producing less than 5000/w. So your innuendo is simply incorrect.
Not in real real world. Tesla loaded up to complete final inspection on 5000 cars last week. This takes production from the week before and the week following the burst week. How much maintenance was done during burst week? How many S/X were painted?
Musk said they would exit 2017 making 5000/week and produce a half a million vehicles in 2018. At that time I said they would produce about 250,000 vehicles in 2017, that Alien Dreadnaught was largely b.s. Using Musk as a source of predicting production is repeatedly proven to be faulty.
A good guess at Tesla's real run rate today is 3000 - 3500. They will improve as fast as they can. They can't know how quickly they can improve.
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