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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Tesla plans to add fourth dealership on Long Island

Tesla has seven locations in New York State, including three on Long Island. A Manhasset location offers sales and service, while “galleries” in East Hampton and Huntington Station are only for viewing vehicles.

Tesla has already met its cap under state law of five sales facilities, but a bill to expand that number was introduced in the legislature this month.
 
If Tesla is listening, or someone here has an inside track to management selections for stores/service center ~ please pass on Olympia, Washington. Ideal spot just abandoned by Toyota in area car shopping mall for freeway visability and sniveling about taxes. Fantastic location for handing off M3s and annual service:)

Okay, saves me the drive to Seattle, but I am not kidding, a grate place for not advertising too:)
 
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This news from my home state doesn't specifiy Tesla (although I have to think they are among the bidders), so I'm putting it here (and cross-posting to Global Warming thread) rather than Market Action: In Colorado, a glimpse of renewable energy’s insanely cheap future.

The key take-away: "In Colorado, getting energy from new renewable energy projects with storage is cheaper [than] getting it from existing coal plants."

The times, they are a-changin'.
 
Where is Tesla in this race? For how long will they still need Cobalt?

How long will Tesla still need Cobalt? No sure way to know as they play their battery chemistry and improvement path so close to the vest.
JB stated back in 2016 that Co supply was of more concern to him than Li, and suggested they were going to try to increase the amount of nickel used in their cathodes to reduce amount of cobalt in their NCA cells.
A good primer on leading cell chemistries and percentages of metals is in this link to Electrek back in 2016.
Breakdown of raw materials in Tesla’s batteries and possible bottlenecks

It shows typical NCA chemistry cells contain 15% cobalt, 5% Al and 80% Ni. Back then Co price was $27,000 per tonne. Nickel around $10,000 per tonne. Tesla NCA breakdown % likely is slightly different. If cell chemistries without Co can match performance of EV batteries with Co, that is both a substantial cost saving as well as eliminating a serious supply constraint and PR problem. The savings which are possible by eliminating Co are too big to be ignored by companies trying to get to lowest possible KWh battery costs.
Note the LMNO chemistry is not shown in the Electrek article, probably because it wasn't in commercial use already. There are likely several competing paths toward minimizing or eliminating Co in EV batteries.

The next is total speculation. I'm guessing that these no cobalt chemistries have not become viable until very recently and would be too big a risk for Tesla to use for what we believe is the much improved energy density for cells planned for Semi and Roadster. I think perhaps they are being developed for two or three years farther out as a component of additional cell/pack KWh cost cuts by 2021.
IMO from studying online Nano One information and other sources, replacing one Li cathode chemistry with a different one is not as huge a production change as one might think once sufficient testing and tweaking is complete.* The cathode manufacturers would provide newer cathodes in same physical size package to Panasonic/Tesla and others. Moving from liquid electrolyte to a solid would seem to be a more difficult change as the machinery used for physical prep and rolling of the cells would need redesign.

* Jeff Dahl's group have developed greatly superior testing methodology and hardware than what has been available until now. That testing capability should give Tesla a good edge over competitors in determining when a revised chemistry (or nano level improvements to same chemistry) are ready to go ahead to production.
 
Waiting4M3post: 2515245 said:
and the panel gaps :rolleyes:

:-D best one ever.. roflmao


tenor.gif
 
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How long will Tesla still need Cobalt? No sure way to know as they play their battery chemistry and improvement path so close to the vest.
JB stated back in 2016 that Co supply was of more concern to him than Li, and suggested they were going to try to increase the amount of nickel used in their cathodes to reduce amount of cobalt in their NCA cells.
A good primer on leading cell chemistries and percentages of metals is in this link to Electrek back in 2016.
Breakdown of raw materials in Tesla’s batteries and possible bottlenecks

It shows typical NCA chemistry cells contain 15% cobalt, 5% Al and 80% Ni. Back then Co price was $27,000 per tonne. Nickel around $10,000 per tonne. Tesla NCA breakdown % likely is slightly different. If cell chemistries without Co can match performance of EV batteries with Co, that is both a substantial cost saving as well as eliminating a serious supply constraint and PR problem. The savings which are possible by eliminating Co are too big to be ignored by companies trying to get to lowest possible KWh battery costs.
Note the LMNO chemistry is not shown in the Electrek article, probably because it wasn't in commercial use already. There are likely several competing paths toward minimizing or eliminating Co in EV batteries.

The next is total speculation. I'm guessing that these no cobalt chemistries have not become viable until very recently and would be too big a risk for Tesla to use for what we believe is the much improved energy density for cells planned for Semi and Roadster. I think perhaps they are being developed for two or three years farther out as a component of additional cell/pack KWh cost cuts by 2021.
IMO from studying online Nano One information and other sources, replacing one Li cathode chemistry with a different one is not as huge a production change as one might think once sufficient testing and tweaking is complete.* The cathode manufacturers would provide newer cathodes in same physical size package to Panasonic/Tesla and others. Moving from liquid electrolyte to a solid would seem to be a more difficult change as the machinery used for physical prep and rolling of the cells would need redesign.

* Jeff Dahl's group have developed greatly superior testing methodology and hardware than what has been available until now. That testing capability should give Tesla a good edge over competitors in determining when a revised chemistry (or nano level improvements to same chemistry) are ready to go ahead to production.
I see cobalt following similar path as oil, cheap oil is mainly available in the middle east, causing all kind of geopolitical issue for the US in the last few decades, but as price went up, people figured out how to extract oil in the US such as off-shore and fracking, even though at a higher price, but still profitable. And as the market for oil exploration and extraction expanded in the US, the economy of scale improved and the cost of those techniques also dropped, and remained sustainable even though oil price has dropped below its peak.

As price and demand for cobalt rises, there will be more available sources, from places not as politically controversial. The cost of these new sources may initially be high but will come down over time as they become more established and gain economy of scale.
 
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