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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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while, clearly still a criticism and voicing frustration, seen in context, I don't think Wozniak's comment was meant in as broad or harsh a manner as the headline implies. here's the context, from the same article,


Shortly afterwards, Wozniak said, he and his wife coughed up the money for an upgrade.

"Then, they came up with some sensors that Elon Musk said would drive itself across itself the country, by the end of 2016,” Wozniak said, referring to Tesla's much talked-about "summon" function that Elon Musk also promoted...

..."Oh, I had to have that," said Wozniak, before mentioning Tesla’s breakup with Israeli sensor-maker Mobileye:

“And then [..] they got rid of their sensor company and put in new sensors; instead of one camera, eight cameras. And that car [was supposed to] drive itself across the country by the end of 2017."

...

Wozniak's trust was dented.

"I believed that stuff."

"Now, I don't believe anything Elon Musk or Tesla says. But I still love the car."

“I'm sure the next car will come out and Elon's promise will be that [this is the car that delivers]."

It would be interesting to know what Woz actually said about Tesla and Mobileye parting ways. The article says he mentioned it, but, does not include what he said. If Woz has even a modest level of awareness of what happened, his description of events might of softened his headline comment even more. Tesla/Elon may have been unwise to assume Mobileye would just let them continue to buy their equipment, but, the impact Mobileye not doing this has had in delaying autopilot development is understandable as a deviation from plan.
 
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while, clearly still a criticism and voicing frustration, seen in context, I don't think Wozniak's comment was meant in as broad or harsh a manner as the headline implies. here's the context, from the same article,


Shortly afterwards, Wozniak said, he and his wife coughed up the money for an upgrade.

"Then, they came up with some sensors that Elon Musk said would drive itself across itself the country, by the end of 2016,” Wozniak said, referring to Tesla's much talked-about "summon" function that Elon Musk also promoted...


...

Wozniak's trust was dented.

"I believed that stuff."

"Now, I don't believe anything Elon Musk or Tesla says. But I still love the car."

“I'm sure the next car will come out and Elon's promise will be that [this is the car that delivers]."

I don't know Woz's state of mind or history with Elon and all that, but none of his Tesla-specific criticism seem beyond reasonable. There's a lot to like from both investor and product perspectives, but it's hard to argue that some of Elon's superlatives and timelines don't help the brand. The claims about FSD milestones probably being the worst of these.
 
Does anyone know how much Tesla is spending on its own electricity bill?
I'd be curious to know how much they would save, eventually, with the GFs full of panels and the whole network of Superchargers too.

probably less than they would save if they ramped up faster instead. But I hope they prioritize for it anyways at some point
 
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NFLX already up more than TSLA entire 2017 year ...

I personally don't know enough about NFLX and Amazon to place my precious retirement money into those stocks. I don't know if they have peaked. At least with Tesla, I believe there is a 99% chance of a 10 bagger from here, so that is where I'm putting my money, even if it is a little slower to climb....
 
Carbon Fiber from Plants Instead of Oil: Not Just Greener but Cheaper

Carbon fiber’s large ecological footprint centers around the way in which acrylonitrile, the base material for commercial carbon fiber, is currently made: from petroleum, using a process that uses quite a bit of energy, requires an expensive catalyst, and yields hydrogen cyanide, a toxic byproduct. This also helps explain carbon fiber’s high price, as just the acrylonitrile itself—two pounds of which are required for each pound of finished product—accounts for more than half of the production cost of carbon fiber.
 
1. Renault-Nissan Alliance (119.195 units)

2. BYD Group (113.949)

3. BAIC Group (104.536)

4. Geely Group (103.194)

5. Tesla (103.122)

6. BMW Group (103.080)

7. Volkswagen Group (70.314)

8. SAIC Group (56.149)

9. General Motors (55.188)

10. Toyota (50.883)

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/01/2017-global-sales-byoem.html#comment-form

Jose insist on treating the Alliance of Nissan and Renault as a single company.

And conflates BEVs, low AER PHEVs and high AER PHEVs.

But still interesting statistics nonetheless.

Additional commentary in link by Jose Pontes.
 
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1. Renault-Nissan Alliance (119.195 units)

2. BYD Group (113.949)

3. BAIC Group (104.536)

4. Geely Group (103.194)

5. Tesla (103.122)

6. BMW Group (103.080)

7. Volkswagen Group (70.314)

8. SAIC Group (56.149)

9. General Motors (55.188)

10. Toyota (50.883)

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/01/2017-global-sales-byoem.html#comment-form

Jose insist on treating the Alliance of Nissan and Renault as a single company.

And conflates BEVs, low AER PHEVs and high AER PHEVs.

But still interesting statistics nonetheless.

Additional commentary in link by Jose Pontes.
Man, Tesla really needs to top this list for 2018. Look at all that crowding for third position.
 
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This gives me an idea - and, as it's not always clear with my posts, I'm serious about this one:
Someone clever in blog-videos ought to tape an experiment wherein a Tesla is placed on dyno test rollers in a small, closed garage, and have it run at 60 mph for an hour with some accompanying monkeys, rabbits and canaries...perhaps some meerkats and other typical fuzzywuzzies, while from the adjacent glassed-in observation room, the white-coated technicians with their clipboards frustratingly watch...nothing. The video ought not to state the obvious - just let the viewer connect the dots.

If the video doesn't somehow tip viewers that this would be lethal if it was an ICE car on the dyno instead of an EV, 50% or more will never get it. 75% of the 18 - 30 year olds, most of whom can't tell you who the last 4 or 5 presidents were!
 
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I would just multiple the number sold by ASP and resort the list. I think it would be very revealing. Apple doesnt sell anywhere near the most cell phones, but commands the lion share of the profits.
Yeah, I get that. You could also multiply by average kWh per vehicle to see who gets the li-ion share.
<groan here>
But seriously, Tesla should be cranking out the Model 3 this year and more than double Renault-Nissan.
 
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This gives me an idea - and, as it's not always clear with my posts, I'm serious about this one:

Someone clever in blog-videos ought to tape an experiment wherein a Tesla is placed on dyno test rollers in a small, closed garage, and have it run at 60 mph for an hour with some accompanying monkeys, rabbits and canaries...perhaps some meerkats and other typical fuzzywuzzies,
while from the adjacent glassed-in observation room, the white-coated technicians with their clipboards frustratingly watch...nothing.

The video ought not to state the obvious - just let the viewer connect the dots.

Who's on?
Kittens?
 
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Me too. But in trying to understand theses ratings compared to other auto lease ABSs, would the percentage of hard credit enhancements for the various classes of notes be a relevant measure? Your link stated:

"At closing, the Class A notes, the Class B notes, the Class C notes, the Class D notes, and the Class E notes are expected to benefit from 31.25%, 24.65%, 20.05%, 16.15%, and 10.95% of hard credit enhancement, respectively. Hard credit enhancement for the notes consists of a combination of overcollateralization, a non-declining reserve account and subordination, except for the Class E notes which do not benefit from subordination. The notes may also benefit from excess spread."

A cursory search found recent Nissan and Hyundai auto lease ABS registrations.

Nissan sold various sub-categories (varying interest %) on just Class A notes:"At closing, the Class A notes benefit from 17.50% of hard credit enhancement. Hard credit enhancement for the notes consists of a combination of overcollateralization and non-declining reserve account. The notes will also benefit from excess spread." Moody's Assigns Definitive Ratings to Nissan Auto Lease Trust 2017-B Notes

Hyundai sold sub-categories of Class A notes and a single category of Class B notes " At closing, the Class A notes and Class B notes are expected to benefit from 17.50% and 13.00% of hard credit enhancement, respectively. Hard credit enhancement for the notes consists of a combination of overcollateralization and non-declining reserve account. The Class A notes also benefit from subordination. The notes will also benefit from excess spread." Moody's Assigns Definitive Ratings to Hyundai Auto Lease Securitization Trust 2017-C

The higher expected hard credit enhancement for Tesla may be because Moody's think EVs have a greater residual value risk. Moody's: Higher residual value uncertainty a key risk in US auto lease ABS backed by battery electric vehicles

Nissan's and Hyundai's coupon rates are below Tesla's Warehouse rate; it will be interesting to see where Tesla's first auto lease ABS prices.
 
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