General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ggr]

did this happen ever before that elon did not answer questions? really loved the letter but this concerns me a bit

Yes, he has occasionally refused to answer, answered obliquely, or even dissed the reporter for asking a stupid question.

 

[Starno]

That's how I like my Elon.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Concerns me too - not really in terms of the company's future, but more in that the headlines will probably be negative about his behaviour tomorrow!

If John Legere of T-Mobile can repeatedly drop the F-bomb in public and personally troll AT&T events at CES, I don’t think Elon’s words will have much long term effect.

Insane statements at rallies and debates didn’t stop Donald J. Trump from becoming POTUS either.

 

[anon]

I was disappointed that nobody asked specifically about the timeline for the coast-to-coast FSD update. Or maybe I missed it...

 

[smythey]

Downloadable audio of the call, for those that prefer an offline copy.

 

[Tenable]

If John Legere of T-Mobile can repeatedly drop the F-bomb in public and personally troll AT&T events at CES, I don’t think Elon’s words will have much long term effect.

Insane statements at rallies and debates didn’t stop Donald J. Trump from becoming POTUS either.

This is where we are? Defending Elons actions by comparing him to Trumps public speaking antics and Tesla to what is effectively a dividend yielding utility. I have faith in Elon, I'm very long TSLA, I liked some of the content on its own merits.. But I am surprised my feelings are so far removed from others here. I suppose I should be hopeful that the world will perceive this call as many of you do.

The world won't end, but this CC didnt feel productive.

 

[RobStark]

I was disappointed that nobody asked specifically about the timeline for the coast-to-coast FSD update. Or maybe I missed it...

Elon did say that the tech for Tesla Network will be ready by the end of next year, then it is up to the regulators.

Superbattery is always 5 years away.

It seems Full Self Drive is always 12-18 months away.

 

[ChrisA]

I was a buy-side analyst for 16 years. I've been on thousands of earnings calls. The analysts questions were lame and I'm glad Elon moved on when he did. If there is any question about the wisdom of him moving to the youtuber, it was answered when he went back to the sell side and Ben from Baird asked the lame question about ST term updates on model 3. Elon's answer was just right: "If you are worried about volatility, sell the stock." Ben had extra time to think of a substantive question, but that's all he could come up with? Good grief. My one recommendation is that Tesla take more buy-side analyst questions -- e.g. where's Fidelity, T Rowe Price, etc? . It's not clear to me why they are not hearing from those analysts more often during the quarterly calls.

 

[kelevra]

Yes, he has occasionally refused to answer, answered obliquely, or even dissed the reporter for asking a stupid question.

thx do you remember which calls? I vaguely remember maybe Q3 2016 when sentiment was also bad.

Concerns me too - not really in terms of the company's future, but more in that the headlines will probably be negative about his behaviour tomorrow!

i don't care so much about the headlines and would even like to see the SP drop so i can buy more cheaply but of course only as long as i can stay confident. (i guess i still am)
may biggest longterm concern with Tesla is actually that Elon cloud collapse or become crazy at one point because he works so much and there is a fine line between genius and insanity. just look at the original Nikola Tesla for example. Therefore it concerns me when he sounds tired or doesn't want to answer questions. Do you think this concern is far off? Any arguments that can ease me?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

This is where we are? Defending Elons actions by comparing him to Trumps public speaking antics and Tesla to what is effectively a dividend yielding utility. I have faith in Elon, I'm very long TSLA, I liked some of the content on its own merits.. But I am surprised my feelings are so far removed from others here. I suppose I should be hopeful that the world will perceive this call as many of you do.

The world won't end, but this CC didnt feel productive.

John Legere transformed T-Mobile from an almost dead footnote in the wireless industry to a highly disruptive force that has grown steadily for the past 5 years. He basically changed the entire service and pricing model for mobile phone service in the United States.

My point is not to approve or defend Elon’s actions today. I simply believe they don’t matter in the long run.

Many people were appalled by Legere’s foul language and erratic behavior, but he saved T-Mobile. I’m sure Wall Street institutional shareholders weren’t thrilled when he taunted AT&T and got thrown out of an AT&T event after sneaking in, but none of that stopped T-Mobile from delivering the bacon.

 

[jelloslug]

Short perspective on the Q1 letter:

• Not a single mention of the Semi, Roadster, Model Y, or Full Self Driving in the Q1 letter. Are these projects on hold?
• 2018 CapEx forecast lowered, as expected. This, combined with 24/7 production, are both strong evidence of Tesla's cash crunch.
• 2.35B of CapEx left planned in 2018.
• They're down to 1.7B in cash minus customer deposits.
• Working capital now -2.2B.
• Total debt now at 10.5B. Wow.
• Did they remove free cash flow from their condensed statement?

It sure looks like they need to come up with over 4B to cover current liabilities and committed CapEx.

Jesus, did you just cut and paste that from Twitter?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

This is where we are? Defending Elons actions by comparing him to Trumps public speaking antics and Tesla to what is effectively a dividend yielding utility. I have faith in Elon, I'm very long TSLA, I liked some of the content on its own merits.. But I am surprised my feelings are so far removed from others here. I suppose I should be hopeful that the world will perceive this call as many of you do.

The world won't end, but this CC didnt feel productive.

I'm on the same page as you. That was embarrassing. If he didn't want to answer boring questions then it would have been better for just Deepak and JB to have done the CC and Elon could have done a 1 on 1 special interview with Galieo and everyone could have been happy.

Now what would be funny is if he walked into the Q3 CC after a profitable quarter and just said "no questions today." *Mic drop*

 

[anticitizen13.7]

may biggest longterm concern with Tesla is actually that Elon cloud collapse or become crazy at one point because he works so much and there is a fine line between genius and insanity. just look at the original Nikola Tesla for example. Therefore it concerns me when he sounds tired or doesn't want to answer questions. Do you think this concern is far off? Any arguments that can ease me?

This is certainly a risk that must be acknowledged.

Consider though that Elon has faced and gotten through much worse. He nearly lost everything in 2008 from the triple hits of the Financial Crisis causing investment funds to dry up, Tesla Roadster project in shambles, and SpaceX having its 3rd failed launch. And he was getting divorced.

Today, SpaceX is a stable business, and Tesla ships working product. I don’t think the existential threat is so great anymore.

 

[RobStark]

i don't care so much about the headlines and would even like to see the SP drop so i can buy more cheaply but of course only as long as i can stay confident. (i guess i still am)
may biggest longterm concern with Tesla is actually that Elon cloud collapse or become crazy at one point because he works so much and there is a fine line between genius and insanity. just look at the original Nikola Tesla for example.

We can become concerned for Elon's sanity when he starts dating pigeons instead of Hollywood starlets.

 

[kelevra]

listening again: EM said already in the introduction that he would like to go as long as there are GOOD questions to answer.

 

[RobStark]

From the shareholder letter....

"In the end, this is all about having factories that are producing the world’s highest quality cars as quickly and as cost-effectively as possible, and with as close to zero injuries as we can possibly get. Our automation strategy is key to this and we are as committed to it as ever."

 

[JRP3]

may biggest longterm concern with Tesla is actually that Elon cloud collapse or become crazy at one point because he works so much and there is a fine line between genius and insanity. just look at the original Nikola Tesla for example. Therefore it concerns me when he sounds tired or doesn't want to answer questions. Do you think this concern is far off? Any arguments that can ease me?

I'd say you don't understand the genius of Nikola Tesla or Elon Musk. They are not the same, though both are valuable.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

John Legere transformed T-Mobile from an almost dead footnote in the wireless industry to a highly disruptive force that has grown steadily for the past 5 years. He basically changed the entire service and pricing model for mobile phone service in the United States.

My point is not to approve or defend Elon’s actions today. I simply believe they don’t matter in the long run.

Many people were appalled by Legere’s foul language and erratic behavior, but he saved T-Mobile. I’m sure Wall Street institutional shareholders weren’t thrilled when he taunted AT&T and got thrown out of an AT&T event after sneaking in, but none of that stopped T-Mobile from delivering the bacon.

First we had the Un-Carrier - now we have the Un-Automaker.

I'm invested in Tesla because Elon is at the helm and this call doesn't change anything for me.

Mike

 

[Pete_Lee]

I was a buy-side analyst for 16 years. I've been on thousands of earnings calls. The analysts questions were lame and I'm glad Elon moved on when he did. If there is any question about the wisdom of him moving to the youtuber, it was answered when he went back to the sell side and Ben from Baird asked the lame question about ST term updates on model 3. Elon's answer was just right: "If you are worried about volatility, sell the stock." Ben had extra time to think of a substantive question, but that's all he could come up with? Good grief. My one recommendation is that Tesla take more buy-side analyst questions -- e.g. where's Fidelity, T Rowe Price, etc? . It's not clear to me why they are not hearing from those analysts more often during the quarterly calls.

I've always sorta wondered if the buy-side analysts "bye'd" this call because they didn't want their "questions" to signal their overall thoughts about management? In my experience, it's always the quiet people you gotta watch out for...

 

[kelevra]

I'd say you don't understand the genius of Nikola Tesla or Elon Musk. They are not the same, though both are valuable.

Could you explain that a little more? Why is someone like Elon less likely to go crazy than other geniuses in history?