General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Sancho]

Pierre Ferragu, ranked 623 of 7,447 on Tipranks, just initiated Tesla at $530

New Tesla Bull Sees Case for Sixfold Surge to $300 Billion Value

Veteran Tech Analyst Aims to Change the Research Game in Tesla and Others

Wow, this is a game changer. Pierre Ferragu is the real deal. From his bio:

Prior to Bernstein, Pierre was a Principal at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in Parisand London, where he led engagements for the firm's TMT practice. Prior to BCG, Pierre worked in the telecom industry in Sweden. He earned a degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences from Centrale-Supélec and a PhD qualifying degree in Sociology from Sciences Po, Paris.



Pierre Ferragu instantly becomes the best analyst following TSLA. Gene Munster is ok, but shines only in comparison to the complete idiots that comprise the rest of them. Gene doesn’t like to be the biggest bull on a stock; Pierre will give him cover now to be more bullish.

 

[dc_h]

I am not a Cramer fan. But he said it perfectly.

Again with twitter, please go there and thank Cramer. He changed the tone, at least to a degree, for CNBC. And tell CNBC to put Gali on again, or Gene Munster.

 

[neroden]

Regarding Pierre Ferragu, I liked his Barron interview enough that I might consider paying his company for a report, if I had something I wanted them to research. I am notoriously stingy about such things though.

 

[SPadival]

FYI. I had to unsubscribe from a couple of jealous Youtubers after Gali pulled off that coup. Just disgusting how they piled on Elon and Gali.

 

[EVMeister]

Same here. I think I know one of the YouTubers you're talking about. I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling that way and I think the like to dislike ratio and comments on that video speaks volumes.

 

[Reciprocity]

It's simply much harder than Musk thinks it is.

Once he really gets a handle on the scope of the problem, which he hasn't yet, *then* we'll get a realistic timeline.

At least he already understands that it has to be 10 times better than human drivers, possibly 100 times better, before anyone will even consider using it; this is something I knew from the history of fully automated railroads (which have been working since the 1970s and perfected in the 1990s). But most advocates don't realize this piece of psychology.

Frankly trains don't kill millions. Totally different situation. Distracted driving has caused deaths to go up more than drunk driving. This will help ease the regulatory hurdles. The problem is that Tesla is the only company that will be held to account if someone dies in an autonomous car. Everyone else will be allowed a lot more rope.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Elon fighting back. Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[RationalOptimist]

Earlier in the night, he posted this. Elon Musk on Twitter
My main worry: he's not sleeping. But he does seem deadly determined that he will prove shorts wrong.

 

[jhm]

In his Barron's interview, when he discussed why he left Bernstein:

"Last year, trading volumes were down because volatility was low in the market. That meant pressure on revenues at my former employer. It helped me realize there was something wrong with our model. I didn’t want my commercial success to be tied to volatility or trading volumes...."​

This reinforces my view that sell-side analysts are incentivized to "encourage" volatility and trading, leading to for example, Jonas's call of "up to $400 then down to $200". This could also explain why seemingly bad analysts like Tamberrino can get a job at Godman, they would make more for their banks if they give bad guidance, because then the company will likely significantly beat or miss their target, surprise the market, causing more trading and volatility. When I heard Kallo's complaint about volatility in yesterday call, my first reaction was disgust because of the hypocrisy.

Unfortunately there is not much anyone can do. Elon and Tesla did the best that they could this quarter, by creating a growth plan that can be completely self-funded, and disconnecting Tesla's future from Wall Street analysts' influences. As an investor, the only way you can get out from under the analysts is if you buy and hold long term. If you trade, they've got you.

This is really interesting. Journalists have to sell the news, which motivates sensationalism and fixation on short term issues. Meanwhile "analysts" need to sell short term trading which motivates calls that induce volatility and fixate on short term issues.

Both institutions benefit from focussing on short term noise, which runs counter to the interest of most investors to identify and stick with investments for long term wealth appreciation. This is boring buy and hold investing, but the analysts and journalists are going to tempt investors worry, fret and chase alot of other short lived sensations.

 

[Navin]

This is really interesting. Journalists have to sell the news, which motivates sensationalism and fixation on short term issues. Meanwhile "analysts" need to sell short term trading which motivates calls that induce volatility and fixate on short term issues.

Both institutions benefit from focussing on short term noise, which runs counter to the interest of most investors to identify and stick with investments for long term wealth appreciation. This is boring buy and hold investing, but the analysts and journalists are going to tempt investors worry, fret and chase alot of other short lived sensations.

Media makes money from advertising, period.
WS banks make money from fees, period. Fees come from raising capital (if they are lucky) or from investors churning shares - either buying or selling, period. The WS analysts are paid clowns to get people into the circus of collecting fees.. Once you realize that - life becomes easier.

 

[SteveG3]

Elon is discussing Wednesday's call now. Mentions shorts, actual investors, in the background misinformation about Tesla...

Seems like a great opportunity to voice any suggestions we have about Tesla/Elon improving communications and/or responding to misinformation.

Who hasn't been wanting to have better investor communications with Tesla and see a bigger response to misinformation! Dialogue happening right now,

You can tweet now, email IR later,

You can "like" any tweet you agree with so it is more prominent for Elon and/or Tesla to see,

More details recently posted here, including sample tweet to join in conversation...

Investor CONSTRUCTIVE Suggestions and/or Requests of Tesla

 

[Mich]

Elon Musk‏Verifizierter Account @elonmusk 10 Min.Vor 10 Minuten
Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.

Year!

 

[DurandalAI]

So we’ve been keeping track of US VIN registrations with the US Feds, do we have a similar method for those that are being delivered to Canada?

 

[Todd Burch]

So we’ve been keeping track of US VIN registrations with the US Feds, do we have a similar method for those that are being delivered to Canada?

They all go through NHTSA. Worldwide, Tesla vehicles use the NHTSA VIN system.

 

[jhm]

Media makes money from advertising, period.
WS banks make money from fees, period. Fees come from raising capital (if they are lucky) or from investors churning shares - either buying or selling, period. The WS analysts are paid clowns to get people into the circus of collecting fees.. Once you realize that - life becomes easier.

Yes, as they say, if you're not paying for the product, you are the product. In the advertising business model of media, selling the news mean getting the attention of viewers so that it can be sold to the advertisers.. There is also a propaganda model of media that works much the same way but advertisements are not the main financial driver. But still the media consumer is the product.

 

[ggr]

Finally read the transcript (I'm not up to actually listening to the recordings these days). Highly informative call, thanks to Galileo and thanks to Musk answering his questions. I still think Musk doesn't understand how hard autonomous driving actually *is*, and I am disappointed that nobody asked about the internal communications issues in the company (which I still believe is their *real* weak point), but apart from that, great call. I would have cut off the idiots asking about capital needs (when he's already said "no capital raise") as well.

I'm short ... on time at the moment. But last night I made time to actually listen to it. You get more nuance from the voice than a transcript or excerpts. I recommend you take the 75 minutes.

 

[TradingInvest]

I believe the journey to trillion dollar market cap will start soon. The signs are obvious now. All stars have aligned. Don't get shaken out by the shorts. I have no short term position, just keep adding shares.

Wow, this is a game changer. Pierre Ferragu is the real deal. From his bio:

Prior to Bernstein, Pierre was a Principal at the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in Parisand London, where he led engagements for the firm's TMT practice. Prior to BCG, Pierre worked in the telecom industry in Sweden. He earned a degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences from Centrale-Supélec and a PhD qualifying degree in Sociology from Sciences Po, Paris.



Pierre Ferragu instantly becomes the best analyst following TSLA. Gene Munster is ok, but shines only in comparison to the complete idiots that comprise the rest of them. Gene doesn’t like to be the biggest bull on a stock; Pierre will give him cover now to be more bullish.

I agree Pierre Ferragu is making the right call on TSLA. But under estimating Gene Munster is like saying Warren Buffett is just so so on value investment. Gene knows what he is doing. He doesn't want to give overly aggressive one year stock target. He has to balance it with potential risks. One year is not the proper time frame to give a target, in one year any stock can tank no mater how good it is.

Gene Munster has repeatedly said on record, including recently on TV, that Tesla will be the largest gainer in the next 5 years among all the large tech companies. That is extremely bullish. When we talk about tech companies, there are always one of two that run wild and gain several fold in 5 years. But Gene is saying Tesla will beat that. More importantly, look at his reasoning in the past 14 years. He definitely knows what's important.

 

[TradingInvest]

I'm short ... on time at the moment. But last night I made time to actually listen to it. You get more nuance from the voice than a transcript or excerpts. I recommend you take the 75 minutes.

You give me a hear attack, I thought you went short! - at the worst possible time.

 

[elasalle]

Some1 mentioned a few days back, May 2nd was gonna see bumper VIN assignments, seems to be the case
@ 304 already for this week



edit: from Tesla Model 3 Invites

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Taking a break from covering Tesla and its competitors due to personal reasons: Value Portfolio Announcement - ValueAnalyst | Seeking Alpha

TSLA remains to be my largest personal holding. I have never been more confident in Tesla's future.

On a completely unrelated note: ValueAnalyst on Twitter