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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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After years of defending missed deadlines... I finally came to my senses.

Why I trust Elon Musk despite missing expectations – Andrew Thomas – Medium

That article missed the number one reason.

When your timelines are much sooner than your competition, it doesn’t matter if you miss your timeline as long as you beat theirs.

E.g. Model 3 is six months late, but competition to it hasn’t even been announced.

Regarding the comment "All flash, no substance", I can never understand how they can call someone who is a self-made billionaire, who has built 3 transformational companies (Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX), no substance. If that is not substance, I don't know what is. There is no amount of flash to overshadow that amount of substance, imo.

Literally the number one Rocket Scientist on the planet by virtue of reading a few books.
 
That article missed the number one reason.

When your timelines are much sooner than your competition, it doesn’t matter if you miss your timeline as long as you beat theirs.

E.g. Model 3 is six months late, but competition to it hasn’t even been announced..

I have seen plenty of announcements of reasonably range electric cars in the next two years, people just don't know the quality difference yet unless they drove a Model 3. I have, and judging by Bolt and eGolf I am not holding my breath. Also where do they get the batteries needed to address the same market that tesla addresses, which is not just EV enthousiast any more but supposedly 50 million americans by last projects, and that is even before Thanksgiving giving an estimated 50,000 families their iphone moment test drives from family members.
 
Let's not overstate it. His book reading allows him to know for sure who the best rocket scientists are, just like he knows who the best battery, EV and design people are.

Do you have inside knowledge to suport this statement? From everything I heard, Elon actually works on hard issues. He has been SpaceX CTO for a reason. That's not a position he can pretend he knows the stuff. If he doesn't know what he is doing, he would have stepped down from that position years ago.
 
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That article missed the number one reason.

When your timelines are much sooner than your competition, it doesn’t matter if you miss your timeline as long as you beat theirs.

E.g. Model 3 is six months late, but competition to it hasn’t even been announced.

Other companies are still debating strategy. VW just got rid off their CEO because he doesn't have a viable plan to move forward. The new CEO will start from square one.
 
Do you have inside knowledge to suport this statement? From everything I heard, Elon actually works on hard issues. He has been SpaceX CTO for a reason. That's not a position he can pretend he knows the stuff. If he doesn't know what he is doing, he would have stepped down from that position years ago.
Now you're overstating what I said. I didn't say he wasn't great. I said he wasn't the best. Clearly he's the best engineering entrepreneur we've seen since the likes of Ford and Edison (even though Nikola Tesla was a better scientist and engineer), and perhaps the best ever.
 
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Nah, it has a small lag, so it's probably a function of their algorithm catching up with the weeklong shutdown that occured a little while ago. That tracker said that 2000+ were being made that week when it was 0 in actuality.
It's possible that when Bloomberg Tracker finally catches up, the May shutdown will start, and throw the tracker into disarray again. It might be unreliable for quite a while, likely into June.
 
Do you have inside knowledge to suport this statement? From everything I heard, Elon actually works on hard issues. He has been SpaceX CTO for a reason. That's not a position he can pretend he knows the stuff. If he doesn't know what he is doing, he would have stepped down from that position years ago.
Elon works the issues and genuinely understands them. But he also tries to hire the best specialist of each relevant field, so that he can be a generalist and not a specialist. He can't be everywhere at once, no matter how hard he tries.

He does have to know enough about the subject (via "book reading") to figure out who those people are that he should hire, so that he knows the right questions to ask to even begin narrowing down candidates. This doesn't necessarily mean the right question to ask the candidates either, but can mean the right question to ask himself/others to find out where to even look for the candidates. For example, with SpaceX, knowing to look for candidates who were building and flying their own "amateur" rockets already, like Tom Mueller. Tom had a day job at TWR but nobody there cared about his ideas for new and better things, so he was literally building rocket engines in his garage when Elon found him and offered him his dream job.

Elon is super talented in multiple ways, but he knows he needs specialists too, and tries to obtain the best. This only further proves how smart he is - many a "genius" would think they alone can do something. Elon has a vision(s) and leads the way towards it, but he knows he can't do it alone. He also knows he won't be here forever, and really tries to find people who will carry on without him. If he dies, I think SpaceX will do okay - Gwynne Shotwell is a true believer in the purpose of SpaceX as are many others, and it will be in good hands. Tesla has it's true believers but Elon still hasn't found a Shotwell for Tesla. It is not enough to have true believers in the cause heading your departments, you also need someone to lead them. The right combination of skills and belief in the mission is unfortunately not that easy to come by.
 
Do you have inside knowledge to suport this statement? From everything I heard, Elon actually works on hard issues. He has been SpaceX CTO for a reason. That's not a position he can pretend he knows the stuff. If he doesn't know what he is doing, he would have stepped down from that position years ago.

Elon has stated that in the early days of SpaceX, they couldn’t hire any really good lead engineers. No one wanted to jump ship to a raw startup that was bound to fail. So Elon WAS the lead engineer, probably up until or even after they got the Falcon 9 flying. No disrespect to the other early SpaceX engineers, they were just young, not experienced. Since then, SpaceX has scooped up lots of experienced talent from industry, so I imagine (but don’t know) that he doesn’t need to get his hands so dirty anymore. These days, Elon is always careful to spread kudos to the entire team when he talks about SpaceX accomplishments.
 
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That article missed the number one reason.

When your timelines are much sooner than your competition, it doesn’t matter if you miss your timeline as long as you beat theirs.

E.g. Model 3 is six months late, but competition to it hasn’t even been announced.



Literally the number one Rocket Scientist on the planet by virtue of reading a few books.

I agree completely and I basically took technical credibility and trust for granted. This post is more about credibility and trust from a financial perspective.
 
You don't only need the app, you also need the password to the Tesla account that the car is linked to as well as a compatible smart phone. And not everyone loaning their car to a reviewer would be willing to share the password to their account.

This was a loaned car? Can’t change the password?

So, we trust lending our car out for a week’s time (or however long they had it) so that multiple people could drive it and review it, but we’re concerned about the password to our Tesla account because .... they’ll all order their own 3 on your credit card?
 
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In the case of the Model 3 or professional reviewers, I don't know for sure, but if you borrow an S or X overnight, they don't give you the necessary password to use the app on it.

That isn’t the context. The context was an extended use of the car by multiple people. And then the complaint of having a keycard. The reality is that a family sharing the 3 WILL use the APP as primary entrance and driving and the keycard as backup should there be a phone or APP issue. So the complaint by the reviewers is at best ignorant.
 
I have seen plenty of announcements of reasonably range electric cars in the next two years, people just don't know the quality difference yet unless they drove a Model 3. I have, and judging by Bolt and eGolf I am not holding my breath. Also where do they get the batteries needed to address the same market that tesla addresses, which is not just EV enthousiast any more but supposedly 50 million americans by last projects, and that is even before Thanksgiving giving an estimated 50,000 families their iphone moment test drives from family members.

People comparing other EVs to Model 3, (including other manufacturers) are making that mistake of looking at EVs as a (niche) market. There is no EV market. There is a premium sports/luxury sedan market. This is where model three competes.
 
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