General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[McMuggets]

Over 1.4M BMWs recalled because your beautiful house could spontaneously burn down. Completely parked and turned off BMW bursts into flames and burns down home. But hey, there was a Tesla fire after a high speed crash so let’s put that on the front page.

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/04/parked-bmw-catches-fire-sets-house-ablaze-north-carolina/

 

[mongo]

Over 1.4M BMWs recalled because your beautiful house could spontaneously burn down. Completely parked and turned off BMW bursts into flames and burns down home. But hey, there was a Tesla fire after a high speed crash so let’s put that on the front page.

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/04/parked-bmw-catches-fire-sets-house-ablaze-north-carolina/

Fords did that years ago. 14 million recalled https://jalopnik.com/5381540/cruise-control-fire-recall-expanded-to-fords-largest-ever
GM only had a 1.5 million recall GM Will Deactivate Heated Washer Fluid Systems

Only having fires on impact is apparently so rare, it's news worthy.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Your 15%, 50%, and 20% numbers were pulled from thin air and […]

Correct, for the sake of illustrating my point and, more importantly, to make my posting more readable. I thought that, within its context, it was pretty obvious that those were just fictional / illustrative numbers, hence why I didn't put "eg." in front of them. But that turned out to be a false assumption – thanks for letting me know.

Next time, I'll use abstract symbols or variables instead.

 

[pz1975]

Over 1.4M BMWs recalled because your beautiful house could spontaneously burn down. Completely parked and turned off BMW bursts into flames and burns down home. But hey, there was a Tesla fire after a high speed crash so let’s put that on the front page.

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/04/parked-bmw-catches-fire-sets-house-ablaze-north-carolina/

If a Tesla did this, it would be front page of every news outlet for days - a massive media feeding frenzy.

 

[ChrisA]

Fords did that years ago. 14 million recalled https://jalopnik.com/5381540/cruise-control-fire-recall-expanded-to-fords-largest-ever
GM only had a 1.5 million recall GM Will Deactivate Heated Washer Fluid Systems

Only having fires on impact is apparently so rare, it's news worthy.

There's been a number of posts recently on this forum and elsewhere drawing parallels between the current period and 2013. One other recent parallel struck me. The coverage of Tesla in early 2013 also seemed to be heavily biased against the company with misguided concerns (fire risk, battery performance in the cold, etc). It's as if the closer Tesla moves to making a big step forward (Model S production in 2013; Model 3 production in 2018), the more warped media/analyst coverage becomes.

On another note, I recently went through JP Morgan/Ryan Brinkman's estimates on Tesla from his May 3rd update. First, credit where credit is due: Ryan was very skeptical on the pace of the Model 3 roll out and obviously that skepticism proved to be well founded. Nonetheless, I'm still amazed at how low his revenue estimates are for 2019 with a total top line number of $21 billion. That number implies about 3k model 3s per week for all of 2019. But we may already be there with 7 months left in 2018. I think he's going to need to make some big upward revisions at some point in 2018.

 

[Reciprocity]

If a Tesla did this, it would be front page of every news outlet for days - a massive media feeding frenzy.

There would be satalite trucks for miles out side the house for weeks. One would think a child was trapped in a well. Nope, just a Tesla, maybe, related fire. No one really knows.

 

[Navin]

There's been a number of posts recently on this forum and elsewhere drawing parallels between the current period and 2013. One other recent parallel struck me. The coverage of Tesla in early 2013 also seemed to be heavily biased against the company with misguided concerns (fire risk, battery performance in the cold, etc). It's as if the closer Tesla moves to making a big step forward (Model S production in 2013; Model 3 production in 2018), the more warped media/analyst coverage becomes.

On another note, I recently went through JP Morgan/Ryan Brinkman's estimates on Tesla from his May 3rd update. First, credit where credit is due: Ryan was very skeptical on the pace of the Model 3 roll out and obviously that skepticism proved to be well founded. Nonetheless, I'm still amazed at how low his revenue estimates are for 2019 with a total top line number of $21 billion. That number implies about 3k model 3s per week for all of 2019. But we may already be there with 7 months left in 2018. I think he's going to need to make some big upward revisions at some point in 2018.

This is accurate. Lots of noise right now. If you are a short or a competitor - what else are you going to do but bang pots and pans and create fear, uncertainty and doubt in the minds of retail investors. It’s all a game and the trick is the stay strong and not let them shake your confidence.

Here is what’s really going on. Ask yourself whether we are improving week over week or not?
Disqus Profile - carsonight

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Over 1.4M BMWs recalled because your beautiful house could spontaneously burn down. Completely parked and turned off BMW bursts into flames and burns down home. But hey, there was a Tesla fire after a high speed crash so let’s put that on the front page.

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/04/parked-bmw-catches-fire-sets-house-ablaze-north-carolina/

From that article:

"This isn’t the first time a BMW has been discovered to spontaneously combust. In fact, an ABC investigation last year found more than 40 cases of BMWs catching fire in the U.S. in the last five years."

But, yeah. A Tesla catching fire after a high speed collision is what makes headlines... <smh>

 

[Thumper]

Tesla website now lets me choose 4WD, color, wheels etc. but after entering my very valid credit card data, it says "
There was an error processing your order. Please try again This is very frustrating! Any suggestions?

 

[AZRI11]

Over 1.4M BMWs recalled because your beautiful house could spontaneously burn down. Completely parked and turned off BMW bursts into flames and burns down home. But hey, there was a Tesla fire after a high speed crash so let’s put that on the front page.

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/04/parked-bmw-catches-fire-sets-house-ablaze-north-carolina/

BMW has ads Tesla doesn't.

 

[AZRI11]

From that article:

"This isn’t the first time a BMW has been discovered to spontaneously combust. In fact, an ABC investigation last year found more than 40 cases of BMWs catching fire in the U.S. in the last five years."

But, yeah. A Tesla catching fire after a high speed collision is what makes headlines... <smh>

As long as journalism is for profit you will never have fair and accurate coverage. This will change with a major disruptive not for profit model. Until then expect the worse.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Correct, for the sake of illustrating my point and, more importantly, to make my posting more readable. I thought that, within its context, it was pretty obvious that those were just fictional / illustrative numbers, hence why I didn't put "eg." in front of them. But that turned out to be a false assumption – thanks for letting me know.

Next time, I'll use abstract symbols or variables instead.

There was context behind those numbers that your snark does not brush away. For instance, had they been 1%, 3%, and 2%, you wouldn't have been able to draw the conclusions that you did. Try it. Would your concern about being able to roll in optimizations into a 24/7 operation be less valid using those fictitious numbers? Indeed they would, as the need for it becomes unnecessary, regardless of whether or not they can do it.

 

[bdy0627]

Tesla website now lets me choose 4WD, color, wheels etc. but after entering my very valid credit card data, it says "
There was an error processing your order. Please try again This is very frustrating! Any suggestions?

No, I think you just need to let the dust settle for a few days here. Maybe not much gets done on Sunday, but I don't really know.

 

[sundaymorning]

Over 1.4M BMWs recalled because your beautiful house could spontaneously burn down. Completely parked and turned off BMW bursts into flames and burns down home. But hey, there was a Tesla fire after a high speed crash so let’s put that on the front page.

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/04/parked-bmw-catches-fire-sets-house-ablaze-north-carolina/

News like this is so typical of gasoline vehicles that it won’t even attract a 100 clicks. The wants Tesla news 24/7.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

There was context behind those numbers that your snark does not brush away. For instance, had they been 1%, 3%, and 2%, you wouldn't have been able to draw the conclusions that you did. Try it. Would your concern about being able to roll in optimizations into a 24/7 operation be less valid using those fictitious numbers? Indeed they would, as the need for it becomes unnecessary, regardless of whether or not they can do it.

Last post on this topic:

I don't think it's fair to pluck apart my reasoning based on sheer semantics: First, you criticise me for using illustrative but concrete numbers, now you make up some extreme assumption in order to "spin" my concerns into nonsense territory – that's a cheap rhetoric trick invented by populists centuries ago. And you know that.

Obviously, I assume this numbers to be significant, based on my very own expertise and experiences of product development cycles.

Disagree with it all you want, but please do it in a sincere way and not with some cheap trickery.

Thank you. I'm out.

 

[defc0n]

Another bear hope/speculation just got flushed down the toilet.

U.S., China putting trade war on hold, Treasury's Mnuchin says

More ammo for my theory we would see 3000 S&P 500 by year end. Although I should probably dial that back to 2900 at this point unfortunately.

 

[sundaymorning]

Mercedes issues recall, but doesn’t honor it by stating parts aren’t available. Tesla issues the same airbag recall, and I got mine swapped out within 2 weeks.

Mercedes-Benz Accused in Lawsuit of 'Fake Recalls'

 

[SteveG3]

More Elon tweeting news,

"Exactly! Will probably unveil next gen Supercharger late summer. Major improvements all round."

Elon Musk on Twitter

and a response to various attempts to spin Performance Model 3 info released last night as a loss of credibility about the Model 3 being a mass market car, (softly implies SR vehicle might be out sooner than early 2019)

"With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live."

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Last post on this topic:

I don't think it's fair to pluck apart my reasoning based on sheer semantics: First, you criticise me for using illustrative but concrete numbers, now you make up some extreme assumption in order to "spin" my concerns into nonsense territory – that's a cheap rhetoric trick invented by populists centuries ago. And you know that.

Obviously, I assume this numbers to be significant, based on my very own expertise and experiences of product development cycles.

Disagree with it all you want, but please do it in a sincere way and not with some cheap trickery.

Thank you. I'm out.

It's not semantics, nor sophistry. it's just the failure scenario of modus ponens logic which states:
if A is true, then B must follow
A is true, therefore A is true.

But in your case, A isn't true.

You claim that "true profitability – not being 15%, but 50% cheaper than your competitors – often kicks in with later revisions, when they know what fat to trim and what parameters to adjust." and also, "Let's say, they find some fat to trim and combined with their own expertise, they somehow manage to come up with a pack that's 20%"

... and then you proceed to reason out your "concerns" from that premise. The core problem isn't the shaky logical reasoning that you took to reach your conclusion of concern. The problem is that your core premise isn't substantiated. You claim that it was "illustrative" and that its exact value didn't matter, but I was pointing out that the exact value changes its context and that being pulled out of thin air makes the whole argument meaningless.

So you've brought your considerable product development expertise as support that because Tesla didn't do things a certain way, then they can't be profitable building their battery pack or staying ahead of the competition. Other than your expertise, why must Tesla develop their battery pack according to your iterative cycle? There are $70million rocket launches on the market now, even though the "experts" claimed it wasn't possible. Sandy Munro has torn apart the model 3 battery pack and has video of it. What possible fat is there to trim for the "next iteration"?

You haven't made the case that premise "A" is true, so you can't conclude "B".

 

[schonelucht]

Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live."

Elon Musk on Twitter

Confirmed : Standard Range battery is officially cancelled. (/jk)