How do you see the 10-year view play out?
Not that I haven’t been wrong before, mind you, but there’s a sense of inevitability at this point.
Starting Q1 2019, I think it all becomes rather boring and predictable.
Namely, record revenues quarter after quarter,
margins get very healthy and stay that way,
Refreshed S and new roadster make mission e look like an also ran, an exemplar of what’s to follow across the major players.
Semi, model y, and roadster start to create a steamroller effect (coupled with continued S,X, and 3 growth)
Market share just keeps growing
Upheavals among major manufacturers start to begin in earnest,
As even subpar evs from traditional players start to cannibalize mindshare and eventually sales
Meanwhile Tesla energy also starts to contribute in major way.
Not that these themes are original with me
But from here on out it will just look like a car wreck in slow motion for much of the industry,
in the sense that they can all see it coming but there's nothing anyone can do about it.
While Tesla moves from strength to strength.
Autopilot and transition to level 4/5 may provide the only real drama.
Let’s see how these predictions play out, shall we?