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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Ontario Election Results From CBC News

Conservatives win majority government in Ontario.

Well, kiss the $14k BEV rebate goodbye.

Liberals could lose official party status if they don't pick up at least one more seat.


PC
75
2,257,900 votes

NDP
39
1,877,258 votes

LIB
7
1,091,942 votes

GRN
1
257,553 votes

Conservatives got 40% of the votes granting them 61% of the seats to form majority government.
NDP had 36% votes, Liberals got 20% of the votes but only 6% of chairs.
Very nicely demonstrates how broken the election system is!
 
Conservatives got 40% of the votes granting them 61% of the seats to form majority government.
NDP had 36% votes, Liberals got 20% of the votes but only 6% of chairs.
Very nicely demonstrates how broken the election system is!

The NDP and Liberal leadership need to get over themselves and form a coalition. It would be like the Clinton and Sanders wing of the Democratic Party refused to work together, got 56% of the vote but gave the Republicans all three branches of government with a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

This is a massive push to force large centrist coalitions. That is how democracy is supposed to work. That is what the system encourages.

The Right was divided in 2 or 3 not that long ago with no hope of entering government.

It forced them to compromise.
 
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Pack Prices On Elon Time.png
I took the liberty of adding to this BNEF chart on battery pack pricing:

Twitter link Christopher Arndt on Twitter
 

One problem here that the article doesn't mention is that it takes more energy to reverse any chemical reaction than was released by the forward reaction. In other words, burning some hydrocarbon fuel releases energy plus CO2 and water. Reversing that reaction to recreate the fuel requires more energy than you got from the combustion in the first place. Plus in their reaction they're starting with CO2 and hydrogen. Where did the hydrogen come from? Electrolysis of water? Another energy loss there. Getting hydrogen from natural gas is cheaper but now you're using a fossil fuel. No such thing as a free lunch.
 
One Day, Your Car May Run on Fumes—From Power Plants

" Carbon Engineering's system makes fuel for $4 a gallon "

" A plant that can produce 2,000 barrels of fuel a day would cost about $300 million and take about 3 years to build."

“We have signed agreements with a U.S. company that has very cheap wind power,” Keith said. “They like the investment proposition of taking that now very-low-value wind power, and doing a high capital cost investment in us to make this fuel that’s a very high-value fuel. In some ways you can call it energy arbitrage.”
 
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It isn’t clear to me that the BEV rebate will be on the chopping block. Is that an official position? I know cap and trade will die.

Not the official position but it is widely assumed to be so.

Ford, with a few exceptions, is not very specific.

When he pulls Ontario out of Cap and Trade it will cost Ontario ~C$4B in Federal funds.

He said he will find "4% of efficiencies" in the Provincial budget to makeup the shortfall.

Most observers think the BEV incentive is an easy target.

Saying he would kill it before the election would not add votes, the voters who want it gone are already with him. And saying he would kill it might cost him votes from voters that had previously voted Liberal but were considering switching.
 
At the shareholders meeting, in response to a question about automatic emergency braking, Elon said they are rolling out improvements soon, but they’re trying to walk that fine line of being a nuisance to often to be useful, vs. safety.

I understand it is a difficult engineering problem. False positives are really big nuisance. Wouldn't surprise me if parts of the enhanced autopilot functions like smart summon are not yet delivered due to a missing differentiator between absolute static objects and moving ones. For simple autopilot and parking jobs, ultrasonics can do the trick. For smart summon that can navigate for example a parking lot, those are likely not enough. And the implications of this missing functionality on FSD should be abundantly clear to everyone.
 
Tesla could add 4 miniature rockets to hop into the air for a few seconds when the car detects an imminent heads-on collision. Or use the propulsion (push backward) to bring the car to instant stop in emergency.

It seems Tesla will actually do the rocket thing. From physics point of view, it should work. Elon posted this regarding the new Roadster on Twitter: "Like a flying metal suit, but in car form …"

I think this is the SpaceX option he was talking about.
 
One problem here that the article doesn't mention is that it takes more energy to reverse any chemical reaction than was released by the forward reaction. In other words, burning some hydrocarbon fuel releases energy plus CO2 and water. Reversing that reaction to recreate the fuel requires more energy than you got from the combustion in the first place. Plus in their reaction they're starting with CO2 and hydrogen. Where did the hydrogen come from? Electrolysis of water? Another energy loss there. Getting hydrogen from natural gas is cheaper but now you're using a fossil fuel. No such thing as a free lunch.

Yah, but for weight limited (planes) or power/run time dominated things (heavy earth movers, farm tractors) the end energy density can be more important than the invested energy/ efficiency (costs being reasonable, of course).
 
Conservatives got 40% of the votes granting them 61% of the seats to form majority government.
NDP had 36% votes, Liberals got 20% of the votes but only 6% of chairs.
Very nicely demonstrates how broken the election system is!
Shows how compromise is needed for countries and parties. You have three left of center parties running alone and all losing, with combined 60% of the vote.
 
Nice pics of Model 3 production line Businessweek - Bloomberg

Those are really good photos. Hats off to the photographer.

I took a factory tour yesterday and was struck by the density of the Model 3 line. I know they've communicated this fact before but seeing it in person, both the sheer number of robots, and how dense they were packed was impressive. Some of those photos give a decent sense of the density, but not the scale. Seemed like the whole line was like that, not just individual stations.
 
Model 3 tear down in Germany:

I got hold of the printed version from Wirtschaftswoche and found some interesting additional information it:

Engineer-team Markus Wiederstein & Polaris Partner
  • De assembled into 500 units
  • 4 OEM did purchase a Model 3 each in the last week. They mention following cities which are the HQ of Daimler, VW, Audi, BMW
  • They phrase it like, they got hold of a few engineers who teared down a Model 3 in assignment of a German competition
  • The electric drive train beats all from Elon promised specifications
  • Quote:" The power unit is well thought through, compact, well integrated in the chassi, und light. It won't be easy for competitor to build a equal drive train."
  • The Body represents only 10% of material costs
  • Impressed about building units that are designed in a way that robots can hold them well at final assembly
  • 100 battery module in sequence or parallel connected each out of 40-46 cells
  • Battery with 75 kWh , 4416 Cells,
Cost Break Down:

upload_2018-6-8_21-11-14.jpeg
 
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