General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

At the end of Q4 17 they announced a burst rate of 1000

They didn't actually say that as I remember. I believe it was more like "individual processes achieved a rate which would equate to a burst rate of 1000/wk if actually done for a whole week."

 

[ZsoZso]

Curiosity killed the cat...

but not the bird !

 

[ZsoZso]

Every quarters average production rate is lower than the burst rate announced at the end of the previous quarter. This clearly shows that the burst rate is not immediately maintained right after it's announcement but takes several weeks to become sustainable. I've just written a new article showing more evidence that this lag is real and predictable using VIN registrations as a predictor.

Indications That Tesla's Burst Rate Is Not A Fluke - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Looks like we have some severely mathematically challenged new trolls around.
Others have already quoted the numbers for all 3 previous quarters the average was clearly above the exit rate of the previous quarter each time!

What's next ? Are you going to argue that 2+2=22 ?

 

[Drumheller]

NO comments on this elon tweet ?
Elon Musk: "Feels like a show & tell weekend. I wonder what the cat dragged in …"


Are we not speculators ?
Have we no curiosity ?

Enquiring minds want to know !

My guess is that it will be reviews of the Model 3 Performance version. They were shipped out to stores at the end of the week and probably arriving over the weekend.

 

[bdy0627]

Interesting Bolt/Model 3 comparison from the perspective of an owner:
How do the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 compare? - Plug In America

 

[kbM3]

View attachment 316794
I’ll be grateful if it causes a burn of some sort.

Wonder if this is about a lawsuit against the short-sellers?

 

[AlMc]

Lack of speculation caused by anticipation fatigue.

I apologize for the being the 'steak:sizzle guy........My new equally irritating gauge is the Weary vs FOMO index. Currently I am slightly Weary>FOMO.

 

[RobStark]

Global June '18 Top 5 - Half game bet


1. Nissan Leaf - 42k
2. BAIC EC-Series - 40k
3. Tesla Model 3 - 27k
4. Toyota Prius PHEV - 25k
5. BYD Qin PHEV - 23k

 

[RobStark]

 

[RiverCard]

Gali is unfortunately misinformed and is spewing nonsense. See my reply to him below. Feel free to like / RT.

Generalenthu on Twitter

View attachment 316507

Boring, boneheaded. Let's NOT go to the youtube guy on the next conference call.

 

[SebastianR]

Did you see this?

EM on Twitter, replying to @johndstoll @WSJ @mtbarra
I’m honored to work with an amazing group of people at Tesla, but always happy to talk to an ace who might want to join
Elon Musk on Twitter

It is in reply to a guy over at WSJ that would like a "Gwynne Shotwell" over at Tesla and suggest Marry Barra of GM...

 

[pz1975]

I apologize for the being the 'steak:sizzle guy........My new equally irritating gauge is the Weary vs FOMO index. Currently I am slightly Weary>FOMO.

I agree with this. Whenever I get weary/bored/frustrated about Tesla/TSLA after a stock price decline, that is usually near a bottom. I find when I buy at that point even though it annoys me to do so, I usually do well.

On the other hand whenever I feel strong FOMO (like after Elon’s short burn tweets) and I buy, I almost always do bad on those purchases.

Right now I am definitely in a bored/weary state with room to go further in that direction.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Lack of speculation caused by anticipation fatigue.

After short burn of the century turned out to be a wet fart I think there is probably nothing left to anticipate.

 

[Intl Professor]

After short burn of the century turned out to be a wet fart I think there is probably nothing left to anticipate.

A change of pants?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

After short burn of the century turned out to be a wet fart I think there is probably nothing left to anticipate.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that.

The mainstream media has relentlessly attacked Tesla for weeks. My sense from reading posts in many different forums, is that there is still considerable skepticism in the broader investment community that Tesla can sustain production of 5k Model 3s/week. There’s even more skepticism that Tesla’s financial situation will improve. The majority of people simply do not believe due to risk aversion.

If Tesla can demonstrate sustained production and financial results, I believe there will be a slow steamroll upwards as YOLO/FOMO takes hold.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

3Q18 Free Cash Flow

I'm interested in your thoughts on this topic, which seems to be a top concern for many investors.

 

[Ugliest1]

After short burn of the century turned out to be a wet fart I think there is probably nothing left to anticipate.

I definitely don't want your description to turn into anything of substance!

 

[Reciprocity]

There have been excellent posts on TMC laying out the many components of Tesla's 'moat' i.e. why they cannot be caught or passed by competitors with more resources but late to the party. It is the sum of the parts that determines how large the moat is and how long it will keep Tesla the worlds most advanced and effective EV manufacturer. Unlike a Wall, the individual components of Tesla's mote are not static but changing dynamically over time. Some gain while others diminish as what portion of the total moat they represent and the size and consequence of the total moat will increase or decrease as they do. Tesla has built its moat due to foresight, pace of innovation, willingness to take risks if payoff seems large. Even a cyborg dragon will not overcome a large moat unless it exceeds the leaders pace of innovation long enough to catch up and then overtake the leader.

It is certainly true that the single biggest component of Tesla's total moat is deciding to invest in the biggest and best battery manufacturing factory in the world with all that involves in advanced automation and innovations improving efficiency. It is not the total moat.
Elon, J.B., Jeff Dahl, etc. would not agree that cell performance doesn't matter. It's why they support Dahl's group. It's why they watch new developments like a hawk so they will not lose this qualitative portion of the moat. Improvements in cell performance are why a LR Model 3 has 320+ mile range, with good performance, and very low pack degradation over time and cycles. It's why Tesla can develop and deliver electric Semi trucks with up to 500 miles of range with fast recharge and long lifetimes when others cannot.

Last, JB, Dahl, etc. would not support your assertion that improvements in high performance cells can be as easily duplicated just by slicing up a few samples for analysis. If this was the case Samsung, LG and BYD etc. would be closer to parity with Tesla batteries than they are. I've spoken with cathode nanotech company staff and one point they emphasized is that cell chemistry changes effect every aspect of the cell performance characteristics and those matter to the end users of batteries.

I can 100% guarantee those companies have cells that are as efficient. What they don't have is the ability to make a billion of them. Yet. Tesla's moat in cells is the machine that makes the machine. Don't believe me, take Elon's word for it. No one else is committed and none has done what it takes to even start to catch up. But eventually they will be forced to and will make headway. Tesla can and will stay ahead for sometime and build a world wide following that will be of value for many decades. This is why we are invested, not because of some battery cell advancement that lasts a few years until it's outdated.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

In the case of battery cells and "the machine that builds the (part that goes into the machine, the cells)", that's probably more Panasonic moat than Tesla moat. Though packaging cells into modules and packs (more machine that builds the machine) is once again Tesla.

 

[waterloo42]

I can 100% guarantee those companies have cells that are as efficient. What they don't have is the ability to make a billion of them. Yet. Tesla's moat in cells is the machine that makes the machine. Don't believe me, take Elon's word for it. No one else is committed and none has done what it takes to even start to catch up. But eventually they will be forced to and will make headway. Tesla can and will stay ahead for sometime and build a world wide following that will be of value for many decades. This is why we are invested, not because of some battery cell advancement that lasts a few years until it's outdated.

I'd guess though not quite as high energy density nor as low in cobalt. The German company that did a teardown on the model 3 cell saw 2.8% cobalt whereas everyone else is still aiming to do high production at 10% (8-1-1 cells). So, I think there's some extra moat than the GF.