General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

"If you don't like volatility don't buy our stock" If you want boring Tesla isn't the right company for you, and The Boring Co. isn't public.

 

[Reciprocity]

You haven't posted anything yet to support your assertions, either that other companies have cells that are as capable as Tesla's M3 batteries or that battery chemistry (i.e. total performance profile) matters little to Tesla's total moat against losing it's lead in the next five or more years. So your being 100% sure of an unsupported statement means nothing.
You don't get that Tesla's moat is not one single advantage but the sum of many advantages. I don't think any of the moat advantages are bigger than Tesla already having a GF built, operating and set to expand cell production several times over the next several years.

But that in no way means that other advantages - especially their cells having better performance than those available to other EV manufacturers - are unimportant. Elon and J.B. don't monitor new battery developments as closely as they do, nor fund partners like Jeff Dahl, because cell performance isn't important! Cathode and anode refinements improving per cell energy density are the drivers of continued cost per KWh reductions Tesla is confident enough about to promise range and power for the Semi at an attractive cost.
Building more GFs is critical so fast ramping EV and Storage products are possible. Not that each new GF is going to produce cells for 20, 30 or 40% less cost than GF1 (already optimized due to scale and automation improvements). There will be further production cost reductions moving forward, but they are necessarily slower and more modest than what Elon and JB know is possible with improving batteries 7 - 10% annually.

For example, Samsung already has 2170 cell. But no massive factory dedicated to producing them by the billions. In part because they have no demand. Tesla is it's own demand, but it was a chicken and egg problem. No factory, no 3. No 3, the factory is pointless. The factory is the moat. The machine that builds the machines is the IP Tesla can protect and cannot be easily copied.

Tesla has many moats, but some are more easily breached compared to the factory.

 

[Mader Levap]

Tesla uses cylinders because the most commonly purchased battery is the AA.

That is one of silliest things I've read here lately. Thanks for laugh!

 

[ggr]

Mod: posts about the British/Thai diver and Elon's twitter account, etc, moved to:
Elon Tweeting about Thailand and Reputation
Once monday starts, any followup in any of the pinned threads will be summarily deleted. Until then, I might move them.
--ggr.

 

[dmckinstry]

The Porsche Taycan may be able to charge at 350 kW. But if so, the pack will be significantly heavier and costlier than if it had been limited to 100-150 kW.

Or have significantly shorter lifetime. Do they have someone like Jeff Dahn to do their testing and predicting?

 

[electracity]

No.
It is because grain silos are cylinders.
Same reason Falcon 9 is a cylinder.
AA batteries were originally called Agricultural Activators due to allowing farmers to work at night without risk of fire from lanterns.
AAA were Agricultural Activators Attenuated due to smaller size.


(Or it's due to the optimized surface area to volume ratio along with inherent structurally strength, who can say...)

Cylinders have the best energy density per cell, but not the best Volumetric efficiency per pack. But my point wasn't pro or con cylinders, our any one battery type. There will always be a couple cell types available to build an EV pack that are arguably the best. Even Panasonic is setting up tp manufacture prismatic EV cells.

 

[RobStark]

Even Panasonic is setting up tp manufacture prismatic EV cells.

Because other automakers demand prismatic cells not because Panasonic thinks these cells are as good or better than 2170.

Just about every automaker save Tesla and Rimac have a bias toward less parts.

Historically, in the automotive industry reducing the part count is synonymous with reducing cost.

One big pouch has as many parts inside as cylindrical cells per kWh but automotive mechanical engineers see less complexity and more room to drive down cost in one bigger part (the pouch).

 

[22522]

There are tab conductivity issues with pop tarts.

 

[gene]

I drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.

 

[MartinAustin]

In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.

If it is the first week or two of a new quarter, then you may see a surge in new Tesla's that don't have their final plates. Tesla makes a huge deliveries push prior to the end of each quarter... particularly in California.

 

[shrspeedblade]

I drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.

I've been on the lookout for Model 3s in the Bay Area for the past year now, so I've gotten fairly good at spotting them and it has been a common occurrence now to the point it is rare on a longer drive that I don't see at least one. Today I was driving a different vehicle, and still noticed several Model 3s when the thought occurred to me: "Just look in your driveway doofus!"

 

[Sparky]

.. particularly in California.

Two things:
1) There's now a boatload of Model 3's cruising CA.
2) Brain chemistry is weird.
Years ago, when I did my self-install of rooftop PV, I used to stand out back with a margarita in the sunshine, staring at the meter running backwards. Only the dog joined me for this frequent ritual. I think the backwards spinning meter was a dopamine hit (for me, not dog). Later, when I happened by someone's house and saw fresh rooftop PV, I'd crave a margarita.
Now, I guess "transference" has occurred. Driving up I-5, I see quite a few Teslas, but this most recent trip driving up from SoCal, Model 3's were very frequently in the oncoming lanes... sweet dopamine. This afternoon, walking along a narrow Santa Cruz, CA street in the apropos-of-nothing neighborhood named, Pleasure Point, I see yet another Model 3 with a young surfer couple suiting up and waxing down boards on the lee-side. Turn to spouse "thinking about a margarita, you?"
Dog woofs.

 

[generalenthu]

There was supposed to be a show and tell, this weekend. Anyone knows what's up with it?

 

[M. Thompson]

Two things:
1) There's now a boatload of Model 3's cruising CA.
2) Brain chemistry is weird.
Years ago, when I did my self-install of rooftop PV, I used to stand out back with a margarita in the sunshine, staring at the meter running backwards. Only the dog joined me for this frequent ritual. I think the backwards spinning meter was a dopamine hit (for me, not dog). Later, when I happened by someone's house and saw fresh rooftop PV, I'd crave a margarita.
Now, I guess "transference" has occurred. Driving up I-5, I see quite a few Teslas, but this most recent trip driving up from SoCal, Model 3's were very frequently in the oncoming lanes... sweet dopamine. This afternoon, walking along a narrow Santa Cruz, CA street in the apropos-of-nothing neighborhood named, Pleasure Point, I see yet another Model 3 with a young surfer couple suiting up and waxing down boards on the lee-side. Turn to spouse "thinking about a margarita, you?"
Dog woofs.

 

[SPadival]

There was supposed to be a show and tell, this weekend. Anyone knows what's up with it?

In due (Elon) time.

 

[Teslie]

Is counting Teslas on the road a better statistical source than the announced delivery figures of Tesla ?

 

[Foghat]

I drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.

I’ve also seen a significant increase of model 3s in LA since June. Personally family members have received their M3 in the Midwest and now the Pacific Northwest over the past month and half. As well as a friend locally received their model x.

The biggest note I can take away (besides the real production increase) are the reports from Midwest and Pacific Northwest family saying they love the car and their friends (and randoms) having expressed interest in getting one after riding around in them.

It also makes an impact on how much they are saving on “fuel” costs. It’s fascinating to hear how they are already changing their routines to hit up all the “free” charging places which are also around shopping areas and casinos they would’ve never stopped at in the past.

 

[Reciprocity]

You literally just said that "the issue is that they [Chinese companies] can't make a billion of them at $100/KWh". Yet you don't think that an order-of-magnitude reduction of expensive and hard-to-find cobalt is substantial? I'll clarify -- the moat is Tesla engineering's choices (cylindrical cells vs pouch or solid state), research (Jeff Dahn contributions), and years of advancement in chemistry R&D. And this shows up in the real world -- e.g. the Jaguar iPace that has a 90KWh battery but gets 20% less range than equivalent Tesla pack capacity.

All these other advances you mention are still sitting in labs and who knows when they show up? But Tesla's is in Production today, driving on the roads (parked in my driveway... hmmm... have to go for a drive). Where was I? Oh yeah, it's easy to quantify a lowest-cost mass production moat -- that's what Chinese companies excel at. What is less visible until years later is an engineering and talent moat. I invest in Tesla because I think there's more there than first-mover advantage and they'll continue to be 5 years ahead of everyone else for several years to come.

I never says the Chinese can't make a billion of them. I said no one can today. Because they seem to have misplaced their time machine. If they could go back in time and so things differently, maybe they would. China doesn't use cylindrical cells either, so copying the model 3 cells is easy, but building a $5B factory to make them in volumes and automation required to hit $100KWh is the moat that keeps Tesla ahead to build the next moat. I'm certain Tesla has some ridiculously advanced cells in their pipeline as well. The problem is always going to be scale. Tesla needs to further prove they can scale. GF1 is a good test case for that, need to see costs come down on storage and volumes but their 35GWh targets for the first 1/3 of the factory, but they seem well on their way.

 

[winfield100]

ng (R)alpha, as they mosty talk on 'porc'eline phones. they are Klik bait (IMHO)

I drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.

In Rockville, Maryland, USA, (5 miles from service center) saw 3 model S, a model X and !!! 3 !!! model 3's driving. a red one and 2 blue ones just wandering around on the streets (one of the model S had Florida plates, meaning from at least 700 miles minimum away. there were also 10+ Model 3's at service center getting prepped for delivery. they are getting very much everywhere around here in Maryland it seems

 

[scaesare]

ng (R)alpha, as they mosty talk on 'porc'eline phones. they are Klik bait (IMHO)

In Rockville, Maryland, USA, (5 miles from service center) saw 3 model S, a model X and !!! 3 !!! model 3's driving. a red one and 2 blue ones just wandering around on the streets (one of the model S had Florida plates, meaning from at least 700 miles minimum away. there were also 10+ Model 3's at service center getting prepped for delivery. they are getting very much everywhere around here in Maryland it seems

Agreed... I see a one at least once or twice a week somewhere here in Northern VA or along my commute to Rockville.

Saw a beautiful deep red one on my way back up from Richmond last night... if you're here on the board, that was me in the blue S giving you the thumbs up...