JRP3
Hyperactive Member
"If you don't like volatility don't buy our stock" If you want boring Tesla isn't the right company for you, and The Boring Co. isn't public.
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You haven't posted anything yet to support your assertions, either that other companies have cells that are as capable as Tesla's M3 batteries or that battery chemistry (i.e. total performance profile) matters little to Tesla's total moat against losing it's lead in the next five or more years. So your being 100% sure of an unsupported statement means nothing.
You don't get that Tesla's moat is not one single advantage but the sum of many advantages. I don't think any of the moat advantages are bigger than Tesla already having a GF built, operating and set to expand cell production several times over the next several years.
But that in no way means that other advantages - especially their cells having better performance than those available to other EV manufacturers - are unimportant. Elon and J.B. don't monitor new battery developments as closely as they do, nor fund partners like Jeff Dahl, because cell performance isn't important! Cathode and anode refinements improving per cell energy density are the drivers of continued cost per KWh reductions Tesla is confident enough about to promise range and power for the Semi at an attractive cost.
Building more GFs is critical so fast ramping EV and Storage products are possible. Not that each new GF is going to produce cells for 20, 30 or 40% less cost than GF1 (already optimized due to scale and automation improvements). There will be further production cost reductions moving forward, but they are necessarily slower and more modest than what Elon and JB know is possible with improving batteries 7 - 10% annually.
That is one of silliest things I've read here lately. Thanks for laugh!Tesla uses cylinders because the most commonly purchased battery is the AA.
Or have significantly shorter lifetime. Do they have someone like Jeff Dahn to do their testing and predicting?The Porsche Taycan may be able to charge at 350 kW. But if so, the pack will be significantly heavier and costlier than if it had been limited to 100-150 kW.
No.
It is because grain silos are cylinders.
Same reason Falcon 9 is a cylinder.
AA batteries were originally called Agricultural Activators due to allowing farmers to work at night without risk of fire from lanterns.
AAA were Agricultural Activators Attenuated due to smaller size.
(Or it's due to the optimized surface area to volume ratio along with inherent structurally strength, who can say...)
Even Panasonic is setting up tp manufacture prismatic EV cells.
In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.
I drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.
Two things:.. particularly in California.
Two things:
1) There's now a boatload of Model 3's cruising CA.
2) Brain chemistry is weird.
Years ago, when I did my self-install of rooftop PV, I used to stand out back with a margarita in the sunshine, staring at the meter running backwards. Only the dog joined me for this frequent ritual. I think the backwards spinning meter was a dopamine hit (for me, not dog). Later, when I happened by someone's house and saw fresh rooftop PV, I'd crave a margarita.
Now, I guess "transference" has occurred. Driving up I-5, I see quite a few Teslas, but this most recent trip driving up from SoCal, Model 3's were very frequently in the oncoming lanes... sweet dopamine. This afternoon, walking along a narrow Santa Cruz, CA street in the apropos-of-nothing neighborhood named, Pleasure Point, I see yet another Model 3 with a young surfer couple suiting up and waxing down boards on the lee-side. Turn to spouse "thinking about a margarita, you?"
Dog woofs.
In due (Elon) time.There was supposed to be a show and tell, this weekend. Anyone knows what's up with it?
I drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.
You literally just said that "the issue is that they [Chinese companies] can't make a billion of them at $100/KWh". Yet you don't think that an order-of-magnitude reduction of expensive and hard-to-find cobalt is substantial? I'll clarify -- the moat is Tesla engineering's choices (cylindrical cells vs pouch or solid state), research (Jeff Dahn contributions), and years of advancement in chemistry R&D. And this shows up in the real world -- e.g. the Jaguar iPace that has a 90KWh battery but gets 20% less range than equivalent Tesla pack capacity.
All these other advances you mention are still sitting in labs and who knows when they show up? But Tesla's is in Production today, driving on the roads (parked in my driveway... hmmm... have to go for a drive). Where was I? Oh yeah, it's easy to quantify a lowest-cost mass production moat -- that's what Chinese companies excel at. What is less visible until years later is an engineering and talent moat. I invest in Tesla because I think there's more there than first-mover advantage and they'll continue to be 5 years ahead of everyone else for several years to come.
In Rockville, Maryland, USA, (5 miles from service center) saw 3 model S, a model X and !!! 3 !!! model 3's driving. a red one and 2 blue ones just wandering around on the streets (one of the model S had Florida plates, meaning from at least 700 miles minimum away. there were also 10+ Model 3's at service center getting prepped for delivery. they are getting very much everywhere around here in Maryland it seemsI drove about 150 miles worth of Los Angeles fwy today. I always see many Tesla’s when in LA, but usually the majority already have license plates. Today was different, I saw a majority of new Tesla’s with “zero emissions” plates. In other words I saw more new Tesla’s than usual. Lots of model 3’s and plenty of model s and x as well. I’d say at least 70% of what I saw are new cars. Not scientific but worth thinking about.
Agreed... I see a one at least once or twice a week somewhere here in Northern VA or along my commute to Rockville.ng (R)alpha, as they mosty talk on 'porc'eline phones. they are Klik bait (IMHO)
In Rockville, Maryland, USA, (5 miles from service center) saw 3 model S, a model X and !!! 3 !!! model 3's driving. a red one and 2 blue ones just wandering around on the streets (one of the model S had Florida plates, meaning from at least 700 miles minimum away. there were also 10+ Model 3's at service center getting prepped for delivery. they are getting very much everywhere around here in Maryland it seems