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GME and AMC stock action (out of main)
- Thread starter Electroman
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The official number wasn't out as of 8pm and I don't see it anywhere as of this post. It's physically impossible for SI to go from 61M to 2xM in a couple weeks when there's no float.
It has been out since ~1 PM. It is just that NYSE doesn't make it freely available like NASDAQ does. (At least not that I could find.)
Now that I am back at my PC I could grab what I saw much earlier today:
As far as the impossibilitiy, of course it is possible. They just had to buy ~40M shares. And with an average volume of ~32M shares that would mean that they only had to buy ~12.5% of the shares traded each day and return them.
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Seeing this for the first time. Thanks @MP3Mike
This is consistent with the borrow availability and borrow rate which are their highest and lowest respectively in about a year.
Data here.
IBorrowDesk
This is consistent with the borrow availability and borrow rate which are their highest and lowest respectively in about a year.
Data here.
IBorrowDesk
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
The official FINRA number finally seems to have been printed around 8:30 @ 78.46% short interest as of Jan 29th. GME closed at $325 Jan 29th and proceeded a very TSLA-esque walkdown to $50 today. Knowing only what my eyes see and what I've learned watching TSLA here, how do I not conclude GME short interest is still well beyond 100% of the float?
Hedge fund offices let the short interest cutoff(Jan 29) pass, then immediately begin re-shorting like crazy to walk the SP down from $325. Tons of retails sell in concert, but we all know the kind of shorting required to drive down SP in that manner over a mere few days of trading.
I started off with one token share at $147, grabbed another at something like $100 to avg down, and kept going til today with 40ish shares at a $79 avg price. I'm feeling good holding that amount to sell when these guys actually have to cover. There is still relatively no one to buy shares from. Not as pronounced as before, but I expect some modest buying from all angles to soak up more float by the end the week.
With the specter of $1400 checks on the very near horizon, hedgies should see the writing on the wall and begin to front run again. Either that or these retail nutjobs will not understand the data and the bail will accelerate as the shorts planned. Doesn't appear they have yet, so I can't imagine they will now. Though there is a LOT of FUD noise other there pretending short interest is practically zero. Hedgies should divine similar conclusions from the data. Tomorrow through Friday should be interesting.
Edit: Lol @ the FINRA update timestamp of 7:00pm......it wasn't posted til nearly 9:30. Nothing shady about that at all.
Hedge fund offices let the short interest cutoff(Jan 29) pass, then immediately begin re-shorting like crazy to walk the SP down from $325. Tons of retails sell in concert, but we all know the kind of shorting required to drive down SP in that manner over a mere few days of trading.
I started off with one token share at $147, grabbed another at something like $100 to avg down, and kept going til today with 40ish shares at a $79 avg price. I'm feeling good holding that amount to sell when these guys actually have to cover. There is still relatively no one to buy shares from. Not as pronounced as before, but I expect some modest buying from all angles to soak up more float by the end the week.
With the specter of $1400 checks on the very near horizon, hedgies should see the writing on the wall and begin to front run again. Either that or these retail nutjobs will not understand the data and the bail will accelerate as the shorts planned. Doesn't appear they have yet, so I can't imagine they will now. Though there is a LOT of FUD noise other there pretending short interest is practically zero. Hedgies should divine similar conclusions from the data. Tomorrow through Friday should be interesting.
Edit: Lol @ the FINRA update timestamp of 7:00pm......it wasn't posted til nearly 9:30. Nothing shady about that at all.
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Sounds like you picked a nice hill to die on. Maybe what you are saying have some validity. However WSB and the movement have moved on. Diamond hands were only diamond when it was massively green every day. You now have the psychology of negative emotions against you with zero fundamentals backing up this stock. They didn't even raise capital which would have been a decent life line.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There were never any fundamentals back up this stock, it was an entirely structural thesis from the start. And the media narrative the structure was completely eroded turned out to be completely false.
As a TMC'er you're contractually obligated to call out such nonsense, not buy into their "news" that this has entirely passed! If it had passed, short interest wouldn't be just as high as it was when this all started.
As a TMC'er you're contractually obligated to call out such nonsense, not buy into their "news" that this has entirely passed! If it had passed, short interest wouldn't be just as high as it was when this all started.
You just said there's no fundamentals backing up the stock price. Sounds like the smarter play is to short this from the top all the way down. So why wouldn't SI be the same?
But it isn't. Short interest hasn't been as low as it is now for more than a year. (It was 141% on 2/14/2020 and it is only 45% now.)
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Shorting from the top all the way down would certainly be the smart play, I'm not really looking for the smart play. My point is that the setup remains relatively the same, while the narrative seems to be that "it's over". I see no actual factors that tell me it's over other than the constant refrain that "it's over". The short position almost certainly remains above 100%.
It's over because wsb/news cycle/general public moved on. I mean if the army comes back it can easily go back to 200. But seems that the army has been disbanded.
Yeah, even if everything said was true, if there's no one try actually push then it makes no difference.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
When short interest is over 100% you don't have to push, it simply requires holding by a large portion of shareholders as the clock ticks on under water shorts. Everyone can agree that hedge funds would logically short while RH was limiting people's ability to buy shares so that SP would drop and anyone willing to sell would bail. Literally their only option. But now we have the same short position as before and no indication retail has considerably fewer shares.
In other words, all these bag holders are still holding the bag. And there's enough shares in that bag to cause essentially the same problem all over again. Simply saying "it's over" or "there's no momentum" isn't a rational argument. The price is $50 right now because no one is net buying or selling, doesn't mean the position isn't just as tenuous.
About 1.5M in volume hit in a period this morning and drove the SP up $10. How much of that 1.5M even nets out to short shares covered? Maybe 300k? It's just like TSLA whenever it's float is tight, the smallest buying is popping the SP.
In other words, all these bag holders are still holding the bag. And there's enough shares in that bag to cause essentially the same problem all over again. Simply saying "it's over" or "there's no momentum" isn't a rational argument. The price is $50 right now because no one is net buying or selling, doesn't mean the position isn't just as tenuous.
About 1.5M in volume hit in a period this morning and drove the SP up $10. How much of that 1.5M even nets out to short shares covered? Maybe 300k? It's just like TSLA whenever it's float is tight, the smallest buying is popping the SP.
So you are saying that the NYSE is lying when they say that the short interest was ~45% on 1/29? Or are you saying that they re-shorted it back to over 100% since then?
I guess we get to wait until the 23rd to see what the SI was on the 12th... (Or do you think they are covering just before the reporting and then re-shorting immediately afterwards to hide what they are doing?)
He is saying on 1/29 the share price was above $300, since then it has been pushed down to $50, which takes a lot of shorting to achieve. Of course, it could also be a lot of longs selling, so it is anyone's guess which is the case.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Answered this a ways back. The official FINRA number is 78.64%, and that's the number(from what I gather) considered most accurate. It was released at 9:30 last night.
To repeat my assumptions:
1) These figures are voluntarily reported to the pseudo-private entity FINRA and come with a $149k fine for false reporting. Certainly incentivizes a strategic miscount, if the count is going to be off in either direction.
2) At 78.64% of the float, short interest is obviously higher than can be covered if most shareholders hold. And an average holder today is likely considerably less weak than those that already sold. Logically hedge funds would wait til Jan 29 has passed before re-shorting if their goal was to tell the narrative their position has been covered. Therefore it's also likely far higher than 78.64%.
As with TSLA so many times over the years, the narrative we're seeing is completely disconnected from the reality of simple market observations. I'll go with market observations over CNBC headlines every time.
I do think it's unlikely a similar level of momentum can be built organically to squeeze this up to $400 right now, but I do think the $1400 checks might have that impact. It wouldn't take much buying to push things up and ratchet the pressure on shorts again.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that's not how big hedge funds with MM priviledges hide their FTDs. They do it by swapping them in collusion with eachother to continuously reset the FTD clock counter.
Doing this, abusive hedge funds can keep naked short positions open for years without ever reporting them to the SEC. In the mean time, they try to bankrupt the business they're attacking so that the shorts NEVER have to be covered.
The methodology of the attack is well-detailed at this site:
But it all comes down to exploiting the Options Market Maker's exemption to the SEC's prohibition against naked short selling (Regulation SHO).
And Tesla proved in Aug 2020 that they know how to disarm their attackers: share dividends. Because Options Market Makers can not counterfeit dividend shares.
I look forward to a time when this understanding spreads to other Companies under shortzes attack like GameStop (who failed to respond to the January event and missed their opportunity).
Although, it's now clear that r/WSB's is fully aware of this cure to the disease of naked short selling. Onward!
Cheers!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
So a GME 2/1 share split and a $15B offering @ $420 to bail out the shorts and leave no bag-holders. Sounds good.
Excited to see GME's new post-retail plan for the future!
Excited to see GME's new post-retail plan for the future!
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