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everyone is hedging on the 200 mile car.
Nissan and GM have them in the wings, but they can't commit to producing a whole bunch of them yet because battery manufacturing isn't there (yet).
They aren't ready to produce enough cells to cover current market volumes when the pack size is doubled or tripled.
If we take current battery/cell manufacturing capacity and double the pack size, they can only produce half the number of vehicles - or less if pack size is three times bigger.
Catch 22 for them
Apple doesn't sell the most phones either but they rake in the majority of the profits.Battery production is the big bottleneck right now. Tesla currently uses 10% of the world production of lithium ion batteries for the Model S and it's why they are investing in the Gigafactory. Without doubling world production of batteries, the production goal of 500,000 Model 3s a year is impossible. And that still puts Tesla at lower production numbers than every other major automaker selling in the US. Subaru is the smallest mainstream car maker selling in the US and they produce just shy of 900,000 cars a year. Tesla gets a lot of press and of course this forum is a hotbed of all things Tesla, but EVs are still a tiny segment of the market and even when the Model 3 is in full production that market segment could only be called "small".
The BYD is mass produced and has 175 mi range. No U.S. Market.
ExactlyBattery production is the big bottleneck right now. Tesla currently uses 10% of the world production of lithium ion batteries for the Model S and it's why they are investing in the Gigafactory. Without doubling world production of batteries, the production goal of 500,000 Model 3s a year is impossible. And that still puts Tesla at lower production numbers than every other major automaker selling in the US. Subaru is the smallest mainstream car maker selling in the US and they produce just shy of 900,000 cars a year. Tesla gets a lot of press and of course this forum is a hotbed of all things Tesla, but EVs are still a tiny segment of the market and even when the Model 3 is in full production that market segment could only be called "small".
(snip)
Now, I totally agree Toyota dropped the ball here (personally, I'm really pissed how they limited the RAV4 EV production, but you can thank CARB and lack of profit for that one), but remember, they have been investing in fuel cell tech for years now, and it's difficult to convince people to buy your new inferior product when the existing tech is much better and more affordable. Eventually, they'll have to give in and stop their public EV hating campaigns, it's just a matter of time now.
We all know Tesla is government funded and therefore they likely have more resources than any other manufacturer.
I think all car manufacturers had years of experimenting and market research in their head. EV were expensive, mostly because of the battery so every EV made was equipped with a small battery to keep cost down. To reduce cost more they all used mid to lower level cars as a basis. Nothing anyone wants to buy. People buy these cars because they can't afford more. But that was the way to make EVs in the past. EVs were made and sold as being eco friendly, being rational, doing the right thing, rather than emotion.
Tesla is the only one that went the opposite way. They realized we can't keep the cost down if we want decent range, so let's try to go for a higher end car where people are willing to spend more money on and where the profit margins are much higher. Placing the Model S in the upper class segment they were going for customers that are willing to spend more on a car that sets them apart.
Every other manufacturer was aiming for efficiency and compact and cost effective. It's un-sexy and not a profitable market. Tesla went for the opposite. A high performance car, luxury car, a sexy car.
Now why did no one else think the same way as Elon? That's exactly his brilliance. Seeing a path to success that everyone else thinks is not going to work. Of course now they all follow and do the same thing.
Well, I would say the problem here also somewhat leads in the topic. We all know Tesla is government funded and therefore they likely have more resources than any other manufacturer.
I've seen an EV named Onuk by DMA in this year's autoshow here in Turkey. It's a carbon copy of the Roadster. It has a similar range, it looks like an Elise and well, it pretty much is one... except that it probably is made out of somewhat cheaper parts and its 0-100 is 6.5.
The Turkish government is also readying up an another that reminds of the BMW 645, but with 4 doors. Both are OTW, however funding is a problem and so is the market which is flooded with ICEs. Time is what is needed for EVs to really take off at this rate.
How, exactly, did CARB make the Rav4 EV a limited production? It would not have existed AT ALL without CARB, both in 1997-2003 and 2012-2014.
Absolutely untrue as pointed out be several other posters, and it is obviously absurd to say that Tesla has "more resources than any other manufacturer". Tesla is a tiny company compared to all other auto manufacturers that mass produce cars. In the US all new EV sales qualify for a $7,500 tax credit which of course proportionately helps vehicles like the Leaf far more than it does Tesla.Well, I would say the problem here also somewhat leads in the topic. We all know Tesla is government funded and therefore they likely have more resources than any other manufacturer.
Tesla is neither "government funded" nor do they have more resources than any other manufacturer. I think your confusing tax credits and other incentives available to all car manufactures as government funding of Tesla. Tesla simply does a lot with limited resources.
That's exactly my point. It was only built for CARB/ZEV credits, just like the fuel cell is reaping all the rewards now, instead of trying to help progress vehicle technology, and build this vehicle for every state.
The few thousand copies sold did not help with adoption of electric vehicles (IMO), as now Toyota gets to say that no one wants electric vehicles, and/or is willing to pay the $50k price tag for the RAV4 EV.
No doubt Tesla is using any tax credit, loophole and incentive they can legally get. That's part of running such a company. Any major company does this. Certainly the big car companies get similar benefits. So it's kind of a moot point to discuss benefits these large companies are able to get. They are similar across the board so they are not the reason no one else was able to make a similar EV so far. Lack of resources or money was certainly not the reason other car companies didn't.
Tesla isn't making an money up to date so that might explain why other car manufacturers weren't interested in the business of EVs. What none of them saw coming was the public success of the Model S. Despite not being a huge financial success so far, the reputation and attention Tesla has reached through the Model S is literally priceless. Of course now everyone is seeing it differently. Toyota sold 2.1 million cars in the same amount of time Tesla sold 11,000 cars. That's aprox 200 times more. So it's understandable that the car industry wasn't willing to spend a huge amount of money into developing a 0.5% market share product that makes no profit. I think none of them thought the Model S would be such a public success. They didn't think the change towards EVs would be so quick, thus their rather weak attempts in making good EVs up to now. I would say BMW is the only exception that made a decent enough effort. Again, I think it's clear the thinking has changed at the other car manufacturers.
I don't understand the title since I think there aren't any "mass-produced" EVs at the moment. The largest five car makers sell between 8-12 million vehicles a year each and a total of 85-100 million passenger cars are produced annually this decade (roughly a quarter of global output is being sold in China alone).
Even counting/adding PEHVs there is no "mass-production" of xEVs at the moment - regardless of range achieved. The output numbers are simply too small.
I don't think we can speak of "mass-production" before 1 million pure BEVs are produced per year - that (equal to around 1% car market share) might take until the end of this decade (and even adding PHEVs, total output will still be in the single digits) - Tesla will only get to around half a percent of passenger car marketshare at full output in the most optimistic scenario.
PS: The only mass-produced electric vehicles are bicycles with batteries at the moment.
I don't think you get to make up your own definition of what is or isn't "mass produced".