Help! I am getting cold feet

[jerry33]

The test drive vehicle was a P85 with snow tires. ... However, the driveway can get a lot more icy, so I went up very slowly (which worked fine in my X3) and the car came to a standstill and slid backwards because of traction control.

If it had the Pirelli snow tires, that's the expected behaviour--they really aren't that good for snow and ice as they are designed for high speeds in cold weather rather than. There are even videos of this behaviour from last year in the winter tire thread.

 

[Todd Burch]

I thought so exactly until I heard THREE rows of adult seats. I am done with minivans; grown kids. I want a 4WD Model S. Sounds like this is possible, but not until 2016 or so.

PS - in answer to other questions - I have a BMW X3. The test drive vehicle was a P85 with snow tires. It really performed quite well going quickly up the driveway. However, the driveway can get a lot more icy, so I went up very slowly (which worked fine in my X3) and the car came to a standstill and slid backwards because of traction control. So, I took traction control off and that is when it fishtailed. Someone asked about that.

Despite my reservations, I am actually thinking that I will place a deposit this weekend.

PPS - I am not a stickler for lighted vanity mirrors. They just represent a bunch of things which typically come standard in a luxury car at this price point.

Here's another thought for you: how often is your driveway actually icy? I'm from Chicago and it didn't happen all that often. Could you not park on the street or throw down salt, sand, or cat litter for those days when it's too icy to go up the driveway?

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla has a plan to go from early adopter to mass market. The started out with the Roadster, a 2 seat modified Lotus for proof of concept, and to learn the market.

They followed this up with a fully designed in house 4 door sedan to appeal to a larger marketplace. Early adopters could get a smaller battery pack, but Tesla adapeted and began to stress the longer endurance 60 and 80 size batteries. They expanded the market place by offering even more upscale performance motor and handling models with larger, and more stylish wheel options.

They will soon expand their marketplace with a 4 wheel drive SUV, and already are in the planning stages to release a much less expensive model family sedan for the less wealthy.

So if their first sedan does not have all the bells and whistles that are on other vehicles, it is just because they are moving up the evolutionary scale that other vehicle makers have been on for decades.

For years Mercedes was reluctant to provide cup holders for their drivers. Finally they relented when their President saw someone driving down the road with a cup holder in their Gold Wing motorcycle. Some things just take a bit of time.

 

[pbleic]

That is just due to an oddity in GAAP accounting where some of the profits are postponed until later years.

Nope. That is not what this is about. GAAP is the standard, accepted accounting methodology, and is the measure of profitability, period. Companies report non-GAAP numbers because they have a one time expense such as a lawsuit, opening a factory, or as Tesla did in Q2, paying off a DOE loan early. That is a reasonable practice that most companies use. However, Tesla recently began doing something that many analysts see as quite controversial. They are accounting for their revenue on the re-sale of cars that will be "re-purchased" from buyers in 3 years. They are claiming that revenue as deferred revenues, estimating what they think they will make based upon a value that none of us can know. That effectively moves the revenues FORWARD from when they actually occur. Analysts are saying that this is effectively a leasing arrangement, and the revenues need to be taken when they actually occur at the price they actually occur at. This accounting method shifted them from non-profitable to slightly profitable for 3 quarters under this unusual non-GAAP methodology. Further, they apparently emphasized the non-GAAP numbers in their reporting, which is in opposition to SEC rules. There is a nice summary here: Are There Cockroaches Under Tesla’s Hood? - Bloomberg

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Here's another thought for you: how often is your driveway actually icy? I'm from Chicago and it didn't happen all that often. Could you not park on the street or throw down salt, sand, or cat litter for those days when it's too icy to go up the driveway?

Actually a fair bit of the winter; we are north facing. Yes, I have been thinking (as I come closer to pulling the trigger) that I will just have to be more aggressive with salt/sand. Staying on the street won't work; overnight parking results in a ticket in the winter.

 

[EnergyMax]

@Kruggerand Tesla is not already successful. They have a long way to go in going from the early adopters who have bought a tiny number of cars to the mainstream. They aren't profitable yet and have financial multiples no different than any startup. They are just arriving at the chasm that can make or break companies. There is a limited market for a car at this price point and a huge challenge at meeting a mass market at the Model E price point. As a potential buyer, I really hope they can make it as I will be dependent on their success. It is easy for buyers and companies to get fooled into complacency. Witness Betamax.

How quickly you move from your initial "concerns" into every more baseless troll territory. You sound like Logical Thought.

 

[woof]

not to mention that everyone in the car knows how far it is to the next stop so negotiations between those with two-hour bladders and those with six-hour bladders are avoided.

And there it is! The number one reason to buy a Model S! Why wasn't this mentioned on the Tesla web page? Why isn't this mentioned elsewhere on this forum? How can we have gone on blabbering about this car and company for so long and no one mentioned this until now?

@Kruggerand Tesla is not already successful. They have a long way to go in going from the early adopters who have bought a tiny number of cars to the mainstream. They aren't profitable yet and have financial multiples no different than any startup.

And with this you and I will have to disagree. Tesla is successful by many many measures. Apparently not the one your accountant brain must be using (aka GAAP). What matters to me is the product is amazing, the brand is thriving, the cash in the bank is increasing, even with some heavy spending now and with even more to come in the future. This company is now about 11 years old...way beyond the startup phase. Initial investors have been payed back (with profit) with the IPO, there is little debt, headcount is at several thousand, and most importantly the cash coming in is greater than the cash going out. Startup? Nope.

The advantages Tesla has by just skirting the dealership model are incredible. Check out the angst the early BWM i3 buyers are having because the dealerships are playing their usual games on pricing above MSRP, adding "fees" and "marketing costs" as the dealer sharks sense demand is above supply. This is coming FROM the early adopters who really really want to get a cheaper premium EV than the Model S. And they seem to be as one in realizing the Tesla business model won't allow for that, and there are many who are willing to place a real value on not getting jerked around. It's the knowledge that the price shown is the price paid, and the piece of mind that affords.

You're looking for stability, well I'd be willing to put real $$$ down (and have via TSLA stock) that Tesla will be thriving in 10 years, and Chrysler won't. I'd bet real $ that in 20 years GM will be out of the passenger car business and build only heavy trucks, and Chrysler in 20 years will be dead and gone and we'll be left with the big two in the USA: Ford and Tesla.

 

[chickensevil]

That is just due to an oddity in GAAP accounting where some of the profits are postponed until later years. Bear in mind how accounting works:

A manager was interviewing some new prospective employees. The first applicant was an engineer. The manager asked, "How much is two plus two?". The engineer pulled out his laptop, typed in some formulae and responded, "Four". Next came a mathematician. The manager asked, "How much is two plus two?". The mathematician went to the blackboard wrote down some numbers and responded, "Four.". Then an accountant was interviewed. After being asked the same question, the accountant looked around, went to the windows and drew the curtains, went to the door looked out and closed the door. Then we went over to the manager and said, "How much would you like it to be?".

haha That is a pretty great joke!

@OP: You keep talking about the curve to mainstream and how peoples passion for the company and the dream doesn't impact this curve, I would have to contest this. As much as I hate Apple (for my own reasons) the reason they were successful was not just the cool sleek product that they released. They were not the first to make a decent MP3 player, they were behind by quite a few years. It was because of the way that Apple markets to people. Instead of telling people here is a cool product, and this is why you need it... They tell people that, hey we understand you... We are right there with you in this, believe in us, and we will make that happen... Oh yeah, and here is a product that goes toward that goal. That's why almost all people who own an apple product either got it because "it's an Apple" or because someone else got/convinced them to get it for that reason.

Tesla is working very much down the same path, and historically this has been the best marketing strategy (Apple is not the only one). It's why there are no, or very few, Prior Tesla owners who hated the car outright. Almost all the hate comes from people who have not bought into the car/company yet... And their opinion should not deflect you from an otherwise great product.

As far as crossing into the mainstream curve, I don't think Tesla or anyone expects that to happen until the Model E. All signs point to them doing at least 100k on their first year, when it is released, and jumping very rapidly toward 1 million a year. Given the latest consumer reports perception survey (which is basically a measure of people's opinions and not any real facts), Tesla now sits at number 5, in perception behind Toyota, ford, Chevy, and I think Honda. That is a really great place to be in their second year. I wouldn't think there will be any issue selling a 40k car.

 

[pbleic]

How quickly you move from your initial "concerns" into every more baseless troll territory. You sound like Logical Thought.

Seriously? Is it really necessary to move into ad hominem? I still have, and am discussing my original concerns. Do you really think that buyers of a car shouldn't think about or consider the financial viability of the company selling their car? Isn't that part of my equation in considering whether to buy this car? My comments are neither baseless nor incorrect. I am sorry if the financial risks in the company somehow make you upset and then you call me names.

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@OP: You keep talking about the curve to mainstream and how peoples passion for the company and the dream doesn't impact this curve, I would have to contest this. As much as I hate Apple (for my own reasons) the reason they were successful was not just the cool sleek product that they released. They were not the first to make a decent MP3 player, they were behind by quite a few years. It was because of the way that Apple markets to people. Instead of telling people here is a cool product, and this is why you need it... They tell people that, hey we understand you... We are right there with you in this, believe in us, and we will make that happen... Oh yeah, and here is a product that goes toward that goal. That's why almost all people who own an apple product either got it because "it's an Apple" or because someone else got/convinced them to get it for that reason.

Tesla is working very much down the same path, and historically this has been the best marketing strategy (Apple is not the only one). It's why there are no, or very few, Prior Tesla owners who hated the car outright. Almost all the hate comes from people who have not bought into the car/company yet... And their opinion should not deflect you from an otherwise great product.

As far as crossing into the mainstream curve, I don't think Tesla or anyone expects that to happen until the Model E. All signs point to them doing at least 100k on their first year, when it is released, and jumping very rapidly toward 1 million a year. Given the latest consumer reports perception survey (which is basically a measure of people's opinions and not any real facts), Tesla now sits at number 5, in perception behind Toyota, ford, Chevy, and I think Honda. That is a really great place to be in their second year. I wouldn't think there will be any issue selling a 40k car.

I agree with you. I didn't mean to imply that passions, etc. don't affect people's buying habits. But every technology - Apple or otherwise - only enters the mainstream when the buying transitions from the enthusiasts to people who just want a technology that works for them. The best example is the personal computer industry pre-IBM PC. Lots of enthusiasts doing amazing and cool things with the Apple II, the Commodore, etc. But the IBM PC launched with something special - a word processor and spreadsheet that were easy to use, and didn't require substantial technical expertise. These were things that ordinary people needed and the personal computer "crossed the chasm."

 

[EnergyMax]

Seriously? Is it really necessary to move into ad hominem? I still have, and am discussing my original concerns. Do you really think that buyers of a car shouldn't think about or consider the financial viability of the company selling their car? Isn't that part of my equation in considering whether to buy this car? My comments are neither baseless nor incorrect. I am sorry if the financial risks in the company somehow make you upset and then you call me names.

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I agree with you. I didn't mean to imply that passions, etc. don't affect people's buying habits. But every technology - Apple or otherwise - only enters the mainstream when the buying transitions from the enthusiasts to people who just want a technology that works for them. The best example is the personal computer industry pre-IBM PC. Lots of enthusiasts doing amazing and cool things with the Apple II, the Commodore, etc. But the IBM PC launched with something special - a word processor and spreadsheet that were easy to use, and didn't require substantial technical expertise. These were things that ordinary people needed and the personal computer "crossed the chasm."

I am not upset. I am saying Tesla has succeeded and its place is assured. You are bringing up points which have nothing to do with vanity lights and steep angle tailspin.

 

[pbleic]

I am not upset. I am saying Tesla has succeeded and its place is assured. You are bringing up points which have nothing to do with vanity lights and steep angle tailspin.

Yes, you are right. They weren't in my original post. But as I do research, there are other considerations that come up - long wait for repairs in case of an accident; financial stability.

I will say that I found this very positive fundamental analysis from last quarter: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Based On Its Recent Earnings, Tesla's Share Price Is Ahead Of Its Underlying Fundamentals - Seeking Alpha

That is comforting. I am trying to tick off and address the concerns I have in buying this very unique and amazing car. Believe me, I wouldn't be here if it wasn't for that!

 

[techMology]

The best example is the personal computer industry pre-IBM PC. Lots of enthusiasts doing amazing and cool things with the Apple II, the Commodore, etc. But the IBM PC launched with something special - a word processor and spreadsheet that were easy to use, and didn't require substantial technical expertise. These were things that ordinary people needed and the personal computer "crossed the chasm."

Yeah, not really accurate, even though I get your point.

The IBM PC was actually a flop (where are they now in the personal computer industry?). It was the PC clone industry and Microsoft who helped cross the chasm. Also, the Apple ][ was the first personal computer to popularize the spreadsheet with VisiCalc.

I get your "crossing the chasm" argument, however, I would argue that the Model S is not (and was never designed to) be that car. As others have pointed out, that car is the Model E.

You're not going to be able to compare luxury creature comforts in the MS with any luxury brand in the same price class. They won't stack up. I would argue the same could be argued the other way with regards to power train. They can't match Tesla in that regard.

 

[Ugliest1]

.... But every technology - Apple or otherwise - only enters the mainstream when the buying transitions from the enthusiasts to people who just want a technology that works for them. ...<snip>... These were things that ordinary people needed and the personal computer "crossed the chasm."

So, again, the chasm bridge would appear to have been planned by Tesla (years ago) as the Model E, their third generation vehicle, built for "ordinary people". Arguing about the chasm now is like arguing the number of angels on a pin - the angel-pin-reader will be here around 2017-18. What we *have seen* is Tesla with a published long term strategy, and making appropriate short- and medium term moves to advance towards the end strategic goal. Tesla is a very disruptive company on many fronts (as previous and other posts have pointed out in detail). Traditional market valuations still have their place, and yet they don't explain everything and aren't built to handle the kind of complex market and process change that Tesla is forcing. Even Tesla can't predict how things will change -- but that's the beauty of principle-based decision-making and an ethical company (IMO) -- Tesla doesn't have to FEAR what will change because they're driving a good chunk of it (or at least, they don't have to fear as much as the rest of the automotive market).

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Tahoma, Calibri, Geneva, sans-serif]Buying a Model S now, or reserving an X, is really a leap of faith, in Tesla as a company and in trusting the longevity of its products. There is no problem having concerns that hold you back from taking that leap. Wait until the bridge is built, then walk on the solid planks. [/FONT](Actually, for us buying/ordering now, the leap is more a short jump -- the founders and signatures were the ones who took the LEAP ...thankyou, thank you y'all, you know who you are.)

 

[pbleic]

So, again, the chasm bridge would appear to have been planned by Tesla (years ago) as the Model E, their third generation vehicle, built for "ordinary people". Arguing about the chasm now is like arguing the number of angels on a pin - the angel-pin-reader will be here around 2017-18. What we *have seen* is Tesla with a published long term strategy, and making appropriate short- and medium term moves to advance towards the end strategic goal. Tesla is a very disruptive company on many fronts (as previous and other posts have pointed out in detail). Traditional market valuations still have their place, and yet they don't explain everything and aren't built to handle the kind of complex market and process change that Tesla is forcing. Even Tesla can't predict how things will change -- but that's the beauty of principle-based decision-making and an ethical company (IMO) -- Tesla doesn't have to FEAR what will change because they're driving a good chunk of it (or at least, they don't have to fear as much as the rest of the automotive market).

Buying a Model S now, or reserving an X, is really a leap of faith, in Tesla as a company and in trusting the longevity of its products. There is no problem having concerns that hold you back from taking that leap. Wait until the bridge is built, then walk on the solid planks. (Actually, for us buying/ordering now, the leap is more a short jump -- the founders and signatures were the ones who took the LEAP ...thankyou, thank you y'all, you know who you are.)

Great post. I have taken leaps of faith before, but never at this price level. That being said, I have the car picked out in another tab and I am hovering over the order button.

So - blue exterior with black leather seats?

 

[Merrill]

Great post. I have taken leaps of faith before, but never at this price level. That being said, I have the car picked out in another tab and I am hovering over the order button.

So - blue exterior with black leather seats?

I respect all that you have said, to be truthful I was familiar with Tesla back in the beginning and did not pay much attention to them. Thought it was just someone with lots of money and a crazy business plan. I did pay attention to the company over the first years and realized at some point that this company was different. I still was not in the market for an expensive sports car, was driving Jaguars since 1970 and it was a love hate relationship. When I was in the market for an electric vehicle and wanted to move to a sedan, the model s caught my eye. By then I was familiar with the company and did the research about the design and knew that buying one of these was a bit of a gamble but chose to jump in and spend about 20k more than I have ever spent. As you have seen there are many of us who love the company and the car. So do not take what has been said on a personal level. We all hope you enjoy the experience no matter what decision you end up making.

 

[David Rhee]

It really is a leap of faith. Owning a Tesla is like a religious conversion! I have never felt this way about a car before, but I am completly smitten by my Model S. Don't sweat the small stuff and drink the Coolaid! You'll be happy you did!

 

[Krugerrand]

@Kruggerand Tesla is not already successful.

That's a matter of opinion, like the importance of lighted vanity mirrors. Every person they put in one of their cars (or put in another brand's EV) is one more notch in the success belt. Every new SuperCharger installed, every dealership lawsuit they win, and every new market they enter is another measure of success and one step closer to realizing their ultimate goal.

There are people who concern themselves specifically and singularly with the potential current financial state/future potential/longevity of a company and buy products based solely on that. But the beauty of cars is that there's this little thing called 'The Aftermarket' that has always existed for cars and is a multi-billion dollar market. I assure you it is alive and well, and will exist for Tesla vehicles just as it exists for hundreds of makes and models of cars that haven't been in production for decades.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftermarket_(automotive)

 

[dsm363]

I thought so exactly until I heard THREE rows of adult seats. I am done with minivans; grown kids. I want a 4WD Model S. Sounds like this is possible, but not until 2016 or so.

PS - in answer to other questions - I have a BMW X3. The test drive vehicle was a P85 with snow tires. It really performed quite well going quickly up the driveway. However, the driveway can get a lot more icy, so I went up very slowly (which worked fine in my X3) and the car came to a standstill and slid backwards because of traction control. So, I took traction control off and that is when it fishtailed. Someone asked about that.

Despite my reservations, I am actually thinking that I will place a deposit this weekend.

PPS - I am not a stickler for lighted vanity mirrors. They just represent a bunch of things which typically come standard in a luxury car at this price point.

Actually they talked about an AWD Model S coming out near launch of model X so early 2015.

 

[chickensevil]

Great post. I have taken leaps of faith before, but never at this price level. That being said, I have the car picked out in another tab and I am hovering over the order button.

So - blue exterior with black leather seats?

That is what I got, so I approve of this choice!

 

[Pate]

A wise work colleague once told me that all the big decissions in life are best made based only on a feeling. He meant choosing your career, your significant other, your house and your car. All of these decissions are so big and have so many aspects that if you try to approach them intellectually, you will get lost in self doubt. The best approach is to only ask yourself one simple question: Do you want this career/spouse/house/car? If the answer is yes, there is no reason to think the matter any further (or worry about cold feet).

But what do I know, I am single and don't own a house...

Pate

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Best advice I got on here when contemplating buying a Model S over a year ago was simply "if there's another car that would make you happier, buy it."

I had been bouncing back and forth between a 40kWh or a 60kWh. I took that advice to heart, bought a P85, and haven't regretted one bit.