Help me decide if I buy FSD this weekend, or not! ONCE AND FOR ALL.

[Daniel in SD]

I think this is the best idea

I think buying call options is the best idea. Buy 667 ($6k/$9 a piece) Jun 2021 call options @450. This gives some time just in case the robotaxi schedule slips to 2021. That should put Tesla's valuation at least equivalent to Waymo's estimated valuation of $175 billion which would be $977 a share. That works out to $351,509 which should be more than enough to pay for the FSD package even after the price increases.

 

[jebinc]

I think buying call options is the best idea. Buy 667 ($6k/$9 a piece) Jun 2021 call options @450. This gives some time just in case the robotaxi schedule slips to 2021. That should put Tesla's valuation at least equivalent to Waymo's estimated valuation of $175 billion which would be $977 a share. That works out to $351,509 which should be more than enough to pay for the FSD package even after the price increases.

I must say, "That's bold"! Good luck and I hope it comes true on that timeline...

 

[EVNow]

@EVNow - This statement is presumptuous, and could be misleading a new prospective buyer. The facts are, you can pay $6000 now (as you say, like a Kickstarter) and may get useful FSD-like functionality at some point in time. There is no certainty that waiting "Will cost more," when in fact it may actually cost less or the same. Agree with your other points.

My point was - how it is similar to Kick-Starter. Just like with a (some?) Kick-Starter - they say the price will go up later (just like Tesla is saying) but it may not.

For example: If desperate for cash (so they don't have to go hat in hand seeking to raise additional capital, which would be an embarrassment at this point for The Great One), you might see it be at $6000 or less in the future, depending on that and what functionality is actually released - and how those releases are viewed by the critics and customers. No one knows, so let's refrain from scare tactics to get noobs fork over $6000 today. I believe it's a 50-50 proposition that the price will go up by the release of v10/Enhanced Summon, but what happens after that will be subject to the all mighty "market forces"...

This is a highly trollish talking point very similar to what shorts say all the time.

Are you sure you haven't shorted TSLA or own some puts ?

To quote @diplomat33 's statement - "if Tesla really does achieve true full self-driving" - Tesla will have ZERO problems raising money, since the stock price will hoot up like a SpaceX rocket. It is so blindingly obvious I've no idea why you would contest that and add all kinds of FUD about Tesla would be "desperate" for cash.

You can save this post - let me reiterate - if robotaxi like self driving becomes possible on Tesla, the FSD price will be more than 10x what it is now. Infact by my calculation 1 Tesla with working FSD is worth over $250k (using ARK model).

 

[electronblue]

I think it is common sense that the price of FSD will increase over time as new features are released. It's economics 101. When a product increases in value, it causes demand to increase, which in turn causes the price to increase. And let's face it: if Tesla really does achieve true full self-driving at some point in the future, the "FSD" package on the website will become a super hot item! Heck, even if "FSD" just gets close to true full self-driving, it will become a really hot item.

Now, Tesla may do a sale but I doubt the price will drop to less than it is now. for example, when FSD is complete, say the price goes up to $10k. Tesla may do a sale at $8k. So the price will drop from its original price, but it won't drip below what it is now.

The problem is once again: This is not the historical reality with Tesla.

While the same common sense — and indeed Tesla (!) — said starting in 2016 that the cheapest way to get EAP+FSD was to pre-order... suddenly early this year they cut that price in half to sell more FSD in a what we must assume was a cash raise, because otherwise it makes no sense. Some people pre-paid $10k at a time when LESS features were out and others paid $5k later with MORE features out.

All it takes is for Tesla to want a demand lever, for whatever reason, for FSD price to go down again. So it is very possible one can buy FSD at less than $6k in the future. Not guaranteed but possibe.

 

[electronblue]

My point was - how it is similar to Kick-Starter. Just like with a (some?) Kick-Starter - they say the price will go up later (just like Tesla is saying) but it may not.

I think you failed to acknowledge the third alternative: FSD price may also go down in the future. That was @jebinc ’s point I think.

 

[electronblue]

What Tesla is selling as "FSD" is essentially the promise that autopilot will automate more and more of the driving over time. The car will not be a robotaxi anytime soon but Tesla plans to keep rolling out new features that will keep adding to what autopilot can do. In the short term, we can expect that autopilot will automate more and more of the driving but we will still need to pay attention. In the long term, Tesla hopes that as they add more and more functionality, autopilot will eventually be able to automate all the driving tasks reliably, and thereby achieve true full self-driving.

No actually what Tesla is selling is robotaxis next year in the U.S. That is what their CEO said.

 

[diplomat33]

The problem is once again: This is not the historical reality with Tesla.

While the same common sense — and indeed Tesla (!) — said starting in 2016 that the cheapest way to get EAP+FSD was to pre-order... suddenly early this year they cut that price in half to sell more FSD in a what we must assume was a cash raise, because otherwise it makes no sense. Some people pre-paid $10k at a time when LESS features were out and others paid $5k later with MORE features out.

All it takes is for Tesla to want a demand lever, for whatever reason, for FSD price to go down again. So it is very possible one can buy FSD at less than $6k in the future. Not guaranteed but possibe.

I think your logic holds true right now because FSD is not finished yet. As long as FSD is just a future promise and no major features have been released yet, yes Tesla can play demand lever games. Right now, FSD's value is hypothetical. But I think once major FSD features are released, that logic falls apart because FSD will become much more tangible, hence it will gain real value. Once FSD gains real value, then demand will affect price and the price will have to go up. And of course, when Tesla finishes true FSD, the real value will be so high that it will impossible for Tesla to offer a sale below $6000.

 

[diplomat33]

No actually what Tesla is selling is robotaxis next year in the U.S. That is what their CEO said.

Don't try to give me "but Elon said" argument. You and I both know that robotaxis won't happen next year.

 

[electronblue]

I think your logic holds true right now because FSD is not finished yet. As long as FSD is just a future promise and no major features have been released yet, yes Tesla can play demand lever games. Right now, FSD's value is hypothetical. But I think once major FSD features are released, that logic falls apart because FSD will become much more tangible, hence it will gain real value. Once FSD gains real value, then demand will affect price and the price will have to go up. And of course, when Tesla finishes true FSD, the real value will be so high that it will impossible for Tesla to offer a sale below $6000.

I’m not sure that is true and here is why.

Unlike other features, selling AP/FSD is ”free”. The cost of the hardware is a ”sunk” cost, there is no shipping and minimal processing. The perfect ingredients then for a demand lever.

Of course if those features mean it sells as well as it can at full price then they won’t need to lower the price but if they see a percentage of fleet without and they need a demand lever, pulling it makes sense at any time they feel the need to tap into that market-in-waiting.

 

[electronblue]

Don't try to give me "but Elon said" argument. You and I both know that robotaxis won't happen next year.

Be honest about what Tesla has been selling us.

If you mean to say you don’t think it will happen, spell it out. Don’t make it sound like Tesla said it.

Tesla said robotaxis somewhere in the U.S. next year. Level 5 no geofence feature complete this year. This is what they sold to the market.

Until Tesla retracts, that is their story. We can all watch the Autonomy Investory Day video. Have they retracted somewhere?

 

[diplomat33]

Be honest about what Tesla has been selling us.

If you mean to say you don’t think it will happen, spell it out. Don’t make it sound like Tesla said it.

Tesla said robotaxis somewhere in the U.S. next year. Level 5 no geofence feature complete this year. This is what they sold to the market.

Until Tesla retracts, that is their story. We can all watch the Autonomy Investory Day video. Have they retracted somewhere?

I was not changing what Tesla is advertising. When I wrote that "What Tesla is selling as "FSD" is essentially the promise that autopilot will automate more and more of the driving over time", I was trying to explain what owners can expect when they purchase the "FSD" package. I don't want new owners to think that if they buy "FSD" that their car will instantly become a robotaxi overnight. It does not work that way. Rather, if they buy "FSD" today, they can expect OTA updates that add more capabilities to Autopilot over time eventually leading up to becoming a robotaxi. I think that is a fair description of how FSD will roll out.

Yes, Tesla's plan is that the FSD OTA updates will lead to "L5 no geofence feature complete" by the end of this year and robotaxis sometime next year. That is indeed the timeline that Tesla is advertising and shooting for.

I was talking about process and you are talking about the end goal. Of course, my personal opinion is that I don't think Tesla will achieve true robotaxis (no driver supervision) by next year.

 

[Bet TSLA]

You'll get some fun stuff to play with for your money. If spending the money is a hardship, don't spend it on FSD. Me, I got FSD on both my cars and I love watching it get better and better. The entertainment value is awesome.

 

[jebinc]

My point was - how it is similar to Kick-Starter. Just like with a (some?) Kick-Starter - they say the price will go up later (just like Tesla is saying) but it may not.


This is a highly trollish talking point very similar to what shorts say all the time.

Are you sure you haven't shorted TSLA or own some puts ?

To quote @diplomat33 's statement - "if Tesla really does achieve true full self-driving" - Tesla will have ZERO problems raising money, since the stock price will hoot up like a SpaceX rocket. It is so blindingly obvious I've no idea why you would contest that and add all kinds of FUD about Tesla would be "desperate" for cash.

You can save this post - let me reiterate - if robotaxi like self driving becomes possible on Tesla, the FSD price will be more than 10x what it is now. Infact by my calculation 1 Tesla with working FSD is worth over $250k (using ARK model).

You'll get some fun stuff to play with for your money. If spending the money is a hardship, don't spend it on FSD. Me, I got FSD on both my cars and I love watching it get better and better. The entertainment value is awesome.

Your screen name is telling!

 

[MaryAnning3]

If you have the $ I would buy it now. You might save money. What you are buying, what I bought, is whatever Tesla does going forward to make EAP even better. EAP drives the car for me about 80% of the time as it is. That impresses me. It is beyond my expectations. Tesla is the leader in this, clearly. They have invented a great EAP system, maybe they will make it better? I don't care what Elon says on twitter. I know what I experience is in my car and its is literally amazing. I think people who complain and are negative either:
1) don't live in an area where EAP works well,
2) don't understand how to use EAP effectively or are pre-dispositioned to be uncomfortable with it.
or
3) have renormalized their expectations in a way I disagree with (if it isn't perfect FSD it is nothing).
...
or, i'll add one more,
4) see themselves in a personal conflict with Elon and are offended by his inaccurate tweets.
It is more or less an objective fact that EAP is an amazing technology that many people find useful and with more than one billion hours to demonstrate its utility and safety.

 

[rdskill]

Ok, so one of the reasons I bought a Tesla was because I think FSD is cool. But, I did not get it at delivery....

All logical reasoning aside, do I buy this or not?

Decide for me

Naw. Doesn't work reliably. Still wants to cut off a car coming at high speed in the lane it wants to be in.

Heck, the damn wipers don't even work automatically.

Hmmm...Maybe the wipers working properly should be the benchmark.

Or wait for HW v5 and all the dust to settle on all the lawsuits.

 

[electronblue]

What Tesla is selling as "FSD" is essentially the promise that autopilot will automate more and more of the driving over time.

Sorry @diplomat33 but when you say stuff like this you are minimizing — ignoring, really — the discrepancy between what Tesla IS actively selling vs. what you believe is the truth about the what the customer will get.

Tesla is not essentially selling that promise you outline. They are selling Level 5 feature complete in 2019. They are selling driverless robotaxis somewhere in the U.S. next year. They are selling Enhanced Summon in your car TODAY ”Really.” This is Tesla's promise, amongst many others made related to FSD.

What you say may well be true about what Tesla will deliver, but that is not Tesla’s promise. Not ”essentially”. And not ”Really." And definitely not ”definitely”.

I was not changing what Tesla is advertising. When I wrote that "What Tesla is selling as "FSD" is essentially the promise that autopilot will automate more and more of the driving over time", I was trying to explain what owners can expect when they purchase the "FSD" package. I don't want new owners to think that if they buy "FSD" that their car will instantly become a robotaxi overnight. It does not work that way. Rather, if they buy "FSD" today, they can expect OTA updates that add more capabilities to Autopilot over time eventually leading up to becoming a robotaxi. I think that is a fair description of how FSD will roll out.

Yes, Tesla's plan is that the FSD OTA updates will lead to "L5 no geofence feature complete" by the end of this year and robotaxis sometime next year. That is indeed the timeline that Tesla is advertising and shooting for.

I was talking about process and you are talking about the end goal. Of course, my personal opinion is that I don't think Tesla will achieve true robotaxis (no driver supervision) by next year.

 

[diplomat33]

Sorry @diplomat33 but when you say stuff like this you are minimizing — ignoring, really — the discrepancy between what Tesla IS actively selling vs. what you believe is the truth about the what the customer will get.

Tesla is not essentially selling that promise you outline. They are selling Level 5 feature complete in 2019. They are selling driverless robotaxis somewhere in the U.S. next year. They are selling Enhanced Summon in your car TODAY ”Really.” This is Tesla's promise, amongst many others made related to FSD.

What you say may well be true about what Tesla will deliver, but that is not Tesla’s promise. Not ”essentially”. And not ”Really." And definitely not ”definitely”.

Where do you see that they are selling driverless robotaxis by next year? I can't find any reference to that on the website? That's a prediction by Elon, yes. You might argue that Elon is selling robotaxis by next year. But the Tesla website is NOT selling driverless robotaxis by next year. There is 0 reference to that on the website.

And yes, Tesla is selling the promise I outline. Here is what the website says:

"The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates."

So, according to the website, Tesla is selling cars with the hardware for full self-driving and selling autopilot self-driving features that are not autonomous now but will improve over time with updates to become autonomous later. I simply expanded a bit on what customers can expect as the updates roll out.

 

[electronblue]

Where do you see that they are selling driverless robotaxis by next year? I can't find any reference to that on the website? That's a prediction by Elon, yes. You might argue that Elon is selling robotaxis by next year. But the Tesla website is NOT selling driverless robotaxis by next year. There is 0 reference to that on the website.

And yes, Tesla is selling the promise I outline. Here is what the website says:

"The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates."

So, according to the website, Tesla is selling cars with the hardware for full self-driving and selling autopilot self-driving features that are not autonomous now but will improve over time with updates to become autonomous later. I simply expanded a bit on what customers can expect as the updates roll out.

Tesla’s CEO presented the robotaxi status at Tesla’s Autonomy Day.

I mean, had it just been a couple of tweets (ignoring the fact that Elon informs Tesla customers through them too), I might agree with you. But it was a company presentation for a shipping hardware feature. That is selling in my books and your decision to narrowly focus on just the website seems absurd.

That said, where is Enhanced Summon that is also sold on the website as current feature? Really...

Tesla has a pattern of not being truthful about these things. They could easily retract and change their wordings...

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla’s CEO presented the robotaxi status at Tesla’s Autonomy Day.

I mean, had it just been a couple of tweets (ignoring the fact that Elon informs Tesla customers through them too), I might agree with you. But it was a company presentation for a shipping hardware feature. That is selling in my books and your decision to narrowly focus on just the website seems absurd.

That said, where is Enhanced Summon that is also sold on the website as current feature? Really...

Tesla has a pattern of not being truthful about these things. They could easily retract and change their wordings...

The reason I focus so much on the order page on the website is because that is what a customer will see when they are in the process of buying a Tesla. The order page is literally what Tesla is selling. It's what a customer clicks on to buy. Certainly, what Elon says during a company presentation like Autonomy Day carries a lot of weight. Driverless robotaxis are a big part of Elon's Master Plan. But I would bet many customers bought a Tesla without ever watching the Autonomy Day presentation. They do see what is on the FSD order page when they decide to click buy or not.

So, I just think we need to make a distinction between a company's Master Plan which lays out future goals and future products and what the sales page actually tells customers who are buying a Tesla today.

In terms of Enhanced Summon, we are in agreement. I am on record as saying that the description of Summon on the order page is misleading and deceptive.

 

[mswlogo]

I bought EAP/FSD with car. Selling car with it (never had an ounce of functionality), ordered Model X.
Won't be buying FSD for X until I see strong evidence of something useful and stable.

NoA is joke. Won't risk using summon or Enhanced Summon.

Only thing I'll miss is using blinker to change lanes. But that's not worth $6K

On the model 3 the main reason I got FSD was for HW3.

I suspect Auto Steer, Crash Prevention, Blind Spot, Lane Assist, Auto High Beam, Auto Wipers will improve over time with HW3. Those ALL use Neural Nets to function.

My new X will have HW3.

So if you don't have HW3, DEFINITELY get FSD. Even if you don't care about Self Driving.