Help me decide if I buy FSD this weekend, or not! ONCE AND FOR ALL.

[jebinc]

I bought EAP/FSD with car. Selling car with it (never had an ounce of functionality), ordered Model X.
Won't be buying FSD for X until I see strong evidence of something useful and stable.

NoA is joke. Won't risk using summon or Enhanced Summon.

Only thing I'll miss is using blinker to change lanes. But that's not worth $6K

On the model 3 the main reason I got FSD was for HW3.

I suspect Auto Steer, Crash Prevention, Blind Spot, Lane Assist, Auto High Beam, Auto Wipers will improve over time with HW3. Those ALL use Neural Nets to function.

My new X will have HW3.

So if you don't have HW3, DEFINITELY get FSD. Even if you don't care about Self Driving.

And still no rear cross traffic alert (on any Tesla).

 

[mswlogo]

And still no rear cross traffic alert (on any Tesla).

I suspect/hope that eventually Tesla will come up with a solution for that. It might not be quite as good as dedicated radar based systems but I suspect they can get close. And they could also "emulate" what it thinks it sees on the screen (Person, Car, Dog) etc.

The Large screen for backup camera does help compared to competition.

 

[diplomat33]

I suspect/hope that eventually Tesla will come up with a solution for that. It might not be quite as good as dedicated radar based systems but I suspect they can get close. And they could also "emulate" what it thinks it sees on the screen (Person, Car, Dog) etc.

The Large screen for backup camera does help compared to competition.

I am sure Tesla could us implement some type of visual or auditory warning based on what the cameras see. For now, the only time you need rear cross traffic alerts is when backing out of a parking spot and I find the rear camera view satisfactory.

 

[jebinc]

I am sure Tesla could us implement some type of visual or auditory warning based on what the cameras see. For now, the only time you need rear cross traffic alerts is when backing out of a parking spot and I find the rear camera view satisfactory.

@diplomat33 - This is a good example of what we discussed in another thread yesterday... People have been asking for these basic safety aids, in mass, but nothing but the gimmicks get released (e.g., "Hungry" and "Lucky" modes); gimmicks which you said yesterday we get because "people asked for them" - and they (Tesla), in return, provided them. So, why don't they (Tesla) provide a Tesla version of RCTA, as many have asked for it (using your logic from yesterday as a guide)?

 

[diplomat33]

@diplomat33 - This is a good example of what we discussed in another thread yesterday... People have been asking for these basic safety aids, in mass, but nothing but the gimmicks get released (e.g., "Hungry" and "Lucky" modes); gimmicks which you said yesterday we get because "people asked for them" - and they (Tesla), in return, provided them. So, why don't they (Tesla) provide a Tesla version of RCTA, as many have asked for it (using your logic from yesterday as a guide)?

I don't know. Maybe Tesla is planning to do RCTA and just has not gotten around to it yet. Or maybe Tesla thinks they don't need to do RCTA because they think when they finish FSD, they will have something better. It's impossible to tell at this point. Maybe Tesla is so focused on FSD that they have not devoted any resources to doing RCTA.

 

[jebinc]

I don't know. Maybe Tesla is planning to do RCTA and just has not gotten around to it yet. Or maybe Tesla thinks they don't need to do RCTA because they think when they finish FSD, they will have something better. It's impossible to tell at this point. Maybe Tesla is so focused on FSD that they have not devoted any resources to doing RCTA.

But they can devote resources to "Hungry" and "Lucky" modes? I guess we will never know. Time will tell if their approach will be successful, especially once the competition starts offering alternatives (at some point).

 

[diplomat33]

But they can devote resources to "Hungry" and "Lucky" modes? I guess we will never know. Time will tell if their approach will be successful, especially once the competition starts offering alternatives (at some point).

Well the team that did "hungry" and "lucky" mode are not the same teams that would be working on RCTA. All these "silly" features are done by different teams that are not involved in AP development.

 

[jebinc]

Well the team that did "hungry" and "lucky" mode are not the same teams that would be working on RCTA. All these "silly" features are done by different teams that are not involved in AP development.

Speculation, or do you know this first hand? I have no idea, which is why I ask.

 

[diplomat33]

Speculation, or do you know this first hand? I have no idea, which is why I ask.

Speculation but well founded I think. Something "hungry" mode or the games is a different kind of programming than what the AP team is doing. it requires a different programming skill. So it would not make sense to have an AP engineer do it.

 

[boonedocks]

The reason I focus so much on the order page on the website is because that is what a customer will see when they are in the process of buying a Tesla. The order page is literally what Tesla is selling. It's what a customer clicks on to buy. Certainly, what Elon says during a company presentation like Autonomy Day carries a lot of weight. Driverless robotaxis are a big part of Elon's Master Plan. But I would bet many customers bought a Tesla without ever watching the Autonomy Day presentation. They do see what is on the FSD order page when they decide to click buy or not.

So, I just think we need to make a distinction between a company's Master Plan which lays out future goals and future products and what the sales page actually tells customers who are buying a Tesla today.

In terms of Enhanced Summon, we are in agreement. I am on record as saying that the description of Summon on the order page is misleading and deceptive.

Couldn’t agree more....
AND this is exactly what they see. Not coming....not future....not hopefully...but what they are buying. This kind of advertising is what causes people to question Tesla / Elon

 

[diplomat33]

Couldn’t agree more....
AND this is exactly what they see. Not coming....not future....not hopefully...but what they are buying. This kind of advertising is what causes people to question Tesla / Elon

View attachment 450469

You are beating a dead horse. We all agree that the Summon description on the order page is misleading. I am not talking about that! The conversation was about driverless robotaxis, not enhanced summon! I made the point that Tesla is NOT selling driverless robotaxis by next year on the FSD order page. I was not talking about Enhanced Summon.

 

[boonedocks]

You are beating a dead horse. We all agree that the Summon description on the order page is misleading. I am not talking about that! The conversation was about driverless robotaxis, not enhanced summon! I made the point that Tesla is NOT selling driverless robotaxis by next year on the FSD order page. I was not talking about Enhanced Summon.

The real point is you can’t focus on the order page that a buyer sees since it’s suspect at best to begin with. People hear / see / read what Elon says and he he truly made a mess out of reality where capabilities and features are concerned.

You can’t say “I only focus on the order page” when it’s not reality in any way either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[diplomat33]

The real point is you can’t focus on the order page that a buyer sees since it’s suspect at best to begin with. People hear / see / read what Elon says and he he truly made a mess out of reality where capabilities and features are concerned.

You can’t say “I only focus on the order page” when it’s not reality in any way either ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I just think the order page should be given a higher weight than other things.

 

[electronblue]

You are beating a dead horse. We all agree that the Summon description on the order page is misleading.

Well... not everybody, it seems.

Are we talking about the same company?

Maybe English is your second language? Because the word "will" denotes future tense, not present.

 

[electronblue]

I just think the order page should be given a higher weight than other things.

The problem with that interpretation is that the order page is very limited. For example it promises automated city driving later this year. What does that mean? Well the meaning comes from Tesla’s other announcements that talk of at least internally being Level 5 no geofence feature complete within that timeframe (this year)...

So what Tesla says matters in understanding what the website is saying, assuming Tesla is being truthful.

 

[diplomat33]

The problem with that interpretation is that the order page is very limited. For example it promises automated city driving later this year. What does that mean? Well the meaning comes from Tesla’s other announcements that talk of at least internally being Level 5 no geofence feature complete within that timeframe (this year)...

So what Tesla says matters in understanding what the website is saying, assuming Tesla is being truthful.

I guess what I am saying is don't ignore or minimize either that the website clearly states that the current features are NOT autonomous and will only become autonomous when they pass reliability/validation/regulatory approval. If you only look at Autonomy Day and Elon's ambitious timeline of driverless robotaxis by end of this next year, you are only getting half the picture of what Tesla is saying about FSD.

 

[electronblue]

I guess what I am saying is don't ignore or minimize either that the website clearly states that the current features are NOT autonomous and will only become autonomous when they pass reliability/validation/regulatory approval. If you only look at Autonomy Day and Elon's ambitious timeline of driverless robotaxis by end of this next year, you are only getting half the picture of what Tesla is saying about FSD.

None of what Tesla says on the website is incompatible with Tesla being Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of this year.

None of it — or indeed what you say in the quote — is incompatible with Tesla having Level 5 robotaxis in some limited U.S. jurisdictions next year as said on Autonomy Day. The Design Studio disclaimers would just mean the roll-out is gradual, as stated on Autonomy Day anyway.

Your interpretation however IS incompatible with Tesla’s claims on Autonomy Day.

That said I agree Tesla says whatever is convenient for them in different channels and lacks consistency and history that would make their claims believable. So it is possible Tesla lies. Next year will be telling.

I think it is possible — likely even — neither the website nor Autonomy Day are correct at all on FSD.

 

[diplomat33]

None of what Tesla says on the website is incompatible with Tesla being Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of this year.

It depends. Are the FSD features on the website (NOA + Auto Park + Enhanced Summon + traffic light/stop signs + automatic city driving) equivalent to "L5 no geofence feature complete"?

Your interpretation however IS incompatible with Tesla’s claims on Autonomy Day.

The only thing I said that is incompatible with Autonomy Day is that I inserted my personal prediction that I think Tesla will miss their robotaxi deadline. But everything else I wrote was merely a paraphrase of the website disclaimer.

I think it is possible — likely even — neither the website nor Autonomy Day are correct at all on FSD.

Of course, that is entirely possible if Tesla misses their deadlines.

 

[electronblue]

None of what Tesla says on the website is incompatible with Tesla being Level 5 no geofence feature complete by end of this year.

It depends. Are the FSD features on the website (NOA + Auto Park + Enhanced Summon + traffic light/stop signs + automatic city driving) equivalent to "L5 no geofence feature complete"?

Nope, none of it depends on that because Tesla has never said they will release Level 5 no geofence this year, just that they will be feature complete. As a buyer that fits with Automatic city driving being released this year with supervision and then Level 5 no geofence operational somewhere (aka driverless) next year and expanding from there... that is what Tesla has said will happen.

It all fits. The question is: Is it true?

The only thing I said that is incompatible with Autonomy Day is that I inserted my personal prediction that I think Tesla will miss their robotaxi deadline. But everything else I wrote was merely a paraphrase of the website disclaimer.

Of course, that is entirely possible if Tesla misses their deadlines.

I think darkest question mark thing here isn’t will Tesla miss their deadlines, but was Tesla being truthful when they published those deadlines in the first place — aka did they lie about their status and trajectory.

 

[totteraptor]

I bought it and have regretted it. I was lured by the hype. Wait until it is REAL (which I suspect is going to be a loong wait).