Help me overanalyze - new or CPO?

[Drewsd]

I am considering a Model S, and trying to decide between CPO and new. The most important feature I need is the rear facing seats. After that, my wife will veto black paint and black interior, so I need those upgrades. Sunroof or glass roof is preferred, but not essential. Everything else (sound package, autopilot, wheels, subzero, etc) is not important to me right now. 60kWh RWD is completely sufficient for us.

When pricing it out new, I get $77k, which comes down to $66k after rebates and referral credit.

When looking at CPO, it looks like I can get a 2013 or 2014 with tech package that matches for ~$54k. (Seems like roughly the same final price if I consider retrofitting one without the rear facing seats.)

If it were completely apples to apples, then the $12k is real money I'd rather save. But, my question for this crowd is, what great feature would be missing from the CPO that might push me toward buying new?

For context, we tend to keep cars a long time -- currently driving a 14 year old Subaru and a 15 year old Lexus, both bought new. Not sure this one will last quite that long, but will likely drive either until the parts wear out.

Saw and read the recent similar threads (New or CPO? and HELP: CPO 85 or New 75D?) but would welcome any specific thoughts here!

 

[JamShady]

You'd be missing out on a whole host of upgrades that you might find beneficial over the long period you intend to keep the car. AP2 vs AP1/none, better battery tech, better air filtration, nicer seats, more solid build quality, etc.

I appreciate you said certain features aren't important right now, but consider what could change in the future, and also resale value.

If you can afford to do so, get a new one specced how you want it, rather than someone else's spec.

Also don't forget you'd need to order a new one by the end of the year to get free SuperCharging for life.

Not sure if it's good form either to offer a referral link for $1000 off, but mine is Referral | Tesla if that's ok

 

[Ormond]

The biggest change is the new autopilot hardware suite of cameras and CPU. Is it important to you?

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I would look at Inventory cars and see if you can find one with the rear facing seats. There might be a few. Check with your local Tesla Gallery. They can help you find the car for you. You might be able to snag a barebone S75 with rear seats for the price of a new custom S60. Note the new cars are much better than the old IMO. Check out my thread on them.
Comparison of old MS to the new
This thread is comparing the higher end cars against each other, but you should get a better feel for what it is. Also newer cars have AP2.0 hardware which you might find useful to activate later on when you get bored of your car and want it to have new features. Same goes for the capacity if you decide to upgrade to 75KWh later on from a 60KWh, though I would recommend not to because it's really not worth the additional miles.

 

[Andyw2100]

In addition to AP 2, a new 60 would actually be coming with a 75 battery limited to 60. Depending on the manufacture date of the CPO 60, that may not be the case.

 

[Tomasz]

When looking at CPO, it looks like I can get a 2013 or 2014 with tech package that matches for ~$54k. (Seems like roughly the same final price if I consider retrofitting one without the rear facing seats.)

Seems like way too much if you're willing to stay with lower battery. Check out that one:

60 kWh Model S 5YJSA1S14EFP32173 | Tesla

Also keep in mind - you can not retrofit rear facing seats, AFAIK they need some hardware installed that can be only done during body welding.

 

[Drucifer]

Way different criteria than I had. For me (about 20 months ago) it came down to either new 70 with very little options (tech/pano/leather...that's it) or a used P85 with every option, but lacking some newer features (parking sensors/folding mirrors/newer seats, AP 1.0)

Since I love options....the choice was pretty easy.

 

[CLLACAB]

Since you said that you keep cars a long time, it does not sound like the "latest and greatest" gadgets are all that important to you. With that said, save yourself a bunch of cash and let someone else take the depreciation hit. For between the $54K and $66K that you mentioned, you could probably get a loaded 85 for around $60K.

 

[Boourns]

For context, we tend to keep cars a long time -- currently driving a 14 year old Subaru and a 15 year old Lexus, both bought new. Not sure this one will last quite that long, but will likely drive either until the parts wear out.

Since others in this thread and the others you linked have given pretty good advice, I will just comment on this part. If you are concerned about warranty and keeping the car a long time, you may want to consider trying to find a private sale 2014-ish S60. The original owner of the car can buy the ESA and transfer it to you upon sale of the car. This will give you the remaining new factory warranty plus the 4 year/50k ESA, rather than just the 4/50 CPO warranty. You can of course buy a new S and get the ESA yourself, but going used will likely save you a bit of money.

 

[mbhforum]

I am going through this debate right now. I am going for my first test drive later this afternoon and had my eye on a 15 85D nicely loaded and only had 10k miles for $72,500 CPO. My other option was a new 60D that wasn't as loaded for around the same price. You have to keep in mind, buying new is really $8500 cheaper since you can also factor in $1,000 referral fee on top of the tax credit. I was all set to buy this CPO but didn't want to be impulsive and wanted to test drive first. Sure enough late last night, it came off the market, and there is nothing currently for CPO that meets my requirements and budget that make sense. I am going to continue to search for a 85D CPO for the next couple of months, but if I don't see anything pop up, I will probably end up buying the new 60D which at least gives me AP 2.0. I am hoping when I go for my test drive in a couple of hours, they have some other options for me. I want to keep the budget around 70k and want low mileage (less than 15k) if I go CPO. One advantage of going CPO is I will finance less (and pay less interest) and won't have to depend on the tax credit.

 

[Tomasz]

I am going through this debate right now. I am going for my first test drive later this afternoon and had my eye on a 15 85D nicely loaded and only had 10k miles for $72,500 CPO. My other option was a new 60D that wasn't as loaded for around the same price. You have to keep in mind, buying new is really $8500 cheaper since you can also factor in $1,000 referral fee on top of the tax credit. I was all set to buy this CPO but didn't want to be impulsive and wanted to test drive first. Sure enough late last night, it came off the market, and there is nothing currently for CPO that meets my requirements and budget that make sense. I am going to continue to search for a 85D CPO for the next couple of months, but if I don't see anything pop up, I will probably end up buying the new 60D which at least gives me AP 2.0. I am hoping when I go for my test drive in a couple of hours, they have some other options for me. I want to keep the budget around 70k and want low mileage (less than 15k) if I go CPO. One advantage of going CPO is I will finance less (and pay less interest) and won't have to depend on the tax credit.

One other thing to mention - even if you think you do not need bigger battery than 60 - consider getting bigger one for two reasons:
1. Degradation - when your 60D looses 10% in few years you're looking at 190mile car (~150 real life travel, maybe down to 120 in cold weather/strong wind), when your S85 looses that 10% you are in 150-190 real life ranges - that might make a difference between making next supercharger or not. Also one thing that people seldom mention - degradation also depends on battery cycles (how many times it has been fully charged and discharged). With lithium batteries the cycle can be directly related to amount of kWh charged and discharged (e.g. one full charge and full discharge counts as one cycle, two charges from 25% to 75% and discharges back to 25% also count as one cycle). Bottom line - after driving for 100k miles your 60 battery pack will have about - 410 cycles on it while your 85 battery pack will have only about 350 cycles.

2. Travel time - considering the charging taper - if you were to travel 1000 miles and stop at 9 superchargers spaced every 100 miles, you're going to save substantial amount of time by being able to keep your charge level just enough to make the next one and take advantage of faster charging. For example trip from Seattle, WA to Chicago , IL in S60 will require over 13h16m of time spent charging, while the same trip in S85 will need only 8h54min of charging time (see evtripplanner.com for details). That's a substantial difference.

In my case it came down to the same dilemma - buy 'new but naked' 60D or 'somewhat loaded CPO' S85 and, after analyzing travel times on several trips I take, buying anything less than 85 didn't make any sense.

 

[carter_seattle]

You have to keep in mind, buying new is really $8500 cheaper since you can also factor in $1,000 referral fee on top of the tax credit.

I think this is thinking gets people in trouble. I can't count the number of threads I see where people lose their minds at the trade-in offers they get from Tesla for their once-new cars. If you're comparing new to CPO, you need to factor-in the depreciation that your new Tesla is going to experience in the first year. It's less than other luxury cars, but it's still pretty steep.

You seem pretty value conscious and don't seem to care about features. Seems like a CPO is a no brainer.

 

[Watts Son]

I'll help overanalyze-the CPO car will depreciate a bit, the new one more but you get the $8500 thing mentioned above. The new one has all the latest features and you'll know it's entire life history but that may not be as important and just getting into a Tesla at the lowest possible price point. Newer car PROBABLY pushes any non warranty issues you may have farther down the line. As mentioned above, the AP 2.0 is really the possible game changer of features and if you keep your cars for a long time then you can amortize the cost of a newer car over all those years and also be a little more "future proof" ....and that smell...tough call

 

[Drewsd]

Thanks all for the great perspectives. Though the poll itself isn't turning out to be very helpful for making a decision...

I think this is thinking gets people in trouble. I can't count the number of threads I see where people lose their minds at the trade-in offers they get from Tesla for their once-new cars. If you're comparing new to CPO, you need to factor-in the depreciation that your new Tesla is going to experience in the first year. It's less than other luxury cars, but it's still pretty steep.

@carter_seattle, can I ask you to spell this out for me? I have been thinking about the rebates + referrals as free money, or as someone else significantly subsidizing the steep depreciation. And I get (I think) that past new owners have found their trade-in value to be surprisingly low. But not quite following how all of this is factoring in.

 

[Drewsd]

Seems like way too much if you're willing to stay with lower battery. Check out that one:

60 kWh Model S 5YJSA1S14EFP32173 | Tesla

Also keep in mind - you can not retrofit rear facing seats, AFAIK they need some hardware installed that can be only done during body welding.

Regarding that car in particular, I was factoring in the $2k transportation fee which would bring the total to $53k. But your general point reminded me to check the historical data at ev-cpo, which shows that there were some 60s with rear seats that went for less than $40k (albeit with 50k+ miles) in the last year, and several more in the $40k-$50k range. Good point, thanks...

Also, FYI I talked with the CPO adviser for my region who said rear facing seats can be added for $4k parts + $175/hr labor (est 4-5 hrs labor).

 

[Andyw2100]

If you are planning on keeping the car for a long time, the first year depreciation is less of an issue.

Additionally, purchasing new would allow you to purchase the extended warranty, which would give you eight years / 100,000 miles of warranty coverage.

But really I think one of the main reasons to purchase new would be to get the AP 2 features. Though Elon Musk has stated tat Tesla will continue improving auto pilot for the AP 1 cars, in reality I expect the really cool improvements will be made for the AP 2 cars. I fear if you go with an AP 1 car now, you may really wind up kicking yourself down the road.

 

[Havok1327]

@Drewsd I'm still going through this same debate. I got some great information from the thread I started. So it seems we both are getting a lot to think about.

I actually put together a spread sheet with pricing and depreciation information with a cost of ownership over 2 years, I'm planning on trading the car in on a Model 3. I'm not 100% sure of my depreciation numbers. I've pulled them from a few resources and then looked at current prices of existing cars. Then added a few more percentage points just for safe measure. What the numbers seem to show is two different scenario's. You can either get a well equipped 2014/2015 for about the same price as a new base model. So if features matter to you CPO is the way to go, if you want the latest features that come the a base model car autopilot V2 and such, new is what your after. I'm leaning toward the CPO myself. Just need to find that right car.

 

[carter_seattle]

First, let's set aside AP2 stuff. The OP has stated that he doesn't care about AP1 (or most other options) so it's hard to imagine he'd care deeply about AP2. Plus, let's be honest, by the time AP2 capabilities are actually useful/proven/legal, the first batch of AP2 cars will be coming up as CPOs. I'll make my biases clear: I purchased a CPO 85D (don't have it yet) and plan on essentially trading it in every 3 years for another, more current CPO. I'm fine to be one revision behind the curve.

Regarding cost, let's agree that:

Cost = Price + Financing - Value at sale = Financing + Depreciation.

So, what is depreciation anyway? Let's look at a brand-new Tesla that retails at $80k. After tax incentives and referral bonus, you pay $71,500. But remember, everyone (almost) is also paying $71,500 for that new car. So the effective price of the car is $71,500. And that is where the depreciation clocks starts, not at the retail price. You see this spelled out explicitly when Tesla values your trade-in. They take $7500 right off the top.

So, what does it cost to own a new car for 3 years vs. a CPO for 3 years?

New = $Price * 30% - $2550

CPO = $Price * 22%

I built a spreadsheet to cover this in more detail:

Tesla New vs. CPO

 

[Drucifer]

So, what does it cost to own a new car for 3 years vs. a CPO for 3 years?

New = $Price * 30% - $2550

CPO = $Price * 22%

I built a spreadsheet to cover this in more detail:

Tesla New vs. CPO

and THAT'S why in 2020-2021ish I am trading in my 2013 CPO Model S for a 2017-2018 CPO Model S. Eating $800-1000 a month in depreciation is about my limit.

 

[Watts Son]

Once tax credits go away and IF free supercharging for life stays for life of car I think you will also have another microeconomic model to think about....but I like and agree with your spreadsheet. The tech increasing so fast could also slide the depreciation further the other way..safest from a money standpoint will always be to buy used and sell when you feel the CPO tech is something worth trading up to....Others, like the man to my left, say,"life is short, get and enjoy the latest and greatest". These people keep Elon happy !