Highest production VIN in the wild

[insaneoctane]

Vin 516 at Palo Alto Tesla. • r/teslamotors

VIN 516

Funny comment in that Reddit post :

"I'm not a Model 3 guy. I don't want one. I don't have a reservation. I'm also not into white cars.

Then one of you nutjobs posts a picture of a white Mode 3 and I have to rethink my whole world view"

As for this thread, it really is just here to help us recognize the ramp. The ramp is not here yet (hear the crickets?) These "bottlenecks" suck, but they are just part of the production hell that EM often speaks. Let's not use this thread to bitch about how slow things are and how wrong predictions were, but rather to share VINs and watch for the ramp.

 

[voip-ninja]

That's a lot "I heard this" and "so and so said that".

So when Oppenheimer named their analysts who met with Tesla and was told it's supplier problems they are liars? You don't think Oppenheimer gets access to better info than you've got? That would be a really egotistical position to take.

Tesla has a market cap of almost 60B. Compare that with GM, who has a market cap of 66B but is actually shipping their electric cars when they said they would.

Oppenheimer has a duty to their investors to find out what is going on at TSLA especially with TSLA being so very highly valued.

I don't think anyone doesn't think Tesla will solve the problems. There's a big difference though between starting volume shipping in Q4 2017, Q1 2018 or even Q2 2018 and that difference absolutely can translate into stock price changing.

Saying "you'll get your car when you get it" might technically be true, but at some point Tesla needs to be forthcoming with where things are. If not to their customers who have preordered then to stockholders who have huge financial stakes in the company.

We aren't at the "Breaking point" yet... that will be in Q1 2018 if deliveries haven't started in volume. Remember, car was in production in July of this year, or at least so we were told.

 

[Zaphod]

It says November - January. If the ramp up was on time, yes, I would definitely get it, because that's how the math works out. if they really got to 20,000 in December, plus the cars leading up to that, it would be about 40k this year. That would easily cover everyone that wants the first build configuration that stood in line in the US and employees and current owners.

Are you an employee? Seems like pretty early delivery for East coast non-owner.

Also I believe it was stated that 5,000/week built rate was goal by the end of December which will not equate to 20,000 units in December. Cars produced also do not equal deliveries.

 

[3Victoria]

EM told us that the beginning of the S curve was unpredictable. Despite that he made some guesses at run rate. Obviously glitches have occurred. It is only because Tesla is micro-watched that we are even aware of this. I suggest a short hibernation for the most anxious. When you awake, all will be well.

VIN 2136 gets a positive result on the NHSTA website. I surmise that Tesla is submitting VINs in batches of 1000, as they take orders. I take that as a sign that they are running out of the first batch of 1000. If the NHSTA shows VIN accumulation in an increasing cadence, then that would be a very good sign.

 

[dennis]

So when Oppenheimer named their analysts who met with Tesla and was told it's supplier problems they are liars? You don't think Oppenheimer gets access to better info than you've got? That would be a really egotistical position to take.

Tesla has a market cap of almost 60B. Compare that with GM, who has a market cap of 66B but is actually shipping their electric cars when they said they would.

Oppenheimer has a duty to their investors to find out what is going on at TSLA especially with TSLA being so very highly valued.

I don't think anyone doesn't think Tesla will solve the problems. There's a big difference though between starting volume shipping in Q4 2017, Q1 2018 or even Q2 2018 and that difference absolutely can translate into stock price changing.

Saying "you'll get your car when you get it" might technically be true, but at some point Tesla needs to be forthcoming with where things are. If not to their customers who have preordered then to stockholders who have huge financial stakes in the company.

We aren't at the "Breaking point" yet... that will be in Q1 2018 if deliveries haven't started in volume. Remember, car was in production in July of this year, or at least so we were told.

GM, who started delivering their electric vehicle on time has ramped up over the past 10 months to approximately 500/week. Tesla plans to be at 5000/week 10 months after their first delivery. Just an order of magnitude more difficult.

 

[teddyg]

VIN 2136 gets a positive result on the NHSTA website. I surmise that Tesla is submitting VINs in batches of 1000, as they take orders. I take that as a sign that they are running out of the first batch of 1000. If the NHSTA shows VIN accumulation in an increasing cadence, then that would be a very good sign.

Thanks 3Victoria...this is the type of discussion I was hoping for on this thread. I'm not trying to bash Tesla in any way. As a shareholder I just want to get as much data as I can. Realise this isn't a fool proof method but at least its something.
Thanks!

 

[mmd]

You keep pumping this all over like a SeekingAlpha poster. If you read the entire transcript of what he was saying during that conference call, he was talking about production rate. 5k/week is well over 200,000/year production rate, which is still the target for 2017. This has been discussed ad nauseum in the investor threads here and elsewhere and subsequent guidance by Tesla and Musk have clarified the situation.

Meanwhile, Autotrader shows nearly 3,200 new Chevy Bolt's sitting on dealer lots, or almost 5 week's worth.

Is there another way to read English? The 100k-200k M3 for 2H 2017 was stated as an absolute target, not production rate. Can you post a link/quote of the transcript you keep referring to? TIA.
Also note, that there has not been any correction issued for this quoted message. So, Elon didn't just misspeak. It was quite intentional.

Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017

He then provided a production target, which is way beyond what we’d expected to hear:
“So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”
Up to 200,000 Model 3 produced by the end of 2017! That figure seems unbelievable, but with Musk at the helm anything is possible.

Yeah, right! With the Ion man at the helm.. (I snipped my comment here to get fewer disagrees; i mean, dislikes).

And you guys keep bringing up Bolt into this as an excuse. GM never said, they are going to sell 500k Bolts a year from 2017 Their target was modest 30k/year, IIRC. They are doing just fine on their targets. I guess, GM doesn't need to pump up the stock price with absurd claims.

 

[powertoold]

That's from almost 1.5 years ago, and there's nothing "absolute" about it. Elon clearly prefaced that estimate by saying he has no clue but would rather aim aggressive. There are more updated estimates.

 

[Garlan Garner]

That's from almost 1.5 years ago, and there's nothing "absolute" about it. Elon clearly prefaced that estimate by saying he has no clue but would rather aim aggressive. There are more updated estimates.

link for preface?

 

[Subhuman]

VIN 2136 gets a positive result on the NHSTA website. I surmise that Tesla is submitting VINs in batches of 1000, as they take orders. I take that as a sign that they are running out of the first batch of 1000. If the NHSTA shows VIN accumulation in an increasing cadence, then that would be a very good sign

Anyone know when the original batch showed up? We can start building a table of when vin numbers are increased and the duration of time between the increase. Should be able determine a rate of increase if they stick to 1000 batch numbers.

 

[voip-ninja]

GM, who started delivering their electric vehicle on time has ramped up over the past 10 months to approximately 500/week. Tesla plans to be at 5000/week 10 months after their first delivery. Just an order of magnitude more difficult.

Tesla also said they were going to deliver 100K-200K cars this year. They've delivered a few hundred.

They can say whatever they want. They also have to deliver on what they state or they deserve the criticism they are getting.

 

[JeffK]

Tesla also said they were going to deliver 100K-200K cars this year. They've delivered a few hundred.

They can say whatever they want. They also have to deliver on what they state or they deserve the criticism they are getting.

To be fair that was an optimistic expectation from Elon a year ago:

“So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”

A lot can happen in a year. Plus, there's always the disclaimer:

During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You have to interpret that in the sentence. That 100k-200k was an absolute target, not production rate at some point in time in 2017, however small that point may be. Surely we can hold Elon's feet to fire (as he said at that time about others) for 100k M3s?


cars.com shows 4646 Bolts in whole US. Bolt US sales: July 1971, August 2107, Sept : 2632. Your math must be weak to claim a 90 day supply from these data points.

But here is the funny part. Selling from inventory IS GM's business. Adjusting factory output is also nothing new for automakesr. They do it openly, vs. Tesla's secretive/excused factory shutdowns.
OTOH, Tesla's S&X inventory, which is supposed not to exist because it is a custom ordered car with customers waiting in lines, exceeds the ratio you are trying to paint as poor demand. No, I'm not talking about the visible inventory, but the real inventory against which Tesla borrows money on its LOC.

Besides, GM never made any claims about absurdly high demand for Bolt. So, I am not getting your point, what you are trying to say here.
Call me when Tesla has actually SOLD (not just talked about) 30k Model 3s in the US.

Excellent points.

 

[teddyg]

I think the most recent target from the Q2 conference call was a run rate of 5,000 per week Model 3 by the end of the year.
What I am trying to figure out (with VIN numbers, etc) is how far away they are from that. Looks like pretty damn far right now. Maybe only 250 per week at this point.
We will see if Musk updates on the 5,000 per week by the end of 2017 target in the Q3 call in less than two weeks. I'm sure someone will ask that question.
Not sure why people are arguing about 100-200k targets for 2017 made two years ago. That was looking into a crystal ball back then. My focus is on the most recently stated 5,000 per week target and if they can't do it by the end of the year, can they even get there by end of Q1?

 

[mmd]

I think the most recent target from the Q2 conference call was a run rate of 5,000 per week Model 3 by the end of the year.
What I am trying to figure out (with VIN numbers, etc) is how far away they are from that. Looks like pretty damn far right now. Maybe only 250 per week at this point.
We will see if Musk updates on the 5,000 per week by the end of 2017 target in the Q3 call in less than two weeks. I'm sure someone will ask that question.
Not sure why people are arguing about 100-200k targets for 2017 made two years ago. That was looking into a crystal ball back then. My focus is on the most recently stated 5,000 per week target and if they can't do it by the end of the year, can they even get there by end of Q1?

The argument is really about what was said. @techmaven claimed, what was said was the run-rate. I was merely correcting it; that it was really the total produced that Elon talked about. So, yeah, I'm not sure why others are arguing about this. It's crystal clear from the quote that it was the total.

But are you suggesting that it is okay to say anything, as long as a new thing is said after one and half years? Why don't I tell you then, that I'll be the emperor of USA come next year, and you deposit $10k with me to get double returns by next year? Next year, I 'll figure out what to say then.

Going back to 5k/week: I'd say, not far. All it takes is 5 cars to reach the finish line in 10 mins. That means, a factory running 24/7 will produce 5k/week. Bingo, done! QED. Bonus time.
But if you are really expecting to see 5000 cars produced in any week in Dec, then that's an entirely different story.

 

[smartypnz]

I read somewhere on the Internet that the 'slowdown' is due to problems getting the black color just right.

 

[McHoffa]

Are you an employee? Seems like pretty early delivery for East coast non-owner.

Also I believe it was stated that 5,000/week built rate was goal by the end of December which will not equate to 20,000 units in December. Cars produced also do not equal deliveries.

Non employee, not current owner, but about #20 in line to reserve at Charlotte NC location.

As far as I know, everyone that stood in line and is a non owner got that date range.

 

[S3XY]

Are you an employee? Seems like pretty early delivery for East coast non-owner.

Also I believe it was stated that 5,000/week built rate was goal by the end of December which will not equate to 20,000 units in December. Cars produced also do not equal deliveries.

I'm not an employee or owner and have the same delivery estimate. Nov - Jan. This is why I stood in line.

 

[Railhawk52]

Same for me. #40 in line at the Raleigh NC store and that’s the date range I have too.

 

[Matias]

There is nothing you can do to make this process go faster.

What about pressing F5 repeatedly?