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I have range anxiety turning into range fear

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by igor, Feb 12, 2013.

  1. igor

    igor Member

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    All the reading I have done makes me feel that the 300 miles of range should really be 200 miles (even less...177 according to some posts) . At this point I would not be able to make the 220 mile trip to Orlando or Key West without some great anxiety. I, like most people, enjoy driving faster than the speed limit. Why not with the car made for speed and comfort? However, going 80 mph will reduce my range quickly. No superchargers here yet.

    Secondly, after two to three years this range will worsen as the battery degrades. Im sure that there will be chargers and superchargers in the future. This 2.5 hour trip can become well over that if I have to stop. In three to four years, I would have to stop twice. This 2.5 hour trip may take 5 hours or more.

    The bottom line is......how is the company going to fare when range "anxiety" becomes rage "fear". Will people not buy this car because of this fear?
    What will happen if the company goes bankrupt? The 8 year warranty extinct? Who will provide for system upgrades, new parts, potentially new batteries?

    I have to configure in 1 week and I am getting cold feet. I fell in love with the car. My feeling is the P85KW is the only way to go . Am I spending too much money on a product that may become extinct?

    Please correct me if anything I have said is wrong.
     
  2. ElSupreme

    ElSupreme Model S 03182

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    #2 ElSupreme, Feb 12, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
    Well going to Orlando or Key West really is almost an ideal route for distance. Virtually no elevation gain/loss. Always warm/hot. And plenty of cars to draft. I easily went 220 miles in the North Georgia Mountains the weekend after I got my car. Temperatures were 35-40F. And I had 35 miles spare when I got home, after blasting the last 60miles at 85 on the interstate when not bunched in traffic. I CC at 65 all the way up there, drove up and down the mountains at ~45mph. So not babying the car, but not hotrodding either. I have more elevation gain/loss within 1 mile of my house than you will have for the whole trip.

    If you are really worried I would just plan on a stop for lunch/break and charge for 45 minutes. But I honestly don't think Orlando or Key West from FtL to be a big deal for a 85kWh car. If you want to drive 70 you could probably make it. I would do the first round trip at 65mph, then slowly bump up your speeds as you get more comfortable with the car's range.

    And I don't think finding a NEMA 14-50 would be hard at all on most of the keys you would be driving on. Or anywhere else in FL for that matter. I have never specifically looked, but I can't imagine they are hard to find. I seem to recall RV parks being copious pretty much everywhere in FL, and definitely on the populated keys.

    EDITED FOR NOT READING THE ROUTE CORRECTLY AT FIRST. I posted then thought "Orlando to Key West is like a 6+ hour drive. How could it only be 220 miles." Whoops. Only wording changes, no substance changes.
     
  3. FlasherZ

    FlasherZ Sig Model S + Sig Model X + Model 3 Resv

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    Regardless of whether you are driving an ICE or a Model S, you are abiding by the laws of physics and you must take them into account, and keep in mind the available distribution network for fueling your vehicle.

    Do 80 mph regularly in an ICE, you'll be stopping at a gas station nearly ~20% sooner (or even more often) than if you followed the speed limit.
    Do 80 mph regularly in a Model S, you'll be stopping at SuperChargers more often than if you followed the speed limit.(*)

    (*)When they become available more widely.

    Until the (*) is satisfied, you will have to understand you're an early adopter, and that the infrastructure is being built out over the next few years. This means you adjust the way you drive to make sure you will make it, then open it up for some fun. As Roadster owners have said on this forum numerous times, you should drive conservatively until you know you're going to make it. Know where the charging options are to you.

    In the future, we will have a world where DC quick charging stations are nearly just as commonplace as gasoline fueling stations, and you'll have your choice of driving like an maniac and stopping every 100 miles, or regulating your driving and stopping every 200 miles -- just like today's ICE cars.

    With my P85 car, I have done a round trip to Springfield, IL from me - a 210 mile round trip - without charging, at reasonable highway speeds (but not greater than 70 mph). Yes, the car begs to be driven at 100 mph, but the speeding tickets and range burn at that speed will get me every time.
     
  4. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    Unless your winters in Florida are colder than mine in Minnesota, you have little to worry about.
    However, if you drive at extreme speeds, that will also cut into range. You may want to review the speed vs range graph Tesla published. You can also look at how different temperatures, night vs day, and other factors will affect the range.

    Battery degradation for Roadster owners has been about 1.75% per 10,000 miles. Please note, this is a limited sample size of about 17 or so. Personally, we had about a 3% degradation in our Roadster over 27 months and 27,000 miles.

    I would suggest taking a look at your actual driving needs and how important driving a vehicle that drives like a dog at 80, and an incredibly sublime driving experience at 65 (at least on your 220 mile trips, go as fast as you want on shorter trips).
     
  5. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    Tesla has updated the range page. Pretty cool simulator, but it does not show speeds above 65mph. Your Questions Answered | Tesla Motors

    With performance 85 at 65mph with AC running and windows cracked it shows 225 miles range. 19" wheels will give you a few percent more.

    Key west trip should not be a problem since you really cant drive that fast on the highway (that I'm aware of...its been 10 years since I've driven it and I was on vacation, so not driving particularly fast) and it is a shorter trip. The trip to Orlando on the other hand will be an issue for you. The turnpike is quite fast, and unless they install a supercharger you will have to slow down. But by slowing down and not charging you will get there faster than driving fast and charging, so it seems driving the posted limit for this trip is really the only solution. It is just outside the range of the car if you want to drive fast. It is definitely something you will need to consider.
     
  6. wstuff

    wstuff Junior Member

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    IGOR, if you have concerns of range and don't want to follow the protocols don't buy the car, I live in Florida and would take any of your trips in a heartbeat, I plan to go from central Fl to the keys in March. You seem to have a lot of worries that have been covered by this forum. If you want to drive at 80 to 85 MPH don't expect the extended range this car offers over other EV's to suit your needs. My guess is your ICE car doesn't get the same MPG @ 85 that it gets when you drive @ 60 MPH. This is a remarkable vehicle for what it is, some people should just wait and buy an EV when it will do all the things they want it to do. I would not want you to be unhappy with your purchase but if you want an electric car to run @ 85 MPH and do a distance of over 300 miles it doesn't exist yet. I feel very confident that if the battery is treated and used properly it will not degrade in 2 to 3 years to the point I would notice it. Best of luck with your decision . There may be something called range fear, don't put gasoline in your ICE and I guess you will experience that. This vehicle is not everything to everyone, but taken for what it is ,is just fantastic.
     
  7. Owner

    Owner Active Member

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    I need the one that shows speeds above 65. I keep finding myself driving faster, it is so hard not to in this car!

    It is legal on I5, at least!
     
  8. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    yes, I agree they should build the calculator to at 75mph minimum. With a 70mph speed limit on I-5 most people are driving about 75mph.

    Nice reply wstuff. I fully agree with your statement.
     
  9. Jaff

    Jaff Active Member

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    Igor, I have driven the Ft. Lauderdale to Key West trip many (20+) times...you will not be going 80 mph beyond Key Largo...trust me...Key Largo is about 100 miles from Key West...to get there on U.S. #1, you'll be lucky to average 50 mph with all of the small towns you'll pass through...also, you'd better budget 2.5 hours to go from Key Largo...watch out going through Layton as there is always a police cruiser parked there....:wink:
     
  10. igor

    igor Member

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    Thank you for the candor regarding the range.
    Any insight on the strength of the company, future resale of the vehicle four or five years down the road?
     
  11. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    #11 ChadS, Feb 12, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
    Igor, I'm the guy pushing the 177-mile number, and perhaps I wasn't clear in my postings about it. The whole point of the 177-mile number is to REMOVE fear. You can drive in any weather you want, and you can speed, and still get there - without having to think about it or do any calculations or change your driving.

    If you are willing to do calculations and change your driving, 300 miles is entirely possible (I just don't recommend you try it without planning a charge stop, even though you might not have to use it) and I gave all the factors necessary for that in another long post. There is no reason to be afraid when you have the information you need. It requires some thinking at first, but after a while it becomes second nature. People were afraid of gas cars at first for the same reasons - their horse could stop and eat grass anywhere, or you could take an axe and cut down wood for a steam car anywhere, but you had to figure out where you could buy gas.

    My wife and I have been driving all-electric for years, and for my wife most of that was in a 90-mile range car. She never ran out, never looked for a charging station, never waited for a charge. It was by far the most convenient car she ever drove. There really is nothing to be afraid of. That said, she never tried to take a 150-mile trip at 80mph in that car. If driving beyond the capabilities of the car is something you plan to do, then the Model S is not for you. That's OK, no one car is for everybody, and they are not making enough Model S' for everybody. I'm not trying to talk you in to buying one; I just want to help you base your decision on the right reasons.

    On a 220-mile trip in Florida you will not have to stop twice in 3-4 years. You won't have more than 10% battery degradation by then, and one stop will be plenty for you to still go as fast as you like. If you slow down, you could still do it without stopping at all.

    As for the company going out of business; well, that's a definite possibility, but any company can go out of business. Most auto companies run on really thin margins. Heck, GM did recently, so I think you will face this risk no matter what car you buy. The Model S is a really nice (and just as important, unique) car and if something happens to Tesla I am pretty confident that another company will want to acquire the technology and customers.
     
  12. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    I'm not sure why the whole "You also have to refuel more often in an ICE if you drive fast too" thing keeps getting batted about. It's a weak argument. If I drive 75-80 I can still go a realistic 350 miles in any of my ICE cars. I rarely go beyond that, but even if I did, gas stations are all over and refueling takes 10 minutes (give or take).

    On the flip side, do the same in an S and you will get something like 180-200 miles, and even if you're lucky enough to find a super charger you'll be down for at least 45 minutes. I like what Tesla is trying to accomplish, and fully understand the limitations (even more so now than before), but we do no one favors by trying to spin things, so why not be blunt.

    As for the future of the company. I honestly have zero worries. If a company like Fisker can get hold of 1.2 billion and blow it with nothing more than a head turning design to show for it, surely Tesla and all their actual technology has to be worth a lot to someone. If Tesla can't make it on their own (which I think they have a fair shot of doing), then someone will almost certainly buy them out.
     
  13. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    #13 ChadS, Feb 12, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
    AnOutsider, yes gas cars go farther (well, some of them - Mitsu Evo can't, and most motorcycles can't, for example) and refuel faster. But that's not the point of the comparisons you are complaining about. It's not to say the EV can go exactly as far as a gas car without refueling. The point is that everybody knows that going fast affects gas MPG, and electric range is just MPGe time a constant (fuel capacity), so it should be obvious that going fast affects range as well. People raise that point when somebody complains about the car not getting 265 miles at 80mph.
     
  14. rcc

    rcc Model S 85KW, VIN #2236

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    #14 rcc, Feb 12, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
    I don't think that the 177 mile number is 100% correct. I bet the range could be lower in Canada in the winter, for example.

    But the overall thinking is correct: establish a minimum range given how you drive, the worst-case weather conditions given the season of the year and add a safety margin of your choice. That's your range. If you stay within the range, you don't have to think. Just drive. If you hit that range or go beyond, that's when you have to think and plan to ensure that your trip goes well.

    Use cruise control. Drive in range mode. Scout out chargers. Etc.

    For me, in my area, in the winter, the range is about 180 miles but that doesn't include a 20+ mile safety margin. As the temperature goes up (and defrost use goes down), I expect that range to climb to 200 miles and probably 220+.

    Forgot to add: if you're worried about range, drive SLOWER. Best way I know of to get a fair amount more range besides turn the defroster off is to drive at 60-65 mph instead of driving at 75+ mph. Using cruise control or range mode driving to decrease power usage when speeding up will also help.
     
  15. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    #15 ChadS, Feb 12, 2013
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2013
    Well, no number can be "100% correct" as a safe range unless it's unreasonably small. The 48mpg Prius got 18mpg when Car and Driver ran it flat out around a track, but I don't think telling Prius drivers that 18mpg is the fuel economy they can count on is useful. I tried to pick a number that would account for really bad weather or high but not felonious speeds. I think anybody that really wants to reach a location (they are not "testing" the car, or trying to fail) will be able to get 177 miles. Even in Canada in the winter - I think, though I don't drive there. (The exception might be a bunch of short trips so the car cools down every time; but I can't imagine anybody doing enough short trips spaced that far apart that totals 177 miles in a day. The 177 miles was for a road trip).

    I included a lot of data in my posts, and if you can suggest any changes to the numbers, I welcome them. (But it should be on those threads, thanks).
     
  16. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Fair enough -- though I still maintain that the ICE argument shouldn't be used as a comparison since there is less of an issue there.

    I haven't driven in sub zero weather, but I'd still say 170-180 is still a pretty good estimate even in the cold. As for cruise control, I only recommend it if you're on level terrain. Around here, there are so many hills that the CC becomes less efficient than you just looking ahead and adjusting your driving to match the terrain.
     
  17. FlasherZ

    FlasherZ Sig Model S + Sig Model X + Model 3 Resv

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    It's not a weak argument, it is absolutely true. I put it out there simply because there are complaints about the Model S not meeting its EPA range numbers, yet they don't think about how that type of driving affects their gasoline consumption. I had a Chevy Impala that got 20 mpg at average speeds with a 16 gallon tank. That's 320 miles. Drive it at 80 mph everywhere, you'll cut it to 250 miles. Sound pretty close? Thought so.
     
  18. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    How quickly do you think the battery's going to degrade? You could easily do the 220 now without stopping, but would have to watch the speed and heat/AC. While it's true this might become more difficult with battery degradation, with a single 30-45 minute supercharger stop you could drive almost any speed and make it even after several years of battery degradation.
     
  19. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Close to what? Once again, did it matter that you only got 250 miles? Were you able to easily and quickly refuel said Impala once you were empty? As I said: it's a bigger issue in the S because "running out" is a bigger deal than it would be with any other hybrid or pure gasoline vehicle. My point is that we should stop trying to hide that issue to save face on the S. It does no one any favors.
     
  20. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    I think the point is that EVs loose efficiency in the cold just as ICE cars do. Not that it is as easy/quick to fuel up.
    And by "just as" I should be clear I am not saying the efficiency loss is the same, just that both types of vehicles have a substantial loss of efficiency.
     

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