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If car companies can't invent a viable EV solution to compete, what happens to Elon's vison?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by weak_pig, Apr 8, 2016.

  1. igotzzoom

    igotzzoom Supporting Member

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    As many others on this thread have said, it's not so much that the legacy OEs aren't capable of building a competitive EV, it's just that they're so invested in the old model of ICE engines, quarterly profits, and status quo, that it's hard for them to make a wholesale shift overnight. Ultimately, whether or not they "like" EVs, they're not going to have a choice. The regulatory trajectory is clear -- ultimately the ICE is going to be legislated or regulated out of existence. I think some limited exceptions will be made for antique (i.e. 20 years or older) models, but in terms of new models coming from OEs, they're almost all going to be electrified in some form in the next 10 years, and I'd say by 2050, the majority of cars will be BEVs or PHEVs. I suspect PHEVs will be relatively short-lived as the charging infrastructure, time and battery capacities improve. At some point, ICEs, and the manufacturers committed to them will go into a death spiral unless they've already gotten far enough down the road with EV development.
     
  2. Bangor Bob

    Bangor Bob Member

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    They can, but they have to WANT to rather than feeling "governments are forcing us". As Tesla keeps eating into more and more of their high-profit vehicles, they will find themselves "wanting to" make an actual Tesla fighter.

    An affordable CUV and a pickup truck would really put the cat among the pigeons. We know the Model Y is coming, and Elon has mentioned a pickup truck a few times.

    I heard an interview last night with the Chief of Engineering for the new Cadillac XT5 CUV (the most recent Autoline After Hours), and the whole time I kept thinking... It starts at $38k. If the Model Y were available, why would I get this over a Model Y? It's from the stone age.
     
  3. Drivin

    Drivin Member

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    Misleading title. Some shareholders worried - they have tons of shareholders with over 5000 of them attending the annual meeting.

    Here is a much bigger problem for Daimler that has lead to the policy being called in:
    Sausage Spat Erupts as Daimler Shareholders Battle at Buffet

    13% increase in sales, increase in dividends and lots of food. Yeah, times are tough over there.
     
  4. Daliman

    Daliman Member

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    I don't think Elon's master plan was ever to become GM, he wanted to overcome the prejudices that the public has about electric cars. By showing that an electric car can be fast, comfortable, sexy, and now practical for the average person Tesla is beating back 100 years of habit and the attitudes reinforced by the companies that have an economic stake it IC technology. The publicity surrounding Tesla is massive step, showing my friends videos of an S in insane mode had caused more interest in the people I know than anything else. When a large enough number of electrics are on the road that it is a common experience to ride in one I think the balance will begin to shift more dramatically.

    I don't think that the major auto makers will have made the investments needed to develop their own credible electrics at that point. What I hope and expect will happen if that they will develop cars to place on the Tesla body or at least use the drive train and charging system. I don't expect that gas stations are going to become rare for many years, I do expect that they will begin to instal chargers as an option as soon as the number of electrics gets over 500000. SInce the electric grid is everywhere and the infrastructure providing for servicing hungry families is linked to it the benefits for this industry of also providing charging will likely be too great to ignore.
     
  5. Drivin

    Drivin Member

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    from the article:
    Ok, now that is funny!
    Yeah, Daimler, BMW, Toyota, etc really need to skip those "difficult" parts since they never have been able to build cars that had a drivetrain or parts that needed to be electronically controlled. Yeah, that makes total sense.

    The "difficult" thing that is hard to reproduce is not in engineering. It is the decision to go all in, to build out the supercharger network. That was the hard part.
     
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  6. shrspeedblade

    shrspeedblade Rideshare Monkey

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    To think plug in hybrids aren't the transitional tool reflects the opinions/preferences of the average member of this forum, not the public in general. Don't think I'm trying to start a plug in hybrids are more flexible and better debate. No, I'm not. They are not- they are a compromise but sometimes compromises aren't a bad thing. The majority of the public will have to experience the advantages of electricity either through close association or ownership before diving head first into the BEV pool. It will probably take a generational shift as well because 20 year olds will adopt BEVs far more quickly that 60 year olds merely because they have a far lower attachment to fossil fuels.

    It was owning my 2nd gen Volt that confirmed to me that I wanted to put the deposit down on the Model 3. However, you could take away 90% of the gas stations in America and it would still be easier for me to find a place to fill up than it is to find a charger right now. Keep in mind I have nearly a 200 mile range on half a tank a gas- it's going to take a long time to wean people off that. The Volt2 gets close to the point where any more battery range is nice but hardly a must. Even with only a 53+ mile EV range many owners are using more as a boat anchor than a propulsion system. ;)
     
  7. Zythryn

    Zythryn M3 Silver, M3 Midnight Silver

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    #27 Zythryn, Apr 9, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2016
    You are making unsupported supposition.
    Other EVs are just fine, even the first gen models, for some people.

    As for relative value, have other car companies failed because BMW builds a higher quality car than them?
    Your question is arrogant and assumptions way off base.

    People are discovering the joys of driving with electric drive trains thank to Tesla, and GM and Nissan and BMW and others. All are contributing to the goal although some more than others.

    Please don't discount the other manufacturers contributions. Tesla has sold less than a third of the EVs out there. To dismiss the others is unseemly.
     
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  8. Sparky

    Sparky Member

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    As I interpret it, Musk's vision is to accelerate the move to sustainable transport.
    This doesn't necessarily imply ramping up to insert an EV for the roughly 90 million ICE cars produced annually. It could mean thinking that we're at "peak auto" when we start becoming more efficient in how we use cars. Two-car families drop down to 1-car and "summon" a Model 3 parked somewhere in their neighborhood when they need a second car. Vehicle production drops dramatically and electric miles driven rises dramatically. Car companies make fewer cars but get paid per mile instead of per vehicle. Nissan has been talking up a service model as future path for a couple of years now so it's not just a Tesla vision.
    Most cars sit for 22 hours a day. Not very efficient.
     
  9. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    So every day when Denise or I go to work one of us has to summon a rental car and hope no one else is using it. This is so impractical that it's not even funny. Two (or more) car families are two car families because both parties need to go places at the same time. When we lived in Vancouver, Denise never needed a car so we only ever had one car. Now that we're in the U.S. one car just doesn't cut it.

    I'd also guess that the rental car fees will be something like 10% less than a taxi. No one could afford that on a daily basis. This is just as practical as saying that most people should commute by bicycle--which I did for a number of years--and it has about the same likelihood of success.
     
  10. weak_pig

    weak_pig Member

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    I read in some reports that suggests Tesla could get other car manufacturers to pay for the usage of the Superchargers, if they are willing to approach Tesla to share (instead of building their own).
     
  11. Off_Oil

    Off_Oil Member

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    As a 2014 Volt owner it's short sighted and bit frustrating to see BEV owners frequently lump the Volt EREV into the same category as a Prius. Most people drive less than 40 miles per day per the national statistics in the US. I fall into this usage category, and only burn gas ~4-5 times per year. The backup generator is essentially my Supercharger.

    If the goal is to reduce oil consumption and environmental damage, the EREV model could cut end-user gas consumption by at least 70% relatively quickly. It will be a long time before there is enough battery production capacity to fully equip every car in the US with a 200+ mile battery. Allocating more capacity to the EREV model could result in a quicker reduction in CO2 emissions than BEVs alone. It's also no secret gas stations make most of their money on items other than gas, so I'm not sure how rapidly we will see contraction. For my usage, I could easily see a 90% reduction without any serious inconvenience. Some of the gas stations along my long distance road trip routes are adding CCS quick charging stations. I could see this occurring on a larger scale over the long term as part of the transition, and to accommodate those without charging capabilities at home.

    All this said, my next car will either be a Tesla or the Bolt, however I realize I'm not in the current majority of car buyers. Cars today have a long lifespan, and I expect electric drive-trains will prove to be even more durable. The quicker we can reduce our carbon emissions the better it will be, regardless of the method used.
     
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  12. Snowdog

    Snowdog Member

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    I agree. Volt is is a true EREV, which is superior to the PHEV Prius, not only in range but in function.

    I read a study of Volts. The overall breakdown of Electric vs Gasoline miles was something like 75% Electric, 25% Gasoline.

    This is a great intermediate step.

    It would be much better to have 50% of the population driving an EREV doing 75% Electric miles, than 10% of the population driving and EV doing 100% electric miles.
     
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  13. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    Fallicy, aka wrong.

    They don't have to make EVs competitive with Tesla. They have to make EVs that are better than gas cars.

    If the Bolt looks goofy but costs less to drive than a Prius then it pulls business away from the Prius.

    It doesn't have to beat the Tesla to help move away from gas.
     
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  14. S'toon

    S'toon Knows where his towel is

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    I personally wouldn't mind the Bolt, except for the fact that there's no charging infrastructure. Heck, the nearest CCS charger is hundreds of kilometres further away from me than the nearest Supercharger. GM has openly stated they have no interest in building a charging network, so I'd be stuck driving it. That's the problem with the auto industry response. They have no interest in making a way of using the cars for cross-country travel.
     
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  15. NoPetrolDream

    NoPetrolDream Fandango

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    Yes, I don't see this "summon a car when I need it" idea working for everyone. Especially for people who may be on call for their job and have to drop what they're doing instantly to answer the call. What about those other "drop what you're doing and get over here or go there ASAP" moments life can throw one's way?

    Also, where would all these summon cars be staged to respond to calls? There would always need to be a standby pool to keep wait times low, with those pools distributed throughout a city for the same reason. Those pools need real estate.

    It is true my car on average sits about 22 hours a day. That's the encumberance for having 24/7 available transportation. I'd rather do that with an EV than an ICE, given a choice. Convenience carries a price; an EV strikes me as a more responsible way to pay that price.
     
  16. Topher

    Topher Energy Curmudgeon

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    People in NYC would disagree.
    Are you sure? Do you need to be traveling at the same exact time? Or is it just that you both need to go somewhere and park the car and let it sit for 8 hours? Is it impossible that one of you could shift your time a bit?

    Currently renting a car costs about 90% less than a taxi!

    But don't think of it as renting a car, think of it as splitting the cost of a car. If you and your neighbor used cars at different times, you could HALF the cost of a car. If 9 of your neighbors could share 3 cars, that would drop it to 1/3. If 100 of your neighbors could share 20 cars, that would drop it to 20% of the cost. Saving you many thousands of dollars a year.

    Thank you kindly.
     
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  17. Topher

    Topher Energy Curmudgeon

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    How many people need 'drop everything' access to cars? 1%? 2%? How many could get by with a 5 minute wait time?

    We could call them 'parking spaces'. Imagine how many more of those there would be if we merely dropped the number of cars by 50%.

    Thank you kindly.
     
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  18. SebastianR

    SebastianR Active Member

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    I know there is a lot of focus on BMW, Audi and Mercedes these days but I think there is one car company that has to fear most of Tesla. That car company is Porsche. According to their yearly press release they sold 225k cars in 2015. Tesla is already at roughly 25% of that. If the Model X starts to eat into the Cayenne market and the upcoming Model Y starts to eat the Macan - then I see Porsche go down since the two SUVs are what keeps Porsche alive. The Panamera is already feeling the heat of the Model S (even if Porsche would never admit that).

    Now, what happens if Porsche starts to fall due to Tesla? I would venture that VW (which owns Porsche) would wake up and smell the coffee and start to move... So let's see how Cayenne market shares behave when the Model X becomes more widely available - this will be fun to watch!
     
  19. ElectricTundra

    ElectricTundra P85D AP1

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    The average car in the U.S. remains parked, unused, and only taking up space for just under 23 hrs per day. Converting some of these number to carshare works quite well. My son and DIL sold their remaining car and now bike or use transit for most stuff and Car2Go when needed which they've found to be about twice per month. This has worked quite well for them.
     
  20. ElectricTundra

    ElectricTundra P85D AP1

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    The German's lost a lot of marketshare to Tesla in the large luxury segment (chart somewhere on this forum). The lines for a Model 3 drove home the point that the Model S was only the beginning. I don't think they'll dawdle too much longer.
     
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