Is Musk lying on maximum battery capacity?

[scaesare]

A great tip is to actually watch what you link to

They kept failing. The inverter thing was a happy coincidence not the underlying cause of the switch.

They indeed had to weld the transmissions in to second gear as they had no other choice. However that sacrificed a creation.

The new higher power IGBTs just coming out allowed them to beef up the inverter and thus keep the desired acceleration while using a single speed gear box.

 

[Brando]

Not for the car... for the battery upgrade. We know the cost is lower than $190 / kWh at the pack level. Find me a battery upgrade that isn't at least twice that hence several hundred percent higher than cost. (margins are always less than one)

example $190 cost sold at $600 = 68.3 percent margins and the price is 316% higher than cost

Yes, $600 is about 200% (several hundred percent) over cost (200 +400 = 600). Does it include labor charges too? Constantly changing, right? Or perhaps you meant upgrade at purchase? If you feel cheated by Tesla, I won't buy either.

 

[Brando]

They indeed had to weld the transmissions in to second gear as they had no other choice. However that sacrificed a creation.

The new higher power IGBTs just coming out allowed them to beef up the inverter and thus keep the desired acceleration while using a single speed gear box.

So Tesla learned what, to do it correctly like Rimac? Find a better transmission builder?

 

[Brando]

A great tip is to actually watch what you link to

They kept failing. The inverter thing was a happy coincidence not the underlying cause of the switch.

Not what Marc ever said. Do you actually need to listen to again?

 

[tpatana]

No, first car was already made. July 28th is the final reveal, first deliveries.

I wonder if Musk gets his car on 28th, or if they let him take it out for a spin earlier.

 

[Cloxxki]

The fanboys don't want to see that if Tesla prices the battery portion of their car at multiple of cost, then competitors (used to pricing ICE drivetrains at modest profits margins) can undercut them easily on total car costs, even if they spend ~30% more on their cells (which are maybe 60-70% of pack cost).
If VW (a very popular brand, like it or not) is happy to purchase packs at say $250 vs $190/kWh, and price them at normalized margin towards the cost of a car, they could offer a sortof ePassat that's just lovely at the price of a Model 3. And it would make them the same money as a smelly ICE Passat.

As VW has a customer base that is much more BEV-sceptical, hey'll have to (out-)do what Tesla did for the early Model S adopters in 2012, go high on range. And if they priotize that over cost (so much margin anyway) and luggage space (no new VS's with frunks since the original Beetle?) they could evven make a REALLY long range car shockingly affordable.
If alll you care for is range and you buy a Tesla S100, you need to also buy the D (costly), and the option package attached (very costly). VW could make a 400 mile ePassat and sell it for, say, $50k. The Model S has less range and costs double.

Eventually, when such cars actually start to come to markets and compete with each others (you CAN bargain with traditional car dealers...), Tesla will need to respond. Both in range offered and price. But I'm sure they'll enjoy the Apple-like margins for as long as they can. Certainly now they're (claiming to be) production limited.

 

[transpondster]

I thought the most recent, new 1860 in the Model S peak charges at 1.2C
All else staying the same, that might imply the Model 3 peak charges at 1.2 * 0.833 = 1C

Then a 55 kWh pack might reach 55 kW
the Bolt reaches 45 kW IIRC
So the Model 3 would have a 55/45 = 22% advantage in peak charging speed.

I'll hope for more !
For my personal use I'll be happy with an average throughput of 60 kW until 80% charge and anything faster will be a treat.

75 pack charges upto 100 kW so thats 1,33C peak, but yes it will average about 1,2C till 70% SOC, although we don't know if 18650 cells in beginning are limited by chemistry/cooling or supercharger current...

The fanboys don't want to see that if Tesla prices the battery portion of their car at multiple of cost, then competitors (used to pricing ICE drivetrains at modest profits margins) can undercut them easily on total car costs, even if they spend ~30% more on their cells (which are maybe 60-70% of pack cost).
If VW (a very popular brand, like it or not) is happy to purchase packs at say $250 vs $190/kWh, and price them at normalized margin towards the cost of a car, they could offer a sortof ePassat that's just lovely at the price of a Model 3. And it would make them the same money as a smelly ICE Passat.

As VW has a customer base that is much more BEV-sceptical, hey'll have to (out-)do what Tesla did for the early Model S adopters in 2012, go high on range. And if they priotize that over cost (so much margin anyway) and luggage space (no new VS's with frunks since the original Beetle?) they could evven make a REALLY long range car shockingly affordable.
If alll you care for is range and you buy a Tesla S100, you need to also buy the D (costly), and the option package attached (very costly). VW could make a 400 mile ePassat and sell it for, say, $50k. The Model S has less range and costs double.

Eventually, when such cars actually start to come to markets and compete with each others (you CAN bargain with traditional car dealers...), Tesla will need to respond. Both in range offered and price. But I'm sure they'll enjoy the Apple-like margins for as long as they can. Certainly now they're (claiming to be) production limited.

have you seen eGolf prices? Makes your argument kinda weak...

 

[Jayc]

VW could make a 400 mile ePassat and sell it for, say, $50k. The Model S has less range and costs double.

* I can categorically say VW will *not* be able to (at present) mass produce a 400 mile epassat or any time soon

* If they do somehow manage the feat (at present), it will sell well above 50k or sell at a loss at 50k

* If they do mange to in several years, by then (future) you'd be surprised what 50k will get you in a Tesla 3 or Y

* By then (future) you will probably not even have imagine what Model S will be capable of, including range.

So in 2017 (today, at present), please don't extrapolate your imagination and compare the present with imaginary, future, unconfirmed and unrealistic vaporware - its very very very misleading

 

[JeffK]

The point is, other manufactures have no issues undercutting Tesla in price as they are used to lower margins and can make up for it in volume. Competition is going to heat up sooner than we think.

 

[Model 3]

I wonder if Musk gets his car on 28th, or if they let him take it out for a spin earlier.

As a CEO and CTO of Tesla I'm sure he can take any production car for a "test spin" before it is delivered to the paying customer. And as the paying customer he can rest assured that no one will complain about getting delivered a "new" car with high mileage

But on the other hand, at the delivery event of the first customers Model S in 2012 they did *not* deliver at least the first two cars - that was delivered to Elon and an another board member. So no, I do not expect Elons car to be delivered on the 28th. I think he has got it delivered already, and probably also a few other cars to Tesla-VIP's. And that they are now "beta testing" this first production cars to find any problem they can get fixed before the delivery event. As they did with the Model S.

 

[cdub]

The point is, other manufactures have no issues undercutting Tesla in price as they are used to lower margins and can make up for it in volume. Competition is going to heat up sooner than we think.

True with regular cars yes. But other manufacturers CAN'T manufacture EVs like Telsa will be able to. They''ll only be able to max out in the tens of thousands and not HUNDREDS of thousands.

The choke point is batteries. Tesla has a Gigafactory. No one else does.

 

[Jayc]

The point is, other manufactures have no issues undercutting Tesla in price as they are used to lower margins and can make up for it in volume. Competition is going to heat up sooner than we think.

Yes that may be true and competition is good for us I agree. But, have you seen or heard of any other upcoming EV (confirmed for production next year or so) that you would actually like to get instead of Model 3 similar in size/class and price ? I haven't - and I browse the web daily for EV news.

My point is, for traditional manufacturers, this whole journey to EV is going to be really painful. They are going to have to admit that their new EV is going to be better than their current best ICE and a that point, a big chunk of their noise and tailpipe loving ICE fans are going to abandon their brand. That will happen long before the EV makes to production and ICE income will start to dwindle. Just think about Porsche. Do you really think the current fanbase will like a smooth and silent EV ? IMO it will take a generation for that image to be re-built and Porsche will really struggle to find a new identity in EV space because the upcoming Tesla Roadster 2 will beat its capabilities in every possible way. Think of BMW, do you really think they will have the guts to replace the M3 or M5 with an EV? Even if they do, will it be track-capable like the ICE and if not, what is the point? How can BMW go forward from i8? It is a big dilemma for the traditional manufacturers and IMO that is why Model S after 8 years still has no competition.

 

[SpiceWare]

Hmmm.... that's strange. You should get solar if you can afford it.

Check out my panels below. I installed it myself.

What's strange? Spending more due to AC usage in a hot climate? My winter electric bill's from $75-$90 while summer's $220-$230.

My home will be paid off in 2-3 years, at which time I plan to look into solar.

 

[JeffK]

Yes that may be true and competition is good for us I agree. But, have you seen or heard of any other upcoming EV (confirmed for production next year or so) that you would actually like to get instead of Model 3 similar in size/class and price ? I haven't - and I browse the web daily for EV news.

My point is, for traditional manufacturers, this whole journey to EV is going to be really painful. They are going to have to admit that their new EV is going to be better than their current best ICE and a that point, a big chunk of their noise and tailpipe loving ICE fans are going to abandon their brand. That will happen long before the EV makes to production and ICE income will start to dwindle. Just think about Porsche. Do you really think the current fanbase will like a smooth and silent EV ? IMO it will take a generation for that image to be re-built and Porsche will really struggle to find a new identity in EV space because the upcoming Tesla Roadster 2 will beat its capabilities in every possible way. Think of BMW, do you really think they will have the guts to replace the M3 or M5 with an EV? Even if they do, will it be track-capable like the ICE and if not, what is the point? How can BMW go forward from i8? It is a big dilemma for the traditional manufacturers and IMO that is why Model S after 8 years still has no competition.

Why corner yourself into niche markets? Think traditional car buyers, people who buy Toyota Camrys, Honda Accords, etc. When they look at getting an EV for their next car they are going to ask themselves. How far, how fast, and how much?

Now, if you get a manufacturer to offer a decently quick car, which has equal or greater range than a Model 3 for a lower price, then you will find some consumers buying that product.

True with regular cars yes. But other manufacturers CAN'T manufacture EVs like Telsa will be able to.

This exemplifies my point. Tesla has the ability right now to undercut competitors on price, range, and acceleration while still making a profit. Granted other competitors will take a few years to get ramped up. Tesla has also said publically that they are competing with ICEs, not just other EVs.

In sum, it's best for everyone if Tesla doesn't price the 75 kWh version too high.

 

[Garlan Garner]

What's strange? Spending more due to AC usage in a hot climate? My winter electric bill's from $75-$90 while summer's $220-$230.

My home will be paid off in 2-3 years, at which time I plan to look into solar.

I have never heard of a contract price with a Utility Company that sets a price for electricity. That's what I was thinking as strange.

Congratulations on paying of your home soon. That is HUGE.

 

[PJFW8]

The point is, other manufactures have no issues undercutting Tesla in price as they are used to lower margins and can make up for it in volume. Competition is going to heat up sooner than we think.

True, but all we have so far from most manufacturers are "concepts" and empty promises. I have no doubt that Mercedes and the VW group will make great EVs...in 4 or 5 years. You can't undercut a rival with promises.

 

[JeffK]

True, but all we have so far from most manufacturers are "concepts" and empty promises. I have no doubt that Mercedes and the VW group will make great EVs...in 4 or 5 years. You can't undercut a rival with empty promises.

Most of the Model 3 deliveries will happen in 2018. Several new long range EVs are coming as soon as 2019.

Don't forget the Model 3 was basically a "concept and empty promise" since last year. In this price and range category GM was first to market. This is prime opportunity to sell a greater range vehicle for a lower price and absolutely dominate the market.

Believe it or not there are people who still don't know what Tesla is or what EVs are capable of. Model 3 will change everything.

 

[PJFW8]

Several new long range EVs are coming as soon as 2019.

Possibly. Ford has slipped to 20. Jaguar may make it but will compete at the top end. The new Leaf is nice, but is no threat to Model 3. BMW will have a 3 series in 2019 model year with no charging infrastructure. I doubt there will be real competition before 2022, But I agree that it will be fierce in the fairly near future.

 

[Cloxxki]

have you seen eGolf prices? Makes your argument kinda weak...

So in your opinion eGolf is made to be made and sold in the highest possible quantities, and priced to move? Sincerely?
Many don't even believe that i3 and Bolt are such sincere attempts at conquering the BEV market.

 

[SpiceWare]

I have never heard of a contract price with a Utility Company that sets a price for electricity. That's what I was thinking as strange.

Gotcha. Possibly a side affect of how our deregulated electrical market. It had some growing pains at first, but we now pay lower than the national average:

Texas' electric prices did rise above the national average immediately after deregulation from 2003 to 2009, but, from 2010 to 2015 have moved significantly below the national average price per kWh, with a total cost of $0.0863 per kWh in Texas in 2015 vs. $0.1042 nationally, or 17 percent lower in Texas.

Congratulations on paying of your home soon. That is HUGE.

Thanks! I built it back in 99, and in the early 2000s got hit with a major financial crunch due to the economy. The company I worked for did layoff after layoff until they couldn't anymore, at which point they did a cross-the-board paycut in order to keep the doors open. The 20% loss in income caused me some major financial issues, which resulted in my viewing debt quite a bit differently than before. It was touch and go for a while, but picking up the occasional side job enabled me to keep my head just above water. My only debt now is the house, which I refinanced at a lower rate and have been paying extra on in order to eliminate sooner.