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Is Musk lying on maximum battery capacity?
- Thread starter Nuclear Fusion
- Start date
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I really don't know why you are so dogmatic and confident. "Want" is not the same thing as purchased, and your estimated options cost is just a guess. When I filled out your form I chose AWD but I didn't know at the time that it would be delayed. That must be one of dozens of uncertainties embedded in your data.
It would make sense if they started production with just the smaller battery options and RWD+AWD.
As we all know, this is not the case.
His average guess should be ether based either on what they will produce initial or the hole product specter.
But I do agree that his guess will probably miss the target, maybe even by a large amount. But his guess should still be somewhat reasonable. Guessing that his guesstimate is below the base price of the car with the bigger battery seams unlikely.
Yes, they said it was based on inside source but they didn't just report the news. They supported the same idea. Therefore Teslarati's inside source is wrong and Teslarati is also wrong by saying the base model will be 60 kWh. This could have a simple explanation. Maybe Tesla was toying with the 60 kWh idea. Maybe they are considering 55/60/75 kWh versions where the 55 kWh would be a software limited 60. That's one of my predictions. Of course, in this scenario, if you looked at the battery sticker, it would say 60 kWh but the base model would be 55 kWh because it would be software limited.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Garlan Garner
Banned
That's hilarious.
How can an average selling price be determined with NO cars sold yet. There has only been one price set.
That's like asking how long a rope is when your are holding one end and the other end goes through a hole in the side of a mountain.
@SageBrush, yeah it's difficult to follow when you cut the quote mid sentence. The blue section is one statement. The orange section is another statement. You are connecting the wrong parts. The part you excluded should be there.
Yes, they said it was based on inside source but they didn't just report the news. They supported the same idea. Therefore Teslarati's inside source is wrong and Teslarati is also wrong by saying the base model will be 60 kWh.
By the way, as usual, I have added people who downvoted me to my ignore list. (@imherkimer and @JeffK) I guess overly optimistic people don't like my predictions. No problem.
Yes, they said it was based on inside source but they didn't just report the news. They supported the same idea. Therefore Teslarati's inside source is wrong and Teslarati is also wrong by saying the base model will be 60 kWh.
By the way, as usual, I have added people who downvoted me to my ignore list. (@imherkimer and @JeffK) I guess overly optimistic people don't like my predictions. No problem.
JeffK
Well-Known Member
That's mature, I disagreed with a single comment because it's based on bad math. It makes a wild claim that pack level costs are $160 / kWh (this is not based on anything Tesla has said publicly), it completely ignores sales lost to the Chevy Bolt, which might sit in between the base Model 3 and the battery upgrade if the base Model 3 doesn't compete on range.
You are basing range assumptions on the lower end of 215+ and statements made by VP of investor relations less than one month after the initial Model 3 reveal, well before the Bolt was released. Unless you have another source we don't know about.
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As promised, here is link to the predictions competition. It hasn't started yet which means now is a great time to submit questions you want to be included.
@tpatana, there is a question about the battery price difference for the larger battery. I think asking for the price per kWh makes more sense because we don't know for sure if the difference between the small and large battery will be 15 or 20 kWh. There could even be 3 batteries.
@Model 3, I'm considering a question about dual motors price because it is something we can find a definitive answer for. I'm not sure about adding questions like average sale price of the Model 3.
@tpatana, there is a question about the battery price difference for the larger battery. I think asking for the price per kWh makes more sense because we don't know for sure if the difference between the small and large battery will be 15 or 20 kWh. There could even be 3 batteries.
@Model 3, I'm considering a question about dual motors price because it is something we can find a definitive answer for. I'm not sure about adding questions like average sale price of the Model 3.
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Thanks, now I understand. You are saying that both are wrong because they disagree with you. Your coloring though is amusing; you are breaking up sentences.
Fwiw, I figure everybody has a right to guess, and some will be better guesses than others. It would not occur to me to down-vote any guess unless it was obvious trolling or ignored available factual information. Hubris, on the other hand ...
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PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
Troy, I concede your hard work to gather the data and your accuracy has been impressive. Recall that Trev's discussion of a 100kWh Model 3 is from the time when we were considering the minor difference in wheel base and the greater efficiency of the new cell size. We missed that the 2 motors are inside the wheelbase (unlike the S and X) and the lack of a dual layer area. Trev was merely speculating as to maximum capacity which is now known to be 75. Many of us had hoped for 85 to 95. Soon we will know all. I expect your predictions will be substantiated.
I don't think it's impossible we'll see 60 as the base. If Gigafactory made them hit really low price for batteries, they could still hit their profit margin target even if they add ~5kWh over the earlier estimate. I can't estimate what's the probability of 55 vs 60, but both are possible.
@tpatana, the fixed price at $35K and profit margins of the 60 are not the reasons that make the 60 kWh base model impossible. It is the negative effect it would have on the 75. The 75 would suffer badly if there was a 60 kWh base model at $35K. I'm 100% sure there won't be a 60 kWh Model 3 starting at $35K, despite rumors. It is possible that there will be a 60 kWh but it won't be the base model and it won't start at $35K.
It is even possible they might have figured out a way to achieve 215+ mi EPA with a 50 kWh battery. In this scenario, having a 60 kWh middle size battery would make sense. There are many scenarios where a 60 kWh could exist but none of them have the 60 as the base model at $35K.
It is even possible they might have figured out a way to achieve 215+ mi EPA with a 50 kWh battery. In this scenario, having a 60 kWh middle size battery would make sense. There are many scenarios where a 60 kWh could exist but none of them have the 60 as the base model at $35K.
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Why it'd have negative effect? I'd still pay ~$7k-$10k for the 75, even if the base was 60.
And I'm sure there's already plenty people who know that (if it's 55 or 60) for 100% certainty, but I assume most of them work at Tesla. You have some inside info there, or is your 100% just your strong feeling? Are you Musk under alias?
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Expecting a 60 kWh Model 3 at $35k strikes me as more of the mini-Model S at half price discussion I thought we had dispensed with.
And to be clear, I understand your logic. I just don't agree it matches to 100% certainty.
Then again, I'm physicist. I have problem with 100% claims, since very few things in physics are 100% sure. Lot of things are 99.lot-of-nines-% sure but not 100%.
So without inside intel I still hold to my earlier statement that 60 is possible option for base.
Then again, I'm physicist. I have problem with 100% claims, since very few things in physics are 100% sure. Lot of things are 99.lot-of-nines-% sure but not 100%.
So without inside intel I still hold to my earlier statement that 60 is possible option for base.
@tpatana, check out my previous message again. I was editing it when you responded. I added another paragraph.
The reason I'm 100% sure there won't be a 60 kWh starting at $35K is that the illogicality of it is overwhelming. I'm continuously repeating "no 60 at $35K" because there is a chance we might see a 60. I don't want people to come back and say, see you were wrong. There might be a 60 but it won't be the base model starting at $35K.
I don't have any insider information. I'm a Tesla fanatic. I follow Tesla closely. I read every shareholder letter, blog post etc. I listen to every conference call multiple times and watch all of Elon's and JB's videos. Then I research pieces of information and put them all together on a large spreadsheet.
For example, here is the file I created for range calculations. I went to great lengths to try to calculate the Model 3 weight accurately for different battery sizes. I found an official document here in a forgotten corner of the Internet that had some useful information. I used that in calculations. Even then, my predictions are not always correct but mostly they are. You can see a list here.
The reason I'm 100% sure there won't be a 60 kWh starting at $35K is that the illogicality of it is overwhelming. I'm continuously repeating "no 60 at $35K" because there is a chance we might see a 60. I don't want people to come back and say, see you were wrong. There might be a 60 but it won't be the base model starting at $35K.
I don't have any insider information. I'm a Tesla fanatic. I follow Tesla closely. I read every shareholder letter, blog post etc. I listen to every conference call multiple times and watch all of Elon's and JB's videos. Then I research pieces of information and put them all together on a large spreadsheet.
For example, here is the file I created for range calculations. I went to great lengths to try to calculate the Model 3 weight accurately for different battery sizes. I found an official document here in a forgotten corner of the Internet that had some useful information. I used that in calculations. Even then, my predictions are not always correct but mostly they are. You can see a list here.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Even though I expect them to use only a minimal capacity to achieve the goals (for example beating the Bolt 238 miles EPA may not necessarily require 60 kWh, nor will Tesla necessarily aim for a 238+ miles of combined EPA range), one factor is Elon's ego. He may simply go with the 60kWh base because of that.
Also note that Tesla convention says even a "60kWh" pack will not be 60kWh usable (might not even be 60kWh actual; Tesla rounds up).
Also note that Tesla convention says even a "60kWh" pack will not be 60kWh usable (might not even be 60kWh actual; Tesla rounds up).
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Lol, I'm similar. Not a scientist, but software engineer and I take "100% certain" and "you are wrong" statements as not applicable until the facts are actually established. I personally, even if I'm very certain of my speculation I would put "99% certain" or "you are very likely wrong". I don't like speaking in absolutes until something is actually established as fact, although in this forum I know a couple members who speak like that.
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