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Is Tesla opening two SuperCharger sites a day anytime soon?
- Thread starter Missile Toad
- Start date
cpa
Active Member
I am just recalling from memory, so my numbers might be off a little. Blueshift's page shows the number of SC under construction. I think the greatest number of Superchargers ever under construction at any given time was ~18 months ago with around 24, but generally that number has fluctuated from 6-16 or so. As I type this, there are a dozen under construction here in the US of A. (Ones that we know about, of course.)
I also think that Tesla will be adding a number of sales and service centers in the coming year or two, and Tesla likely will be placing SC at those locations. So, there might be the added wait for Tesla to pull the trigger and open a sales/service center/Supercharger. I suspect that many of the future locations will be at future, undetermined sales/service centers.
I also think that Tesla will be adding a number of sales and service centers in the coming year or two, and Tesla likely will be placing SC at those locations. So, there might be the added wait for Tesla to pull the trigger and open a sales/service center/Supercharger. I suspect that many of the future locations will be at future, undetermined sales/service centers.
Did you look at the rollout map that Tesla just released???? It shows 17 new locations, not extra stalls in existing locations, but 17 new locations in the Bay Area alone. Each one of them says "Target opening by end of 2017". There are only 5 locations now. An additional 17 locations by end of 2017 plus whatever extra stalls they're going to add to existing locations? I sure hope it's true but not seeing it.
@sorka They did say that California was going to get more than a proportional share of the chargers: "In North America, we’ll increase the number of Superchargers by 150 percent, and in California alone we’ll add more than 1,000 Superchargers."
They are planning on adding ~4,600 Superchargers worldwide with ~1,000 of them in California. So California is getting ~22% of the worldwide Superchargers that they plan to install this year.
Looking at @stopcrazypp numbers from his 'webfu', we are adding 346 sites in 2017. Now, I'm using my spreadsheet for a hypothetical ramp (disregard my earlier June-December numbers... sum doesn't add):
YTD 16
May 14
June 22
July 38
August 45
September 52
October 60
November 80
December 30
-----------
Total 357 (ish)
YTD 16
May 14
June 22
July 38
August 45
September 52
October 60
November 80
December 30
-----------
Total 357 (ish)
EV-lutioin
Active Member
Simply based on the expansion rate in the first four months of 2017, Tesla has not demonstrated any urgency to expand the Supercharger network. It would require a Herculean effort to meet their ambitious goals for expansion at this point. Not saying it can't be done, but.......
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I should note, not all of them say "Target opening by end of 2017", only 279 sites say that. 66 sites say
"Target opening date to be confirmed". And there is 1 site at Mountain View, CA that says nothing.
Hey that 279 sites falls in the range I estimated of 191 and 287, by just looking at the information in their blog post.
Though I really expected it to be on the lower end of the range.This expansion is obviously a huge task. However, the fact that WE only found out about it last week doesn't mean that Tesla staff only found out about it last week (though of course that's not unheard of...).
A small bit of anecdotal info from situation in the UK:
Tesla have long been trying to get Superchargers at the service areas on UK motorways, encountering various legal and commercial obstacles along the way. Back in mid 2016, Tesla announced that they'd finally reached a deal with one of the operators of these sites (Welcome Break) and were building Superchargers at 7 of their locations. IIRC 4 got built quite quickly and the other three turned up over the next several months. A forum member happened to bump into the CEO of WB at that time and asked him what the plan was; he apparently replied "We'll have superchargers at ALL of our sites!". Nobody really believed this; over the following year or so a couple more got built at their sites, but people went from "Whoo! all these new superchargers!" back to "Why is the rollout so slow?". Then suddenly last month another 8 of their sites got announced - all of those are now in construction and several of them are already finished and open. Many of the previously unannounced locations on the new Tesla map (in addition to the ones in construction) are also WB sites.
Separately, Tesla have long been trying to get into one of the other operating groups (there's 3 major ones nationally) and had been encouraging owners to write requesting superchargers as the site owners were apparently not convinced of the demand. Recently we learned that Tesla actually did a deal last year, but the site chosen for the pilot installation was bogged down in wayleaves needed to bring power onto the site. This was reputedly solved last month and construction has started. A couple more locations on the new Tesla map look to be this operator's sites.
Also worth mentioning that all these newly-built sites are bigger than the ones we had previously - mostly 12 stall.
So it's easily possible that the UK supercharger count will more than double this year - but on the back of work they have been doing over the past several years to prepare the way.
A small bit of anecdotal info from situation in the UK:
Tesla have long been trying to get Superchargers at the service areas on UK motorways, encountering various legal and commercial obstacles along the way. Back in mid 2016, Tesla announced that they'd finally reached a deal with one of the operators of these sites (Welcome Break) and were building Superchargers at 7 of their locations. IIRC 4 got built quite quickly and the other three turned up over the next several months. A forum member happened to bump into the CEO of WB at that time and asked him what the plan was; he apparently replied "We'll have superchargers at ALL of our sites!". Nobody really believed this; over the following year or so a couple more got built at their sites, but people went from "Whoo! all these new superchargers!" back to "Why is the rollout so slow?". Then suddenly last month another 8 of their sites got announced - all of those are now in construction and several of them are already finished and open. Many of the previously unannounced locations on the new Tesla map (in addition to the ones in construction) are also WB sites.
Separately, Tesla have long been trying to get into one of the other operating groups (there's 3 major ones nationally) and had been encouraging owners to write requesting superchargers as the site owners were apparently not convinced of the demand. Recently we learned that Tesla actually did a deal last year, but the site chosen for the pilot installation was bogged down in wayleaves needed to bring power onto the site. This was reputedly solved last month and construction has started. A couple more locations on the new Tesla map look to be this operator's sites.
Also worth mentioning that all these newly-built sites are bigger than the ones we had previously - mostly 12 stall.
So it's easily possible that the UK supercharger count will more than double this year - but on the back of work they have been doing over the past several years to prepare the way.
Permits have been found by members here scouting them out. Since there are many California Superchargers already, it has become more difficult to look at a map and guess where the next one will be. I think the permit detectives have slowed down for this reason. There have been times new Superchargers have started construction before anyone noticed the permits.
Even *if* that were true, you'd think the permit level would have continued along a historical rate but it's completely dropped to zero.
The last permit for CA found by any member driving sueprcharge.info data was over 14 months ago which is by far the long stretch since Tesla started rolling out the network.
1 week since the announcement and still no new permits found. Given they said which cities the new chargers would be going in, you'd think think these would be easy to find.
FlyF4
Son of a MX
Wooooo, just a second there....
Being intimately familiar with this topic, the fact that you don't see a "massive" spike is not an indication of things just paddling along as usual. It takes about 40-50 days from the start of an increase in installation plans to the point that you see the changes on the internet sites that folks are probably visiting to infer how things are really going. Further, winter has some effect on installations in the North but not to the extent that most people think on here. Even if it were winter right now, it "might" affect total USA installations by only 10-15%.
The truth is not binary (end of 2017 or 2018), but somewhere in the middle. As of April 10, there was an average of one new SC LOCATIONS every 5 days in USA. That number has increased to one every 3 days right now, but like I said, you won't see a spike in permits for weeks to come. Keep in mind that while there are web sites like Supercharge.info which do a pretty good job of updating stations, they still depend on delayed information reported by 3rd party entities and individuals.
On the positive side, there are plenty of independent companies available and cooperating to install SCs, so this is not dependent on Tesla alone to ramp up these installations. The real number will likely be in the range of 500 total USA "LOCATIONS" by end of 2017. Many variables affecting it. Note I emphasized LOCATIONS. Much emphasis is being placed on increasing the number of stalls at existing locations, so folks shouldn't conclude that all of the new stalls coming this year will be at new locations.
Just as important is the increasing number of destination locations as it does help to alleviate morning congestion of vacationers whom head out in the morning from a destination where their car has been charging over night.
Lastly, although I have not seen it mentioned here yet, I suspect some are thinking that if Tesla were to double or triple the number of cars on the road by end of 2017 or 2018 due to M3 production, it does not mean there needs double or triple the number of charging stations. It is not a linear equation. Several variables affect that calculation. The main one being that a substantial portion of owners charge at home and commute rather than going to SC stalls unless they go on long trips.
FlyF4
Son of a MX
Close, but it isn't going to work that way. contractors will still be used, weather is a minor issue but still affected, and yes definitely increased reliability. The big problem still being building permits (in most areas). Fast in some places (7 days or less), slow is others (up to 30 days been seen).
FlyF4
Son of a MX
The most accurate post I've seen thus far. I know this for a fact. Not 100% accurate, but close enough to what is actually occurring.
I'll just add that most people are assuming all the new stalls will be at NEW locations and that is not the case. Emphasis is being placed on increasing existing "crowded" stalls, and less (but still a priority) importance on NEW locations.
Yes, but why would you think that the percentage use of superchargers would be any less among Model 3 owners? Are they less likely to go on long trips as Model S or X owners? I don't understand why you think it's not linear. Double the number of cars and you double the number of supercharging sessions, assuming the same percentage of charging done at superchargers as we have now (about 10% of miles driven is what Tesla said a year or two ago). In fact as the supercharger network has been built out over the last year, some trips that weren't practical before are practical now, so there may be even more trips taken instead of using the ICE.
IdaX
Member
Because they have to pay for it, unlike almost every other Tesla to date. I wonder how much SuperCharger use diminished with the advent of pay-for-charge for S & X...
FlyF4
Son of a MX
Good question TexasEV. All of your points are valid. Perhaps I did not say it in a way to convey the facts. I am not saying that M3 owners are any different than S or X owners. What I am saying is that the number of INCREASED Tesla cars on the road is not linear to the number of NEW locations needed. There are several variables that affect it and it differs by city size. That's all I can say. Bottom line is that triple the cars will not result in triple locations from current.
I have to say when I got my S, we thought even having ONE good path across the US was crazy and another one of Elon's over promises, but looking at the map now with almost 850 worldwide. WOW! I am planning a long trip this summer and the ones he has been putting up have already made an improvement in that trip (assuming the construction completes, they get Electric and inspections are complete). He has more than impressed with the SuperCharger roll out.
Ulmo
Active Member
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