Is the Model 3 moving the climate needle? (Not really, no.)

[Bangor Bob]

While it's fantastic to see the number of reservations rising, I was having a thought about Elon opening with the climate discussion, and thought I'd figure out the impact of the Model 3 at full production:

Assume: A Model 3 is replacing on average a 30mpg combined sedan, production volume of 500,000 per year, 12,000 miles/year/vehicle, and 19 gallon of gas per barrel...

So, 500,000 Model 3's cover 6 billion miles per year.
Avoiding the consumption of 200 million gallons of gasoline per year.
547,945 gallons per day.

Roughly 29,000 barrel of oil/day for each full year's production of Model 3s. The world is currently using somewhere around 90 million barrels a day. Clearly, Tesla isn't going to be able to do this on their own.

Let's hope the Paris deal, in combination with Tesla destroying demand for gassers in profitable segments, gets lawmakers and auto companies moving towards electrification faster...

 

[ChadS]

Absolutely. Musk has always said that he needs help from the rest of the industry - that is why his goal is to transform the industry, rather than to have Tesla rule a small EV niche.

That's part of what's so frustrating about a few people here that relentlessly bash other PEVs. Sure, they can all use some improvement, but some here go way overboard. Any electric mile is a good mile. We need to encourage other automakers.

Many more thoughts on this topic (the other automakers) is in the link in my signature below.

 

[miatadan]

I agree that any electric mile is a good mile. Besides Tesla I do like the BMW i3


" That's part of what's so frustrating about a few people here that relentlessly bash other PEVs. Sure, they can all use some improvement, but some here go way overboard. Any electric mile is a good mile. We need to encourage other automakers. "

 

[Craig9080]

I think Tesla knows that they impact far more than what rolls out of their manufacturing plants. Prior to Tesla, electric cars were crap. No one who actually enjoyed the action of driving, let alone considered themselves a motoring enthusiast, would get in one and I count myself among those people. Tesla changed the game and proved the point that EVs can, and should, be driver's cars. This is Tesla's accomplishment, changing the mindset of the public as well as causing the established auto manufactures to acknowledge that they called a bad play in not backing the EV transition earlier. The Bolt is a fantastic example of what Detroit thinks of an EV, a low-performance city "utility" vehicle meant to be sold to hipsters. It will fail, and in the face of diminishing market share Detroit will have to put more time, effort, and money into developing real competition for Tesla.

 

[ikjadoon]

It's long, but this is unequivocally the best article on Tesla's impact:

How Tesla Will Change The World - Wait But Why

 

[wannamodels]

I think Tesla knows that they impact far more than what rolls out of their manufacturing plants. Prior to Tesla, electric cars were crap. No one who actually enjoyed the action of driving, let alone considered themselves a motoring enthusiast, would get in one and I count myself among those people. Tesla changed the game and proved the point that EVs can, and should, be driver's cars. This is Tesla's accomplishment, changing the mindset of the public as well as causing the established auto manufactures to acknowledge that they called a bad play in not backing the EV transition earlier. The Bolt is a fantastic example of what Detroit thinks of an EV, a low-performance city "utility" vehicle meant to be sold to hipsters. It will fail, and in the face of diminishing market share Detroit will have to put more time, effort, and money into developing real competition for Tesla.

++1!

 

[eloder]

An imperfect solution is better than no solution at all. If we keep waiting for the perfect solution, the world will be toast for our ancestors.

 

[ChadS]

Prior to Tesla, electric cars were crap. No one who actually enjoyed the action of driving, let alone considered themselves a motoring enthusiast, would get in one and I count myself among those people.

That was certainly the perception, but I have driven and even owned some of those cars, and I disagree that they were crap. Not advertised, supported, widely available, high-performance, attractive...sure. ASSUMED to be crap, definitely. But there were some nice cars.

The rest of your point stands without that though. Tesla has definitely changed perceptions, and regardless of whether I own their future cars I will always appreciate them for that.

 

[SageBrush]

Some 89 million cars sold worldwide in 2015, expected to reach 100M in 2020.
So the Tesla production in 2020 will be 1:200

That does not sound like a lot, but consider: a single, fledgling company takes over half of one percent of the the biggest industry in the world in a decade.

 

[ohmman]

a single, fledgling company takes over half of one percent of the the biggest industry in the world in a decade.

And an industry with very steep barriers to entry.

 

[DaveD]

..., the world will be toast for our ancestors.

I think you meant to say descendants.

 

[tpoltron]

What's the old saying about the longest journey starting with a single step? That would have been the Roadster so though still early in a very long journey, significant progress has been made and hopefully progress over the next two decades will be exponential.

 

[graphix25]

I think you meant to say descendants.

You see the Tesla Model3 is from the future. So it will be his futures children's ancestors who will benefit.

Time travel is tricky business. Better left to the professionals.

 

[Woosie]

Absolutely. Musk has always said that he needs help from the rest of the industry - that is why his goal is to transform the industry, rather than to have Tesla rule a small EV niche.

That's part of what's so frustrating about a few people here that relentlessly bash other PEVs. Sure, they can all use some improvement, but some here go way overboard. Any electric mile is a good mile. We need to encourage other automakers.

Many more thoughts on this topic (the other automakers) is in the link in my signature below.

I loved most everything about my 2013 Leaf except for the range. I realize a Tesla is simply MORE in ph so many ways. Like you said, any electric mile is a good mile. I mean I feel guilty about driving a Gen 2 Prius between a BEV lease then purchase.

 

[Woosie]

I think Tesla knows that they impact far more than what rolls out of their manufacturing plants. Prior to Tesla, electric cars were crap. No one who actually enjoyed the action of driving, let alone considered themselves a motoring enthusiast, would get in one and I count myself among those people. Tesla changed the game and proved the point that EVs can, and should, be driver's cars. This is Tesla's accomplishment, changing the mindset of the public as well as causing the established auto manufactures to acknowledge that they called a bad play in not backing the EV transition earlier. The Bolt is a fantastic example of what Detroit thinks of an EV, a low-performance city "utility" vehicle meant to be sold to hipsters. It will fail, and in the face of diminishing market share Detroit will have to put more time, effort, and money into developing real competition for Tesla.

Craig, I sat in and evaluated the Bolt about a year before it was unveiled, at a User Group review. Simply the car is pretty awesome and useful. The biggest issue is traditional OEM's have to break their dealership paradigm before BEV's will catch on. Dealerships don't see profit with BEV's, as they don't generate predictable servicing needs, unlike ICE autos. And Uswrs want free charging at the dealership - more profit loss. This the change.

This is actually one of the biggest positives for Tesla, given their showroom/service center model.

 

[Woosie]

And an industry with very steep barriers to entry.

Try aircraft manufacturing if you want a market with a steep barrier to entry!!

 

[ohmman]

Try aircraft manufacturing if you want a market with a steep barrier to entry!!

..or aerospace..

 

[stopcrazypp]

That was certainly the perception, but I have driven and even owned some of those cars, and I disagree that they were crap. Not advertised, supported, widely available, high-performance, attractive...sure. ASSUMED to be crap, definitely. But there were some nice cars.

They weren't necessarily crap cars, just cars enthusiast would never be caught dead in. And in no way where they a match for cars in the same price point.

The game changer part of Tesla is that at least perceptively they have a car that fits in its price bracket (regardless of the EV part). The other automakers on the other hand had cars that had an "EV premium".

 

[Jeff N]

The Bolt is a fantastic example of what Detroit thinks of an EV, a low-performance....

Zero to 60 mph times for the BEVs on the market recently or on the immediate horizon plus Model 3:

<6 Tesla Model 3
-------
6.5 BMW i3
6.8 MB B250e (Tesla)
<7 GM Bolt EV
-------
7.9 GM Spark EV
8.7 Fiat 500e
9.8 Smart EV
10.0 VW e-Golf
10.1 Ford Focus EV
10.2 Nissan LEAF
10+ Hyundai Ioniq
11.2 Kia Soul EV

The B250e is a conversion car done by Tesla with Model S powertrain components.

Most likely the Bolt EV will end up at 6.5 or higher so it is probably either 2nd or 3rd.

 

[wallet.dat]

In before wdolson.