June 20th Speculation

[Larry Chanin]

Although Elon has announced a battery pack swapping demo, he's said nothing about it's intended use.
It could be initially just for large Model S fleet users, such as limo or taxi company's, those vehicles get many hours/day of usage, and a swapping scheme is needed for that market.
We still know nothing about its purpose, just going to have to wait another few days.

Good point.

I believe this demonstration has more to do with substantiating a marketing claim, "Recharges faster than you can fill a gas tank.", than announcing a major expansion of a new battery swapping business. Perhaps they will announce that select service centers will offer this as an experiment to guage interest. Storage requirements would be minimal for such a pilot.

Ultimately swapping for road trips is merely an interim approach that is virtually guaranteed to be phased out due to continued advancements in battery and charging technology, the expansion of quickcharging infrastructure (Supercharging and SAE combos), and overnight charging at hotels.

With regard to limo or taxi company's have swapping facilities, I doubt it. For the most part they are commuting vehicles and don't require a battery swap to avoid getting stranded between destinations. The vision of continually swapping out 1000+ pound battery packs in a taxi garage makes me wince. Insurers would too. I think it would be more likely that Tesla would work a deal to sell, or give them Superchargers if the company buys a certain number of Model S or Xs.

In the future there will be a permanent and major business that will to a degree involve swapping batteries, but not fast swapping. That is grid storage. I don't foresee an automated process whereby battery packs are yanked out of passenger vehicles and swapped into a grid storage facility. I see aging battery packs going to service centers where they are swapped with new battery packs. Then the old battery packs are sent to a facility where the cells are removed and recycled, or they are used to build grid storage battery packs in a new form factor. This form factor would be more compact and easier to transport and install by hand and it would be suitable for installation in racks within electric cabinets at Supercharger stations. So as the Supercharger expansion rolls out, pad-mounted grid storage would provide a revenue producing place to store "recyled" batteries.

With the success of Tesla and other manufacturers using Tesla powertrains, or licensed technology, I expect Tesla to continue to partner with utilities to expand Supercharger stations with grid storage beyond just strategic highway routes, but into parking areas throughout the country. At this point, if there ever was a business case for fast battery swapping facilities for a small niche market it would cease to be viable.

Larry

 

[deonb]

deonb, initially it could just be for fleets, it needs to be "tested" and proven. Also, Elon hasn't put a time frame or promised when this would be availble. I'm guessing this is a technology / capability demo for now, and likely a very limited initial deployment. Thursday night is only a few days from now, lets see what the man has to say.

Sure, but he would have to explain that tweet. Unless he wants to lose all twitter credibility and give up his ability to whip the shorts at a whim.

I am confused about timing of tweet. Great secret kept then ? Poor file naming. Web site corrected days ago. Why tweet last night? No great clamor for pre anouncement. There is something more to this

I agree.

 

[JRod0802]

I am confused about timing of tweet. Great secret kept then ? Poor file naming. Web site corrected days ago. Why tweet last night? No great clamor for pre anouncement. There is something more to this

I agree too. Since this is a speculation thread, and everyone else is speculating, I figure I might as well throw my guess in as well. When the new service strategy was announced on 4/26/2013, during the Q&A one person asked if in the future you could swap out your 300-mile battery for a 400-mile battery, to which Elon replied "400? Why not 500?". So, since this is a battery swap announcement, and it seems like there's more to it than just battery swap, I'm going to guess Elon will announce a larger battery that can be swapped to. Possibly a 500 mile battery.

 

[ShortSlaver]

At the very least it shows the battery isn't tied to the car. When you buy a Tesla, you can buy a better battery down the road. If new battery tech comes out in 3 years, you can sell your used battery back to Tesla and get the new one, extending the life of the car.

It also makes the used Tesla market amazing now. Tesla will control a large portion of the used market and will be able to more easily sell used Model S vehicles as buyers will know it's easy to swap the battery out if something happens or it begins to run out of life.

I don't see this as something that is used day to day by people - that's super charging. This enhances the used market Tesla will control, gives buyers assurance they can get a better battery one day and possibly special cases, such as taxi's, will be abel to take advantage of this day to day.

 

[jeff_adams]

If the swaps were going to be done at service centers, why demo at a supercharger location?

 

[Curt Renz]

ps: for those repeating BetterPlace: their model has failed as they had no consumers for their stations. Tesla has the Model S, and its drivers ready to start using any station they will put up.

Here's a tweet that Elon added at 07:57 PDT to this morning's twitter thread in response to a comment about Shai Agassi of Better Place: "Shai actually got the idea from a visit to Tesla. The idea is obvious (many things allow battery swap), but the technology is not."

 

[EV2BFREE]

I agree too. Since this is a speculation thread, and everyone else is speculating, I figure I might as well throw my guess in as well. When the new service strategy was announced on 4/26/2013, during the Q&A one person asked if in the future you could swap out your 300-mile battery for a 400-mile battery, to which Elon replied "400? Why not 500?". So, since this is a battery swap announcement, and it seems like there's more too it than just battery swap, I'm going to guess Elon will announce a larger battery that can be swapped to. Possibly a 500 mile battery.

With the Super Chargers being built I do not think that it would make sense for Tesla to also build a network of battery swapping stations. Expensive up front and I doubt they would be used much considering the average Model S owner would only use a Super Charger a couple times a year if they go on a trip or perhaps once every couple of months for shopping at large malls.

What does make sense would be these battery swapping stations to be available at service centers. If Tesla puts out a 500 mile battery pack, the owner would have the option of paying for an upgrade to that new battery pack and it could be done within a few minutes. Also, I believe that Elon Musk mentioned being able to swap a battery for a used one on long trips and then pick up your old battery on the way home. Service centers would allow for the storage space and perhaps a rental fee without building more infrastructure/swap stations.

Say I was planning a trip from Philadelphia to Richmond,Virginia. I could make an appointment at the Service Center in Washington to swap my battery out for a 500-mile battery pack. I get to the Service Center and it takes 3 minutes to get the new pack in and continue to drive to Richmond. That new pack will last long enough for all of the driving around I do in Richmond and for the driving back to the Washington Service Center. I tell Tesla I am returning in 2 days and I make another appointment to pick up my old battery pack and drive home, back to Philadelphia. I only have to stop that one time for a couple of minutes which is just like stopping for gas. That could give me 600-700miles for only stopping once. Even if I decided to drive more miles then that, I would be able to take advantage of the local Super Charger. The only thing I have not figured out is a rental cost for the battery. Would that be something that is tacked on to the car cost like the $2000 Super Charger access? The batteries could work like the loaner cars, if I want to keep that new 500-mile battery pack I would just have to pay the cost difference.

Just trying to look at this from a business standpoint because like I stated previously, a new network of battery swapping stations would be expensive. The way I proposed would only need the battery swapping station inside the Service Center.

 

[CyberDutchie]

If I could get picked up in a Model S, that would be awesome. Instead, I have to wait for my smelly NYC taxi.

Don't you think ingress into the Model S back seats can be a little challenging for some people for it to be the taxi of choice?

Model X would make an awesome taxi though...

 

[markb1]

If the swaps were going to be done at service centers, why demo at a supercharger location?

It can accommodate an audience? They've done a number of other events there, as well, including the Model X introduction and the Get Amped test drive event. Service centers are far too busy and crowded to accommodate events.

 

[deonb]

It can accommodate an audience? They've done a number of other events there, as well, including the Model X introduction and the Get Amped test drive event. Service centers are far too busy and crowded to accommodate events.

The address given is actually shared between the SuperCharger and design center. So you can't really tell.

 

[Curt Renz]

"All Things Digital" published an article at 10:55 PDT regarding the battery swap demonstration: Tesla to Demo On-the-Road Battery Swapping - John Paczkowski - News - AllThingsD

 

[NigelM]

Mod Note: Personal provocations went to snippiness. As usual, apologies to any innocents who got caught up in the spat.

 

[markb1]

The address given is actually shared between the SuperCharger and design center. So you can't really tell.

Well, yes. When those events that I mentioned occurred, there wasn't even a supercharger there.

 

[Soundart]

I disagree. The concept only works well if the batteries/cars are leased and I challenge any TMC-er who owns their car to say they would be with following realistic scenario:

I drop off my 2-year old battery with 40,000 miles and umpteen ranges charges off, and pick up a new battery as a swap. You come in the next day with your 6-month old, nurtured battery that has 3,000 miles and never a range charge and swap it out for my old one.

But what if you could ALWAYS swap out your battery, though?.... So if you thought you got a "bad" battery in a swap, you knew you could just swap it out again a month or two later, or whatever?... That not only mitigates that worry (of trading a good battery for a bad one), but then it makes swapping about even MORE than just swapping out a battery for range. Because being able to swap batteries is effectively like getting a lifetime warranty on your car's battery.... Isn't another "concern" about the car its battery life?... Don't all the naysayers speculate that if you need to replace your battery when it dies, it will cost you a fortune?... Well, if you can always just go do a battery swap, then you never have to worry about that. Of course, we're all just speculating on the specifics of the battery swap deal, and I'm not a Tesla owner (yet), but if I Tesla is allowing people to swap out a battery for range, then by default, aren't they thereby allowing me to swap out ANY battery, effectively giving me a lifetime guarantee on my current battery (i.e. if it goes bad, I'll just drive to a swap out center and swap it out).

 

[Larry Chanin]

With the Super Chargers being built I do not think that it would make sense for Tesla to also build a network of battery swapping stations. Expensive up front and I doubt they would be used much considering the average Model S owner would only use a Super Charger a couple times a year if they go on a trip or perhaps once every couple of months for shopping at large malls.

What does make sense would be these battery swapping stations to be available at service centers. If Tesla puts out a 500 mile battery pack, the owner would have the option of paying for an upgrade to that new battery pack and it could be done within a few minutes. Also, I believe that Elon Musk mentioned being able to swap a battery for a used one on long trips and then pick up your old battery on the way home. Service centers would allow for the storage space and perhaps a rental fee without building more infrastructure/swap stations.

Say I was planning a trip from Philadelphia to Richmond,Virginia. I could make an appointment at the Service Center in Washington to swap my battery out for a 500-mile battery pack. I get to the Service Center and it takes 3 minutes to get the new pack in and continue to drive to Richmond. That new pack will last long enough for all of the driving around I do in Richmond and for the driving back to the Washington Service Center. I tell Tesla I am returning in 2 days and I make another appointment to pick up my old battery pack and drive home, back to Philadelphia. I only have to stop that one time for a couple of minutes which is just like stopping for gas. That could give me 600-700miles for only stopping once. Even if I decided to drive more miles then that, I would be able to take advantage of the local Super Charger. The only thing I have not figured out is a rental cost for the battery. Would that be something that is tacked on to the car cost like the $2000 Super Charger access? The batteries could work like the loaner cars, if I want to keep that new 500-mile battery pack I would just have to pay the cost difference.

Just trying to look at this from a business standpoint because like I stated previously, a new network of battery swapping stations would be expensive. The way I proposed would only need the battery swapping station inside the Service Center.

I expressed a similar thought in posting #346 speculating on a slightly larger 103 kWh battery upgrade.

However, for a 500 mile battery that would require a break-through in battery technology to increase the energy density by more than 90% to permit fitting the battery cells in the same battery pack container. That major development would of course overshadow any mere battery swapping demonstration. :wink:

Larry

 

[ShortSlaver]

Is Li-Ion even the best battery tech for a swap-based battery scheme?

 

[Palpatine]

But what if you could ALWAYS swap out your battery, though?.... So if you thought you got a "bad" battery in a swap, you knew you could just swap it out again a month or two later, or whatever?...

but but but... you can't do that. It actually costs money to produce battery packs. Tesla is not going to give you a new one every time you have a "feeling". If there is hard data that you got a bad battery pack, it is covered. But this is not a charity. Battery packs cost real money and any battery swap scheme is going to cost you.

That not only mitigates that worry (of trading a good battery for a bad one), but then it makes swapping about even MORE than just swapping out a battery for range. Because being able to swap batteries is effectively like getting a lifetime warranty on your car's battery....

And Tesla is going to give that to you for free also? When is this company ever supposed to make a profit?

 

[mitch672]

I expressed a similar thought in posting #346 speculating on a slightly larger 103 kWh battery upgrade.

However, for a 500 mile battery that would require a break-through in battery technology to increase the energy density by more than 90% to permit fitting the battery cells in the same battery pack container. That major development would of course overshadow any mere battery swapping demonstration. :wink:

Larry

Larry, you mean like a combination lithium ion/metal air battery in the same enclosure? Hmm, nope, haven't heard any rumors of that possibility

 

[Larry Chanin]

Larry, you mean like a combination lithium ion/metal air battery in the same enclosure? Hmm, nope, haven't heard any rumors of that possibility

Hi Mitch,

So is that your prediction for June 20th? That instead of a simple battery swapping demonstration, Elon is going to overshadow that with an announcement of the adoption of a new ground-breaking battery chemistry? :wink:

Larry

 

[Soundart]

but but but... you can't do that. It actually costs money to produce battery packs. Tesla is not going to give you a new one every time you have a "feeling". If there is hard data that you got a bad battery pack, it is covered. But this is not a charity. Battery packs cost real money and any battery swap scheme is going to cost you.



And Tesla is going to give that to you for free also? When is this company ever supposed to make a profit?

Relax, dude. I'm not sitting here advocating Tesla give away anything for free. Or advocating ANYTHING specific, for that matter. (If I said "give", I meant it more euphemistically). All I'm throwing out there is the idea that IF there is some kind of swap -- whether it be free or for a fee or for a monthly stipend or whatever -- then what precludes people from swapping anytime they want (i.e. when their battery gets old)?... Obviously the devil is in the details, and I'm sure there will be some details forthcoming.