June 20th Speculation

[mitch672]

Hi Mitch,

So is that your prediction for June 20th? That instead of a simple battery swapping demonstration, Elon is going to overshadow that with an announcement of the adoption of a new ground-breaking battery chemistry? :wink:

Larry

I have 2 theories:

#1 Teslas "Swapper" isn't actually removing the battery pack, but plugging into direct DC ports on the rear of the pack (next to where the motor / inverter plugs in), then they've come up with some kind of "Hyper charger" that needs a direct connection to the pack, because the current connector cannot handle the current. They may use some kind of DC battery bank and equipment to dump the charge in very quickly, the robot unplugs the connection and you drive off.

#2 if Tesla does actually have a battery swapping robot, they have something compelling to swap in, and make it worthwhile, such as the new metal air / lithium combo 500 mile range pack.

Btw, I think #1 is more likely, since there is far less mechanical complexity involved, and they are not moving packs around, just electrons.

 

[gameon]

wow after all battery swapping announcement.

I remember during shareholder meeting he denied this,when someone ask him about it (specifically that investor mention about battery swapping..forgot the details)

 

[toastypasta]

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk15m
Battery pack swap works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there.

 

[moltenfire]

Elon Musk ‏@elonmusk15m
Battery pack swap works with all Tesla Model S cars, past and present. It was always there.

Okay, so it's always been under our nose. Why is he letting the bag out now? Could it be because he's forced to, after the file name on the email invite already gave it away?

 

[fastcars]

Right now, every announcement looks like towards creating buzz (marketing etc..) and boosting stock market :smile:

 

[Stoneymonster]

wow after all battery swapping announcement.

I remember during shareholder meeting he denied this,when someone ask him about it (specifically that investor mention about battery swapping..forgot the details)

He didn't really deny it, it was more clear he was trying not to answer given they had something to show later in the month.

 

[Rla]

Okay, so it's always been under our nose. Why is he letting the bag out now? Could it be because he's forced to, after the file name on the email invite already gave it away?

It has been a known fact that the battery was designed to be swappable.
cfr Beta event: Elon says that the battery is installed by a robot in the factory, in under a minute.
and Stanford webinar with Dave Duff - skip to after 1:00:00, 4 guys swapping a battery in under 10 minutes.
Stanford Seminar - Dave Duff, Telsa Motors - YouTube
So this will just be the first public and live demonstration.

Now in order for the announcement not to backfire or even be a non-event, they either need to announce a business model that will go with it or...

I'm blissfully speculating that all batteries are the same capacity, they are all 85kWh and they are just being limited by the software of the car.

This would greatly increase the value of any Model S, and simplify any future logistics for possible swapping stations.

edit: actually is there any official evidence about Tesla talking about how many cells a 60kWh pack has. I can only remember the statement of a 85 kWh pack having "more than 7000" cells. And a thread here from some clever reverse 'engineering' the number of cells for the 60 pack.

 

[aznt1217]

Can't we just weigh the cars... the heavier one is the 85kWh pack? Interestingly enough there is only 1 weight listed on the Tesla Motors site.

It has been a known fact that the battery was designed to be swappable.
cfr Beta event: Elon says that the battery is installed by a robot in the factory, in under a minute.
and Stanford webinar with Dave Duff - skip to after 1:00:00, 4 guys swapping a battery in under 10 minutes.
Stanford Seminar - Dave Duff, Telsa Motors - YouTube
So this will just be the first public and live demonstration.

Now in order for the announcement not to backfire or even be a non-event, they either need to announce a business model that will go with it or...

I'm blissfully speculating that all batteries are the same capacity, they are all 85kWh and they are just being limited by the software of the car.

This would greatly increase the value of any Model S, and simplify any future logistics for possible swapping stations.

edit: actually is there any official evidence about Tesla talking about how many cells a 60kWh pack has. I can only remember the statement of a 85 kWh pack having "more than 7000" cells. And a thread here from some clever reverse 'engineering' the number of cells for the 60 pack.

 

[Soflason]

This article discusses June 20th a bit:
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Model S battery swaps, demo coming this week

In this article, they mention that: "He [Elon] also tweeted that Better Place founder Shai Agassi 'actually got the idea from a visit to Tesla. The idea is obvious (many things allow battery swap), but the technology is not.'"

And after watching this timed demo on pack swap (using the old Better Place approach), it's hard to imagine Tesla hasn't improved on it. Even without much improvement, this swap is fast.

 

[aznt1217]

Never seen that tech demo before. I just knew that it was similar to going into something like a car wash. I think that's the bothersome part, the fact that this method is capitally intensive. Hopefully Elon has figured out a way to get this thing done cheaply.

This article discusses June 20th a bit:
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Model S battery swaps, demo coming this week

In this article, they mention that: "He [Elon] also tweeted that Better Place founder Shai Agassi 'actually got the idea from a visit to Tesla. The idea is obvious (many things allow battery swap), but the technology is not.'"

And after watching this timed demo on pack swap (using the old Better Place approach), it's hard to imagine Tesla hasn't improved on it. Even without much improvement, this swap is fast.

 

[deonb]

Never seen that tech demo before. I just knew that it was similar to going into something like a car wash. I think that's the bothersome part, the fact that this method is capitally intensive. Hopefully Elon has figured out a way to get this thing done cheaply.

Well, Elon just mentioned $50m to $100m to do this across the country (meaning at the 200 SuperCharger locations).

So that's $250k to $500k per location. I think it's a little cheaper than Better Place but not by a huge margin.

 

[Palpatine]

Never seen that tech demo before. I just knew that it was similar to going into something like a car wash. I think that's the bothersome part, the fact that this method is capitally intensive. Hopefully Elon has figured out a way to get this thing done cheaply.

I saw that demo a few years ago when Better Place was promoting this scam. It was immediately obvious that it would never scale and be crazy expensive.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, Elon just mentioned $50m to $100m to do this across the country (meaning at the 200 SuperCharger locations).

So that's $250k to $500k per location. I think it's a little cheaper than Better Place but not by a huge margin.

Even at that price to Tesla, there are the issues of price to a Model S owner. And this entire battery swap scheme is competing with a free Supercharger at the same location. So what would you be willing to pay for battery swap?

Here are questions I want to here answers to during the Q&A:
1) What does it cost?
2) Is it a per use fee?
3) Is it a subscription?
4) Is there a long term contract associated with participating in the battery swap scheme?
5) Will there also be a free Supercharger at each Battery Swap location?
6) Does Tesla get free/cheap rent for a battery swap location? or does Tesla have to buy the land and build buildings?
7) Is the process 100% fully automated or does Tesla have to employ staff to be on site at a battery swap station?
8) What happens if there is an error in the middle of the process? Will Tesla have a loaner Model S for customers to use to continue their trip?

 

[hershey101]

Okay, so it's always been under our nose. Why is he letting the bag out now? Could it be because he's forced to, after the file name on the email invite already gave it away?

Can you post the email invite on the fourms for those of us who didn't get it/aren't attending the event?

 

[aznt1217]

Can you post the email invite on the fourms for those of us who didn't get it/aren't attending the event?

battery swapping confirmed - no more announcement

post #8

 

[MikeC]

Okay, so if this is at the design studio, it doesn't require much infrastructure unless they built something since I was there last week. I think maybe it is a mobile swapper, like a special flatbed, that can switch it out quickly. Benefits: ZEV credit, solve the rent/overhead problem, help out with any Broders, and enable rangers to do anything necessary remotely.

 

[deonb]

Okay, so if this is at the design studio, it doesn't require much infrastructure unless they built something since I was there last week. I think maybe it is a mobile swapper, like a special flatbed, that can switch it out quickly. Benefits: ZEV credit, solve the rent/overhead problem, help out with any Broders, and enable rangers to do anything necessary remotely.

It's not mobile. It will be co-locates with SuperChargers. See Elons Reuters interview today on:
battery swapping confirmed - no more announcement - Page 9

Post #90

 

[Palpatine]

It's not mobile. It will be co-locates with SuperChargers. See Elons Reuters interview today on:
battery swapping confirmed - no more announcement - Page 9

Post #90

He said that they are NOT rolling out stations unless there is customer demand for it.

At 23 min 05 sec he basically said it will only be demand driven.
So if there are enough suckers willing to pay for a fast swap compared to the free Supercharger, then Tesla will spend the roughly $500,000 to install a swap station.

http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/l...lOWFiMC01MzMxLTRjMTYtYmRlZS05MjNlMWFhZjgwZmM=

 

[Citizen-T]

I've been talking about this for a few days on my battery swap is coming thread, but for those that haven't read it: I suspect that the cost to participate in the battery swap program is the exact same fee previously announced for the battery replacement program. That is to say that the battery replacement program IS the battery swap program.

See the existing thread for details.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD

 

[Palpatine]

I've been talking about this for a few days on my battery swap is coming thread, but for those that haven't read it: I suspect that the cost to participate in the battery swap program is the exact same fee previously announced for the battery replacement program. That is to say that the battery replacement program IS the battery swap program.

See the existing thread for details.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD

Great, that will make it easy to avoid. My big concern is that they might try to bake the battery swap scheme into the price of the car and force everyone to subsidize it.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The whole reason for battery swapping is its speed, but how long will it take you to drive to the place where they do the swap? If the swapping stations were at a density to justify their existence, the up-front cost and logistics would be prohibitive. The service obviously wouldn't be free, and there would be the issue of differing quality between the swapped batteries. I can't see how this would be better than supercharging.

Volume. A swap station can handle more cars. So:
- You put them in busy Supercharger areas in place of adding multiple spaces
- You put them in urban areas where space and charging are at a premium
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