All I ever heard was that they were doing overtime (and 7/7) and are improving production rates as they go.
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Latest "Finalize your order" date
- Thread starter joefee
- Start date
artsci
Sponsor
OMG
I'm P#9,094 - haven't gotten my email yet and no "Finalize" button on the My Tesla page either.... I'm hanging on the edge of my seat!!
I'm all ready to go and hit that Finalize button -- just decided to add the Air Suspension to my config since I'd probably miss not having it *and* the fact that a few people mentioned that it would change the est. delivery to "Early 2013" from Feb/March....
Aaron
I'm P#9,094 - haven't gotten my email yet and no "Finalize" button on the My Tesla page either.... I'm hanging on the edge of my seat!!
I'm all ready to go and hit that Finalize button -- just decided to add the Air Suspension to my config since I'd probably miss not having it *and* the fact that a few people mentioned that it would change the est. delivery to "Early 2013" from Feb/March....
Aaron
artsci
Sponsor
Aaron,
Great to meet you in New York. I was very surprised to receive the notice to finalize my order, as I expected that I'd be in the next wave. But it appears the "waves" are small and continuous now. Your number is not that far behind mine, so I'm confident you'll hear soon.
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If it's's any consolation, the longer until you get it the better. Soon as you finalize, your $5k isn't refundable which means you have less flexibility in the event of a financial emergency. They're asking for finalizations 6 months in advance right now. Given their original state goal was finalizing about 3 months ahead of time, I'm not sure what's changed. Especially since people being asked to finalize now should be receiving their cars well past the point Tesla is at the 20k/year run rate.
I don't know if I am understanding you on this one. Tesla is quoting those that just finalized a Feb/Mar delivery which is 3-4 months not 6 months. Could there be individual hangups for a few GP, sure, but Tesla is shooting for well under 6 months for delivery.
True, but date quotes haven't been worth much so far. Folks at P9000 have 9000+ cars ahead of them (Some US Sigs still, R's, Canadian Sigs, mix in Canadian Ps). Even at a 20k/year run rate that's 5+ months away.
kinddog
Banned
do the 1,000 sigs count in that number?
i.e. i'm P10,340. does that mean 10,339 people are ahead of me total? or that there are 10,339 productions and 1,000 signatures ahead of me (11,339 total)?
mnx
2018 M3P
The following are ahread of you:
1200 NA Sigs
~400 US "R" reservations
10339 US "P" reservations (MINUS CANCELATIONS)
European Sigs?? (too lazy to look up the #)
By the that point the 40s and 60s are supposed to be in production, so there won't be any line jumping anymore based on battery size. If you're somewhere under maybe P5000 an 85kwh (pure guess) might get to line jump, but past a certain point they won't be giving preferential treatment on battery size.Emphasis just in case that excellent variable was missed. Also, you might consider minus 60,40kWh, unless, of course, you are one
kevincwelch
Active Member
If that's the case, that's great.
But, let's say Tesla has all signature cars delivered by December 1st and they suddenly switch to 400 cars/week. That suggests that my car (8995) would be finished (not delivered) in May. (8995/1600m = 5.6 months from now).
Unless I'm missing something here -- other than possible cancellations and deferments -- that seems to be the timetable.
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Sounds right, though you have to consider 2 more factors:
1) Upgrades (P → S)
2) Second shift output (unknown)
Any quantitative estimates of those are just WAGs at this point, but Elon has several times spoken of a rate >20K by the end of January. So:
-- the 8995 numerator of your ratio is likely at least 2000 high (total cancellations have been around 4,000 actually)
-- the 1600 denominator is likely too low (~4.3 wks/mo, and production >400 wk)
The modified WAG is thus ~7000/2200 =~ 3.2 mo = end Feb. Production date, not delivery.
kevincwelch
Active Member
Good point. Canadian as well? Also, one factor that could work in my favor would be the number of 60kWh and 40kWh orders that would be put into production later than 85KWH models.
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I think there are 2 things at play:
1. Tesla has fully decided to increase production beyond 20,000 run rate, probably to 600+ week and just hasn't announced yet. based on reservations they basically need to do this.
2. They are sending finalize e-mails to very high P #'s because any car that involves ONE of the following: 40kw, non air suspension, red cars, deferrments (due to various factors like not being able to test drive yet), and obviously cancellations (should be a relatively high number because these are the oldest reservations - more time for things in life to change) are out of the next 3 - 4 months of build. That's a very significant number. In fact the next round of April/May might involve a much smaller increase in P#'s as most of the above that were skipped come back into the production line.
1. Tesla has fully decided to increase production beyond 20,000 run rate, probably to 600+ week and just hasn't announced yet. based on reservations they basically need to do this.
2. They are sending finalize e-mails to very high P #'s because any car that involves ONE of the following: 40kw, non air suspension, red cars, deferrments (due to various factors like not being able to test drive yet), and obviously cancellations (should be a relatively high number because these are the oldest reservations - more time for things in life to change) are out of the next 3 - 4 months of build. That's a very significant number. In fact the next round of April/May might involve a much smaller increase in P#'s as most of the above that were skipped come back into the production line.
I actually think this is looking too deep into Tesla's needs. Tesla is dealing with new suppliers, and new parts production schedules. They have NO prior ordering history. They NEED to know how many coil springs versus air springs to buy, they NEED to know how many HID headlamps to order versus halogen headlamps. They NEED to know how many Pano roofs to make versus solid roofs. They NEED to know all of the options real life frequency rates. So they can order them, have the supplier (even if it is Tesla internally) ramp up production and then deliver them.
The deeper Tesla goes into finalize emails the better they can order. They have less inventory, they get their suppliers expecting a constant amount each month (500 every month versus 1000 one month then none). This gets their supply chain stable, and thus reliable.
As someone who orders industrial equipment all the time you would be amazed how long it takes to get things ordered. And if you need hundreds it takes even more time.
Omer
Thats exactly my feelings as well and would make some of these Feb/March estimates for high P numbers believable....
Aaron
Thats exactly my feelings as well and would make some of these Feb/March estimates for high P numbers believable....
Aaron
that all is very reasonable and would certainly make sense for this next large batch of production cars since they have no history to go on in predicting quantities. Later rounds are easier to predict based on the distribution of the initial builds. The only thing that would support it more for the reasons I stated is that all these P#'s are getting estimates of Feb/March. If they were really just using a larger sample for their ramp up period with suppliers then they would basically be finalizing multiple batches and some would be getting March/April or April/May dates. In other words Tesla would ask the next 6 months production for their builds to prepare suppliers. It looks like they aren't doing that, this really is the builds for the first 3 months of the year. It's possible Tesla is being purposefully deceptive and just giving Feb/march windows to high P#'s with no intention of delivering in that time frame just to get their finalized builds to use for supplier info but I don't get the sense that they are intentionally misleading.
The Demands of the Demand
Which is why doubters were so sure of their case, and some still are. The fattening order book is vital to survival and success, but of course "demand" has two senses. We are watching TM deal with them both.
They are trying to simultaneously maximize reserver and supplier and production needs and priorities, but with crucial data input replaced with WAGs. Mixed with upstream disasters like flooded Filipino factories thrown in to keep it interesting! All makers face the same priorities, but the urgency and "instability" for startups is vastly greater. Multiplied again for auto manufacturers.
Which is why doubters were so sure of their case, and some still are. The fattening order book is vital to survival and success, but of course "demand" has two senses. We are watching TM deal with them both.
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