Looking Forward to the Model 3 Debut

[physicsfita]

Yeah, I wonder if the whole "existing owners get reservation priority" has taken the wind out of everyone's sails. Yesterday there were a lot of people complaining about that, today folks are strangely silent.

That would be me -- the idea that up to 100,000 people get to jump the line means that I can probably kiss any tax credit goodbye. $7500 is a lot of money for me -- I'll go to the store and get a reservation anyway, but if I can't get the credit, I'll be a lot less motivated to get the car sooner. Depending on when the Prius dies, I might just get another Prius -- I can afford that a lot better.

 

[Max*]

the idea that up to 100,000 people get to jump the line means that I can probably kiss any tax credit goodbye.

Someone, somewhere, in the Model 3 forum, did a quick estimate of how many people realistically might be "jumping the line", and I want to say they came up with about 15k people.

 

[Twiglett]

View attachment 167368

THERE's my Turkey

 

[amb3rgris]

the idea that up to 100,000 people get to jump the line means that I can probably kiss any tax credit goodbye.

Where do you get the 100k number? Remember, the tax credit status is based ONLY on US sales. I'm pretty sure all the estimates I've seen don't have total US Tesla owners near 100k.

 

[Max*]

Where do you get the 100k number? Remember, the tax credit status is based ONLY on US sales. I'm pretty sure all the estimates I've seen don't have total US Tesla owners near 100k.

This.

And not all Tesla owners are going to be getting Model 3's
And of the cars sold, some percentage owned more than 1 Tesla (upgraded for AP, have a Model S and a Model X)
And, etc.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I would be getting the EV tax credit, too, if it weren't for those meddling owners!

Well, nobody actually knows at this point.

 

[physicsfita]

Where do you get the 100k number? Remember, the tax credit status is based ONLY on US sales. I'm pretty sure all the estimates I've seen don't have total US Tesla owners near 100k.

I was recalling someone's projection of total US sales by the end of 2017 -- my memory could totally be faulty. I hope it is.

In any event, if I can't get the car in time before my current Prius dies (345,000 miles and counting!), it's looking like another Prius for me. I had thought about a Volt or Bolt, but GM's shenanigans trying to push Tesla out of various markets tells me that GM doesn't think that their cars would fare well in actual competition. I'll trust that assessment.

 

[physicsfita]

Someone, somewhere, in the Model 3 forum, did a quick estimate of how many people realistically might be "jumping the line", and I want to say they came up with about 15k people.

That number seems reasonable, but not terribly reassuring to me.

 

[nienco2]

Details on this "reservation process"? Aside from the previous owner issue is it explained anywhere if the reservation order determines when you get to configure? With a mass market car they are not going to be building cars to individual configurations are they? By definition mass market means the manufacturer isn't building to order so won't we just select finished cars that have the options we want? How about definite word if the deposit is refundable.

 

[amb3rgris]

I was recalling someone's projection of total US sales by the end of 2017 -- my memory could totally be faulty. I hope it is.

In any event, if I can't get the car in time before my current Prius dies (345,000 miles and counting!), it's looking like another Prius for me. I had thought about a Volt or Bolt, but GM's shenanigans trying to push Tesla out of various markets tells me that GM doesn't think that their cars would fare well in actual competition. I'll trust that assessment.

Good point on the 2017 projections. No one knows that, for sure.

But I think that further underlines all the unknowns in this process:
* How long will Tesla allow current owners to get priority reservations?
* How many existing US Tesla owners will there be at that time, and how many will order how many M3's?
* When will Tesla actually hit 200k US sales?
* And what will be the status of M3 production rate when they do?
* What will be the number of orders in each option grouping that determines production order?

I think that if anyone is really counting on the tax rebate to afford the M3, that is a mistake. There are too many variables, especially if that person is expecting to order a lower optioned car.

And I think this also means that it would be foolish for Tesla to try to base any of their planning around the tax credit. Again, too many variables, and I assume they've got bigger problems to tackle. I feel like people are talking like the restaurant analogy from earlier in this thread, where it's Tesla that's giving out "coupons." When that's totally not the case. It's an external program that they have no real control over.

To me it feels like Tesla is doing what they think they need to do for their business, customers, and shareholders. And they are NOT trying to manage or "game" the external US Federal tax program.

 

[vinnie97]

I was recalling someone's projection of total US sales by the end of 2017 -- my memory could totally be faulty. I hope it is.

In any event, if I can't get the car in time before my current Prius dies (345,000 miles and counting!), it's looking like another Prius for me. I had thought about a Volt or Bolt, but GM's shenanigans trying to push Tesla out of various markets tells me that GM doesn't think that their cars would fare well in actual competition. I'll trust that assessment.

How about the shenanigans that Toyota is engaging with their smearing of EVs to bolster their failed FCEV venture? That keeps me from even considering another Toyota anytime soon. While I like that the new Prius gets almost 60 mpg, the Chevies can run on electricity only.

 

[strider]

Details on this "reservation process"? Aside from the previous owner issue is it explained anywhere if the reservation order determines when you get to configure? With a mass market car they are not going to be building cars to individual configurations are they? By definition mass market means the manufacturer isn't building to order so won't we just select finished cars that have the options we want? How about definite word if the deposit is refundable.

I don't understand your question. All cars on the planet are "built to order." The only question is who made the order. In the ICE world a dealer will order some number of cars to hold on their lot. But if you don't like what they have they can order a car to your specifications. Typically you lose some price haggling power here. In the Tesla world they don't have dealers so the customers do the ordering. There are times where a customer cancels an order or there's a gap in the schedule and Tesla will build spec cars to use as loaners at their service centers or demo cars at their stores that are available for sale.

The deposit is absolutely refundable until you press the "Order" button. Well that or if Tesla goes bankrupt. There will be language in the form you fill out when you give them your deposit.

The configure order comment is based on how the Model S and X were done. The order of reservation determines the order in which you're asked to configure and actually "Order" the car. After that Tesla decides production order according to their own needs (geography, parts availability, profit margin, etc).

 

[SageBrush]

When does the IRS timestamp for tax credit purposes ?

Payment in full ?
Car delivery ?
Something else ?

 

[gregincal]

When does the IRS timestamp for tax credit purposes ?

Payment in full ?
Car delivery ?
Something else ?

"For purposes of the 30D credit, a vehicle is not considered acquired prior to the time when title to the vehicle passes to the taxpayer under state law."

Which raises the next question.

By my experience I acquired title when I signed the final papers, which happened at delivery.

 

[physicsfita]

How about the shenanigans that Toyota is engaging with their smearing of EVs to bolster their failed FCEV venture? That keeps me from even considering another Toyota anytime soon. While I like that the new Prius gets almost 60 mpg, the Chevies can run on electricity only.

Yeah, I'm not happy with Toyota there, but at least they're not running to legislatures and asking them to kick the competition out of the state.

Quite a few years ago, I was roped into teaching introductory astronomy. When we would get to the comparative planetology part of the course, we would have a unit on the greenhouse effect. Part of the curriculum involves going over the difference between the greenhouse effect (good) and the anomalous greenhouse effect (the human-driven part). I would always have some student pipe in, "Yeah -- so what car do you drive?" That motivated me to get the lowest-emissions car I could afford that would meet my driving needs. It was great to be able to respond, "A Prius." The response I would usually get back would be something like, "Oh, I guess this is real, then?" Debate usually ended.

The Model 3 is the first EV, if I pinch my pennies, that I could afford that could handle my commute and my long road trips. If it doesn't pan out (my finances change, my current car dies too soon, etc.), the Prius and the Volt seem to be the only low-emission choices that would work. The Bolt wouldn't work for my long road trips because of the lack of any DCFC infrastructure. I figured the Volt would be my Plan B, but GM's bad behavior grates me more than Toyota's, I guess. I certainly respect the view that Toyota shouldn't get support either, but for me it seems the least-bad alternative if the Model 3 doesn't plan out.

 

[Sp4rky]

Someone, somewhere, in the Model 3 forum, did a quick estimate of how many people realistically might be "jumping the line", and I want to say they came up with about 15k people.

I would agree here. I feel like current Model X\S owners probably all wouldn't purchase a Model 3. Also, my big question is would a current owner of a Tesla be able to order a base model 3 and have that take priority over a PXXD version of the 3? I feel like the answer is probably no here and first-time Tesla owners that order the top configuration probably have a good shot at a full tax credit (assuming no major delays). From the comments I've seen, current owners will probably not be ordering 5 PXXD versions of the 3. Probably more like one PXXD.

Then again, maybe I'm just being hopeful as a first time buyer ready to scoop up a PXXD version of the Model 3!

 

[tga]

Quite a few years ago, I was roped into teaching introductory astronomy. When we would get to the comparative planetology part of the course, we would have a unit on the greenhouse effect. Part of the curriculum involves going over the difference between the greenhouse effect (good) and the anomalous greenhouse effect (the human-driven part). I would always have some student pipe in, "Yeah -- so what car do you drive?" That motivated me to get the lowest-emissions car I could afford that would meet my driving needs. It was great to be able to respond, "A Prius." The response I would usually get back would be something like, "Oh, I guess this is real, then?" Debate usually ended.

A year or two ago I read Noel Perrin's Life with an Electric Car. He was an Environmental Studies professor at Dartmouth who had a similar challenge from a student (I think he was driving a pickup then). That resulted in him purchasing a converted Ford Escort from a conversion shop in CA, flying out, and (attempting) to drive home, 50 miles at a time. He couldn't make it over the Rockies, so he bought a rust-free CA pickup, towed the EV back to his home in VT, and sold the pickup. Interesting book.

 

[graphix25]

I

 

[vortexz]

there's no aluminium in Model 3

 

[MassModel3]

there's no aluminium in Model 3

Well certainly it won't be [nearly] all aluminum like the Model S, but I don't expect that to mean there will be no aluminum.