Model 3 Average Selling Price Predictions

[Paul Carter]

I wanted to try and take a first crack on predicting the Average Selling Price (ASP) of the Tesla Model 3 based on the data collected with Model3Tracker.Info thus far. I started with @farzynessAttempting to price out options for Model 3 post and took a spin on it with my guesstimates of pricing to come up with this.

I broke out Tesla owners from the data to see the impact of current ownership on ASP. Looks like current owners may spend about 6.7% more on the Model 3 vs. the general public.

Assumptions

• 30% pricing reductions by economies of scale (including the goal of reducing the battery production costs).
  • Larger battery pricing (also assuming only two sizes)
  • to upgrade from base 60 kWh to a larger 75 kWh battery for the Model X its 9k and 8.5k for S
  • Using 70% of pricing of an S would work out to 5.95k
  • Rear vs. All Wheel Drive, Performance Drive Train, Ludicrous, Paint, Wheels, Décor, Sub Zero, etc.. all based similarly on 70% of the S.
  • Model3Tracker.info is missing Seats, Décor, and high amperage charger configuration options and thus those mixes are my guesstimates (and trying to not throw off the Current owners mix too much.)

Feedback welcomed and appreciated. I'd like to update the model based on general consensus (if we can obtain something like that!).

This is a rough draft and may not be circulated or publicated. ​

 

[BluestarE3]

I guess Elon's $42,000 works for me as a SWAG for the average price of a Model 3, since no one outside of Tesla currently knows the prices for any of the options.

 

[SageBrush]

Interesting table!

There are only a few options that bring in a lot of revenue to Tesla ... or so I kept thinking, until I multiplied by 400,000 ;-)

 

[Paul Carter]

Here's the latest prediction based on current tracker data.
View media item 116174

 

[FirstSea]

Thanks for the analysis.

Now imagine if a fully loaded 3 is less than $82k (which I doubt), time will tell.

 

[davidc18]

65-85k

 

[Sharkbait]

Performance, nicely configured, still > $70K as >70% have already predicted.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'd love if these numbers were close. That would mean I'll have enough in the bank by the end of next month to buy my Model 3 outright at delivery.

And the proceeds from the sale of my current car would go right back into the bank.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I thought this horse was already dead.

 

[nebster]

Never believe the internet.

On car forums - Everyone is "for sure" going to buy it, as long as X, Y and Z are included. Manufacturer creates a vehicle with X, Y and Z, forum posts lament lack of ~. Or, too expensive, I'm going to buy a used 1999 model for $3k.

On Craigslist - Everyone is going to "meet you at 9pm". Show up at 9pm, text the buyer you're there, and then all of a sudden you're having a text conversation with yourself.

On Golf club reviews - Everyone gained "an easy 20-30 yards on their drive" with their new driver. By this point, I should be running for cover on the green on par 5s just in case someone bombs a 500 yard drive.

On the Model 3 configurations - I'm going to spec the car with $30k in options. Oh by the way, I can't afford the car if the $7,500 tax credit disappears. Oh and, I always get a refund on my taxes at the end of the year, does this mean I won't qualify for the tax credit?

Point is - $50K ASP based on prospective buyers playing with an online config is inflated. Actual ASP will be lower.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Never believe the internet.

On car forums - Everyone is "for sure" going to buy it, as long as X, Y and Z are included. Manufacturer creates a vehicle with X, Y and Z, forum posts lament lack of ~. Or, too expensive, I'm going to buy a used 1999 model for $3k.

On Craigslist - Everyone is going to "meet you at 9pm". Show up at 9pm, text the buyer you're there, and then all of a sudden you're having a text conversation with yourself.

On Golf club reviews - Everyone gained "an easy 20-30 yards on their drive" with their new driver. By this point, I should be running for cover on the green on par 5s just in case someone bombs a 500 yard drive.

On the Model 3 configurations - I'm going to spec the car with $30k in options. Oh by the way, I can't afford the car if the $7,500 tax credit disappears. Oh and, I always get a refund on my taxes at the end of the year, does this mean I won't qualify for the tax credit?

Point is - $50K ASP based on prospective buyers playing with an online config is inflated. Actual ASP will be lower.

Which is why Elon already said $42,500

 

[D.E.]

Pricing my model 3, Ludicrous, Autopilot 5, Matte paint, Premium decor, Premium interior, Smart suspension, Ultra high fidelity sound, Leather. I'm new on the reservation list so I doubt any tax incentive will exist by the time mine gets delivered.
$81,150
This is based on Paul Carter's rough draft spreadsheet with the new Autopilot information added.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Which is why Elon already said $42,500

Where did he say that? Do you have a link?

 

[Garlan Garner]

Pricing my model 3, Ludicrous, Autopilot 5, Matte paint, Premium decor, Premium interior, Smart suspension, Ultra high fidelity sound, Leather. I'm new on the reservation list so I doubt any tax incentive will exist by the time mine gets delivered.
$81,150
This is based on Paul Carter's rough draft spreadsheet with the new Autopilot information added.

View attachment 199356

This is incorrect for many reasons. Tesla does not price their cars like this.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Where did he say that? Do you have a link?

Musk: Tesla Model 3 Average Selling Price To Be $42,000, Update: 232K Deposits In

 

[Garlan Garner]

Musk: Tesla Model 3 Average Selling Price To Be $42,000, Update: 232K Deposits In

That's an Average Selling price. Not the base price. An average means there are prices below and above.

Now if every car ( even the 35K m3) car comes with the hardware....then they aren't charging for the hardware on the $35K base price M3. .

 

[ModelNforNerd]

That's an Average Selling price. Not the base price. An average means there are prices below and above.

Now if every car ( even the 35K m3) car comes with the hardware....then they aren't charging for the hardware on the $35K base price M3. .

that's exactly what i was referring to.

I never said the base price would be $42,500. My comment was in reply to someone else's comment about...

Point is - $50K ASP based on prospective buyers playing with an online config is inflated. Actual ASP will be lower.

wait for it....ASP.

Average Sale Price.

 

[D.E.]

This is incorrect for many reasons. Tesla does not price their cars like this.

So what's your best guess for a model 3 configured this way?

 

[D.E.]

Tesla prices cars exactly like this. The only question is the estimates used where the official price hasn't been announced. Now that I have a ballpark price, I need to figure out whether to go with a Self Drive S60D now or a very much quicker Self Drive Model 3 in about two years. Using the Model 3 estimate of $81,150 with no energy credit against the S60D with the $7500 energy credit, I'm looking at an S60D price of $83,000.

About 2 weeks ago Tesla removed white as a base color option so now the only non premium color available is black. The closest to white is now the white pearl coat, a $1500 option, that's priced in.

 

[Zaphod]

This is incorrect for many reasons. Tesla does not price their cars like this.

There is no "correct" or "incorrect" at this point because there is no finalized, definite pricing. No one said it was accurate and gospel at this point. BUT I think most of us can argue that those prices seem to make sense and best approximations that can be made at this time.

Sure, will things be bundled together, will things be cheaper, will things be more expensive? Of course. We don't have a crystal ball or time machine that can give us the answers we want, so assumptions and best judgment is prudent at this point. Best we can do.

D.E., in my opinion your spec build and estimated price of $81.5K should be close, using the assumptions we are using now. Give or take a few thousand, but don't see being substantially off.