Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[melindav]

@melindav, it already works like this. The 21,053 numbers is for the entire USA. The global number is 36,449 Tesla owners on 1 Sep 2017 when Model 3 production starts. You might say, shouldn't it be just 7%? Isn't 36,449 a little too high? No, because 7% is the percentage of reservation holders who have a Tesla. Tesla mentioned the 7% on 4 May 2016 earnings call. At that time global reservations were 359,445 units. 7% of that is 25,161 people.

On 4 May 2016, Tesla's global fleet was 129,980 units. In other words, out of 129,980 Tesla owners, 25,161 had placed a Model 3 reservation. That's 19.4%. On 1 Sep 2017, when Model 3 production starts, Tesla's global fleet will be 271,077 units and I calculated that 36,449 of those will be Model 3 reservation holders.

I didn't take issue with your 21k estimate of current owner reservations, but that the calculator was placing all 21k of those before all non-owner reservations.

"In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region..... When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east." - Tesla blog from March​

I took this to mean that a region is "west coast", not the entire United States, so a non owner reservation in Northern California would be invited to configure before an owner in Chicago.

 

[Troy]

Hi @melindav,

I thought about that but I don't think West Coast, East Coast etc refers to regions. So what are regions? I think the following sentence I highlighted in the same blog post gives a clue:

In order to be as fair as possible, there will be a different queue for each region. And as a thank you to our current owners, existing customers will get priority in each region.

Model 3 production is scheduled to begin in late 2017. When production begins, we will begin deliveries in North America starting on the West Coast, moving east. As we continue to ramp production, we will begin deliveries in Europe, APAC and right-hand drive markets. It is not possible to ship to all regions simultaneously because regulators in each part of the world have slightly different production requirements. Staggering deliveries in this way also allows us to provide the best possible customer experience.

Regions have different production start dates because they have slightly different production requirements because of regulations. Based on that definition, I came up with 7 different regions:

1. USA
2. Canada
3. Europe (excluding the UK)
4. China or Hong Kong
5. Australia or New Zealand
6. UK
7. Japan

If that's the correct definition then Model X production start dates for these regions would have been different as well. Were they? I checked that too. They were different. For example, Europe Model X deliveries started on 30th June 2016 (Source) but UK deliveries haven't started yet. If Tesla had said that Model S owners would get their Model X first, right now some UK buyers would complain that non-owners elsewhere in Europe are getting their Model X before UK owners.

To avoid that, Tesla would explain that owner priorities apply only within the regional queue, which is exactly what they have done for Model 3. Therefore the UK must be a region and the rest of the Europe must be another region.

 

[grashelm]

At the bottom it says - Tax credits info (scroll to right end) - When I scroll the right end i find no tax credit info.

 

[Troy]

@grashelm,

I changed the wording:
Tax credits info (click here & scroll right)

 

[WhiteCap]

I predict that some people will use this tool and then get upset when they don't get their Model 3 on the "estimated" date.
Carry on...

You are probably right - but in the absence of any *official* Model 3 news of any kind lately - Troy gets a thumbs up for providing entertainment!

 

[ModelNforNerd]

@ModelNforNerd,
I agree. I should add that too. Yesterday, I searched for that and found the data source HERE. But I'm not sure how to implement it. Can you comment on what kind of delays you would expect for different trim levels? For example, how does this look like:

Model / Delays in days
Model 3 P75D / 0 days
Model 3 75D / 14 days
Model 3 55D / 28 days
Model 3 55 / 28 days

It's fun and entertaining, and I hope not too overly-optimistic (as in, I hope the dates actually work out the way they do on your calculator).

But for now.....we wait.

 

[Booga]

I haven't spent much time in the spreadsheet, but what is your assumption for production rates and the ramp up?

 

[shrspeedblade]

For my own peace of mind, I add in a +6 month modifier to the estimate, meaning about July 2018. That way I'll either be impressed with my fortunetelling ability or pleasantly surprised!

 

[Sparky22]

Great job Troy, but I don't think you can group Canada to one order, I don't think it would make sense to to ship cars to Vancouver and Toronto in same group but rather let's say Pennsylvania NY and Ontario and so on.

 

[tsla007]

Given the fact that I ordered in the first 2 hrs and on the east coast-I'd expect to be the second batch to east coast (right after all those who have an S before preunveil in my area). There are so many factors right now that could cause delays/lithium/gf/production line failures/not enough employees working the lines/not 24/7 production/the list just goes on and on.
Again, I love this tool/ calculator attempt-but, this probably won't even come close to reality. I really think Elon will hold 115k cars so all those who preordered get the max fed tax incentives. They will ship all these out in 4/5 months.Do I care about 4 or 5 months wait when that wait could give me next battery size for free? Not really. I'll get my car when I get my car. No way will I get a GM. Only honda/toyota/porsche have my bid of anything other than a Tesla.
As for Regions-Of course west coast is closest-easy repeat trucking-cheapest.
This is what he'll try to save on-shipping/destination fees. I suggested autocharging.
When you order your car you can tell Tesla to have to car drive to your house using autopilot and
robotic SC. This would diminish any need of a destination charge/shipping charge! The car always stays locked-no one can get in the car until it reaches destination where it stays locked until the owner gets the fob to unlock or tells Tesla car received and then they unlock the car. I'm sure this is
being worked on.
Loyality begets loyality!

 

[ummgood]

This is what he'll try to save on-shipping/destination fees. I suggested autocharging.
When you order your car you can tell Tesla to have to car drive to your house using autopilot and
robotic SC. This would diminish any need of a destination charge/shipping charge! The car always stays locked-no one can get in the car until it reaches destination where it stays locked until the owner gets the fob to unlock or tells Tesla car received and then they unlock the car. I'm sure this is
being worked on.
Loyality begets loyality!

I can almost guarentee this won't happen. People want their car pristine when they first get it. Having it drive itself cross country is begging to have some damage happen to the car. I have driven from Cali to Texas more than 5 times and I almost always get some kind of damage on that trip. Either a cracked windsheld (happened this last December) or major paint chips. Then the customer would want Tesla to fix or depending on the severity of the damage replace parts of the car to bring it pristine again. Until they figure out how to deliver the car this way and have 0 damage there is too much liability. Once the car is delivered then it is your responsibility to keep it pristine not Tesla.

 

[dsvick]

This is what he'll try to save on-shipping/destination fees. I suggested autocharging.
When you order your car you can tell Tesla to have to car drive to your house using autopilot and
robotic SC. This would diminish any need of a destination charge/shipping charge! The car always stays locked-no one can get in the car until it reaches destination where it stays locked until the owner gets the fob to unlock or tells Tesla car received and then they unlock the car. I'm sure this is
being worked on.

Possibly, but I sure wouldn't go for it, first there is all the potential for common every day wear and tear from the road, then there is the fact that people are jerks. All they need to do is see a driverless car parked at a SC or stopped at a light and they'll treat it the same as they this poor guy: Hitchhiking robot’s cross-country journey comes to tragic end in Philadelphia

 

[ggies07]

I don't think this works.....I put in my info and says I won't get mine until Spring of 2018, but I reserved in the afternoon before the reveal. That's in the 115,000 count before the event started and Elon estimates 100,000-200,000 production at the end of next year, so.....I would say I would get mine at the latest by January.

 

[djplong]

I don't know how you calculate "Country specific reservation number" and come up with 151,087 for me. I was there in line first thing in the morning. Elon announced just over 100,000 reservations at 10PM Eastern Time (my time). I figure I'm at LEAST in the first 50,000.

 

[Troy]

I haven't spent much time in the spreadsheet, but what is your assumption for production rates and the ramp up?

Hi Booga. I used two data sources:
1. Elon said 100,000-200,000 Model 3's in 2017 (Source)
This looked a little optimistic to me. I used 64,000 in my calculations.

2. Tesla said they will make 500,000/year by the end of 2018 (Source, first bullet point on top of page 1)
Based on this I calculated that, in order to reach 500K/year at the end of Q4 2018, Model 3 production needs to be 93,500 units in that quarter. I distributed quarterly production numbers as follows:

Q3 2017 16,000
Q4 2017 48,000
Q1 2018 62,000
Q2 2018 72,000
Q3 2018 91,000
Q4 2018 93,500

If you want to see a detailed picture, click HERE and scroll to the right until you see a column called Model 3.

 

[Troy]

Great job Troy, but I don't think you can group Canada to one order, I don't think it would make sense to ship cars to Vancouver and Toronto in same group but rather let's say Pennsylvania NY and Ontario and so on.

Hi, Sparky. Canada cars have different hardware. Therefore their shipping dates won't correlate to USA regions. For example, Model X Canada deliveries started on 2nd June 2016 (Source), at least 68 days after the USA.

 

[tsla007]

Hi Troy-to be 500k/yr build rate you need 125k quarter or 44k/mo. Perhaps you're being too conservative??? Or you don't think Elon can do it.
Like Elon said-base models will be shipped quickest as they are easier/faster to build. Unless the upgrades are batteries or software-this doesn't cause any more time to the build-One could argue that all cars will be built in the same amount of time-I don't work in the factory so I don't really know.
Auto Suspensions/tow hitch/custom tires/Pano roof/etc just add more time to build????? Not sure. Now it depends the robots and the robots depend on the tech who's human who programmed them and calibrated them and how fast the cars move along the production lines.
So-I'd expect a base model 55d or whatever will be made about 10% slower than a base 55. The dual motor drive train will take longer.
Yeah, people want to boast into profits of extras but really-the more cars that hit the roads faster the more it will spur interest and maybe more orders. It's a never ending battle. But I go back to what elon tweeted back in April-options don't matter for delivery position. I think many of these maxed out late orders will be disappointed by the wait time after waiting a whole 1.5yrs is just hilarious and to be later in the delivery queue-because of when they ordered - not what they ordered. Oh well.... the waiting goes on and I'm not in any hurry. I know I've ordered as fast as I could just because I would like one - 5 months more to me is nothing after waiting 1.5 yrs. All in all-you've done the best estimating you could which is exactly what you have built. Going home in my S.
I personally wouldn't have wasted my time on building this estimator, but hey-kudos to you for your efforts. I do think the margin of error might be 6 months from this calculator, but no one really knows. Maybe Elon plans to be the first person to Mars-well, that won't affect
model 3 but it might for the truck or next super car and or the company who might buy Tesla out at that point. What I'm excited about is hyperloop. The only thing I see as issues are earthquakes and terrorism. Other than that-it's a great idea and much faster than flying.

 

[Troy]

Elon estimates 100,000-200,000 production at the end of next year, so.....I would say I would get mine at the latest by January.

I think the second number, (the 200K number) Elon mentioned is based on data but the first number is Elon's guess. If you listened to Elon's exact words, he said "in the second half of 2017". The deadline for suppliers is 1 July 2017.

Therefore I think here is what happened:
Elon knows that the production capacity of the factory will be 400K/year Model 3's. Therefore in 6 months, they can make maximum 200,000 Model 3's. However, Elon knows that not all suppliers will be ready on 1st July 2017. He figured maximum delays would be 3 months, so 100K. However, I think Elon overlooked the production ramp up.

If production capacity of Model 3 lines is 400,000/year or 8,000/week, it is hard to imagine a single line. The Model X production line capacity is 2500 units/week and uses hundreds of robots. Therefore my best guess is 4 production lines of 2000 units/week each. It would be difficult and risky to open all production lines at once.

 

[Troy]

I don't know how you calculate "Country specific reservation number" and come up with 151,087 for me. I was there in line first thing in the morning. Elon announced just over 100,000 reservations at 10PM Eastern Time (my time). I figure I'm at LEAST in the first 50,000.

This is the data I'm getting. Can you clarify your delivery location, your reservation day & time and time zone?

USA, Eastern Time
Reservation time: 31 Mar 2016, 10:15 am
Country specific reservation number: 2,802

 

[Troy]

Hi Troy-to be 500k/yr build rate you need 125k quarter or 44k/mo.

I agree with the 500K/year rate at the end of 2018. In fact, this is the number I used in my calculations. Open THIS page, scroll all the way to the right. Near the last few columns, you will see 500,000 in bright blue color. This column shows yearly production rate. If you check the columns before that, you can see that I'm expecting 93,500 Model 3's and 31,500 Model S & X in Q4 2018.