Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

@Troy, Whats your estimate for the production rate now & Jan deliveries ?

Current production rate: 939 units/week
Estimated Jan 2018 deliveries: 2148 units

Both are available as dynamic charts on the spreadsheet. These will auto-update when new VINs are entered:
Model 3 delivery estimates based on VINs reported by buyers
Model 3 production rate per week estimates based on VINs reported by buyers
Model 3 VINs and VIN assignment dates reported by buyers

Its possible Tesla will make less of 3 - so that when they come near 200k, it is closer to Q2 end. In that case they can hold off delivering 3s till Q3.

No, because the estimated count at the end of Q2 2018 is 231,771 units which means their excess is 31,771 units. The Q2 2018 Model 3 delivery estimate is 31,082 units.They would have to stop Model 3 production on 20 March 2018 and not produce a single Model 3 for 3 months. That would cause them to lose most of their suppliers. Some of the suppliers would never work with Tesla again. Most likely Tesla wouldn't be able to continue production for a few months after June because of lack of parts and suppliers.

Thousands of employees they hired at the Gigafactory to produce battery packs and at Fremont to produce cars and at delivery centers to deliver the cars would be doing nothing and they still need to get paid while at the same time Tesla is borrowing more money. At the end of Q2, their weekly Model 3 production rate would be zero instead of 5,000/week they estimated and 3,637/week they are expected to hit based on current data. They would have to do all this for no direct benefit to the company just so more buyers would get $7,500 tax credits instead of $3,750.

 

[Zoomit]

No

Correct answer. I’m sure you’re glad you won’t have to address that again.

...a least until February.

 

[vinnie97]

The current weekly estimate is roughly where they were a month ago. Production hell bottleneckiness (from battery production of all things, despite denial) continues? I best get ready for an April delivery estimate downgrade.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Just a quick note on production. It has stalled based on lack of vins in 7xxx range reports this week. This is the first week it has stalled.

January delivery of~2100 cars seems low. I'd bet they did 2500-3000. Optimistically, they will deliver ~3500.

 

[DriveMe]

their excess is 31,771 units ... They would have to stop Model 3 production on 20 March 2018 and not produce a single Model 3 for 3 months.

No, they would not have to stop the production or even slow down the sales. All they would have to do is to send the excess cars to Canada. A very simple solution!

 

[ℬête Noire]

No, they would not have to stop the production or even slow down the sales. All they would have to do is to send the excess cars to Canada. A very simple solution!

Last paragraph from a post yesterday:

Model 3 delivery estimator

There really isn't any getting around it unless something goes VERY wrong in the factory & production HUGELY underperforms. Which probably doesn't get anyone extra into the rebate program anyway. The best case is if they hit the 200K in the first month of a quarter. *shrug*

 

[DriveMe]

Canada won't work either because they want only 3K RWD and 13K AWD. There is no AWD yet.

You might be right, but there is a lot of uncertainty. Tesla might fall way short of your production estimate for all kinds of reasons, that wouldn’t be a shocker to anyone; you might be underestimating the Canadian demand; no one really knows when the AWD production is going to start exactly...

 

[ℬête Noire]

You might be right, but there is a lot of uncertainty. Tesla might fall way short of your production estimate for all kinds of reasons, that wouldn’t be a shocker to anyone; you might be underestimating the Canadian demand; no one really knows when the AWD production is going to start exactly...

1) If I still lived in Canada I'd wait an extra year for AWD. The one possible exception is if I lived in Vancouver/Victoria area (but not the northern side of Vancouver).
2) You're reaching in all directions with all sorts of hypotheticals that might be true, just very unlikely to be true. That's a pretty good sign it's time to take a breath & step back because it's you desires that are pushing the reasoning.

 

[Troy]

I want to add more information about Canada so people can do calculations if they want to. In 2017, Tesla sold 103,084 Model S/X globally and the Canadians bought 3,478 of them (source) which is 3.4%. I estimate 504,620 active reservations globally. 3.4% would be 17,157. However, Tesla can't ship 17,157 Model 3's to Canada because most of them want AWD.

If we look at the Model3Tracker survey data, 745 out of 932 reservation holders from Canada said they want AWD which is 79.9%. That means only 3,442 RWD Model 3s can be shipped to Canada compared to the ~30K excess they will have at the end of Q2 2018.

January delivery of~2100 cars seems low. I'd bet they did 2500-3000. Optimistically, they will deliver ~3500.

VIN to delivery time was 10 days at the end of January. That means cars that were delivered in January would have their VIN assigned on 21 January 2018 at the latest on average. The VIN trendline shows 4,355 on 21 Jan. However, this includes 1,772 units delivered in 2017 which leaves us with 2,583 units. But the VINs were running 12% ahead of deliveries at the end of Dec. That's why my calculation shows 2,104 deliveries in January. Unfortunately, we won't be able to find out the actual number because Tesla doesn't release monthly numbers.

 

[Neo_fd3s]

I want to add more information about Canada so people can do calculations if they want to. In 2017, Tesla sold 103,084 Model S/X globally and the Canadians bought 3,478 of them (source) which is 3.4%. I estimate 504,620 active reservations globally. 3.4% would be 17,157. However, Tesla can't ship 17,157 Model 3's to Canada because most of them want AWD.

If we look at the Model3Tracker survey data, 745 out of 932 reservation holders from Canada said they want AWD which is 79.9%. That means only 3,442 RWD Model 3s can be shipped to Canada compared to the ~30K excess they will have at the end of Q2 2018.



VIN to delivery time was 10 days at the end of January. That means cars that were delivered in January would have their VIN assigned on 21 January 2018 at the latest on average. The VIN trendline shows 4,355 on 21 Jan. However, this includes 1,772 units delivered in 2017 which leaves us with 2,583 units. But the VINs were running 12% ahead of deliveries at the end of Dec. That's why my calculation shows 2,104 deliveries in January. Unfortunately, we won't be able to find out the actual number because Tesla doesn't release monthly numbers.

I get some people live in sketchy areas of the country which absolutely mandates your vehicle to have AWD. But I live within the GTA (albeit at the out skirts). So many people think they need AWD when they don't. Which is why when I finally get an idea what the incentives is going to entail for this year, I'll probably put a deposit down at the end of this month. I want mine to be RWD. But I don't need the bigger battery pack. I just want the standard car, with premium package and blue paint. That's it.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I get some people live in sketchy areas of the country which absolutely mandates your vehicle to have AWD. But I live within the GTA (albeit at the out skirts). So many people think they need AWD when they don't. Which is why when I finally get an idea what the incentives is going to entail for this year, I'll probably put a deposit down at the end of this month. I want mine to be RWD. But I don't need the bigger battery pack. I just want the standard car, with premium package and blue paint. That's it.

Have you owned an AWD? I lived in Calgary. Not the outskirts, even, about 10 minute drive to downtown. AWD is nice, even without snow on the ground, but I'll tell you I looked forward to snow on the ground. With one of the two banes of AWD gone, lower fuel mileage, and the other muted to a degree, higher cost, it'd be an easy call for me if I still lived there.

 

[schonelucht]

Unfortunately, we won't be able to find out the actual number because Tesla doesn't release monthly numbers.

If the number is positive, it will be mentioned in the shareholder letter (this has happened in the past as well IIRC). If there is no mention of production/delivery numbers in January it's probably so-so and in line with your estimates.

 

[Neo_fd3s]

Have you owned an AWD? I lived in Calgary. Not the outskirts, even, about 10 minute drive to downtown. AWD is nice, even without snow on the ground, but I'll tell you I looked forward to snow on the ground. With one of the two banes of AWD gone, lower fuel mileage, and the other muted to a degree, higher cost, it'd be an easy call for me if I still lived there.

Which is why I started with my statement saying I understand there are some people who live outside of the "center of the universe"

Yes, I've had my fair share of AWD vehicles. I never owned them, but I had to live with them weeks at a time. I'm completely outside the norm when it comes to vehicles. I find AWD vehicles specific to a certain demograph.

I very much prefer my vehicles to be RWD. Regardless of weather conditions.

 

[ElecFan]

If the number is positive, it will be mentioned in the shareholder letter (this has happened in the past as well IIRC). If there is no mention of production/delivery numbers in January it's probably so-so and in line with your estimates.

Elon will probably give a hint at the Q&A webcast in a week. Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Financial Results and Webcast (NASDAQ:TSLA)

 

[ℬête Noire]

Which is why I started with my statement saying I understand there are some people who live outside of the "center of the universe"

"sketchy areas of the country"

Dude, for the sake of your neighbours please don't feed "GTA=assholes" stereotype like that. :/

I find AWD vehicles specific to a certain demograph.

Please go on.

 

[scottysize]

Hey hey. My estimated date has improved by 2 months! Apr 2019 now.

 

[EVNow]

No, because the estimated count at the end of Q2 2018 is 231,771 units which means their excess is 31,771 units.

I got that. I'm just saying - the actuals may be less than estimates (not like it hasn't happened before with Tesla) - in which case we may see 200k hit in Q3.

Insidevs estimates 1,875 for Jan. If there is not a huge ramp up in next 2 months - that may end at about 7k instead of 13k. Larger difference in Q2 - 15k instead of 31k.

Overall we shouldn't be surprised if the ramp up is slower than Tesla's external forecasts.

 

[kengchang]

I got that. I'm just saying - the actuals may be less than estimates (not like it hasn't happened before with Tesla) - in which case we may see 200k hit in Q3.

Insidevs estimates 1,875 for Jan. If there is not a huge ramp up in next 2 months - that may end at about 7k instead of 13k. Larger difference in Q2 - 15k instead of 31k.

Overall we shouldn't be surprised if the ramp up is slower than Tesla's external forecasts.

It's nearly impossible for the 200K to last til Q3.
Q1+Q2 Model S/X - 11K+9K
Q3+Q4 Model S/X - 16K+12K based on last year's number.

If Tesla only manage to produce 20K Model 3 in Jan - June, Tesla is in deep sh*t

 

[EVNow]

It's nearly impossible for the 200K to last til Q3.
Q1+Q2 Model S/X - 11K+9K
Q3+Q4 Model S/X - 16K+12K based on last year's number.

If Tesla only manage to produce 20K Model 3 in Jan - June, Tesla is in deep sh*t

Instead of this estimate ...

Q1 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 12,200 Model 3s
Total = 162,545 + 13,100 + 12,200= 187,845

Q2 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 31,800 Model 3s
Total = 187,845 + 13,100 + 31,800 = 232,745

We would need this. This is what a slower than anticipated ramp up would look like. I don't think Tesla will be in deep trouble with this.

Q1 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 7,000 Model 3s
Total = 162,545 + 13,100 + 7,000= 182,645

Q2 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 10,000 Model 3s
Total = 182,645 + 13,100 + 10,000 = 205,745

BTW, this is what I had calculated based on initial tweets from Musk in jULY '17.

 

[2170pwr]

Tesla.com might be updating the Delivery Estimater (I'm assuming moving back the estimate) currently getting error:

502 Bad Gateway
nginx/1.10.2​