If that estimate is accurate, then it's not totally far-fetched to think that Tesla would play games to ensure that they didn't deliver the 200kth car until the first day of Q3 - which would make the $7500 tax credit last for the full rest of 2018.
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If that estimate is accurate, then it's not totally far-fetched to think that Tesla would play games to ensure that they didn't deliver the 200kth car until the first day of Q3 - which would make the $7500 tax credit last for the full rest of 2018.
Update: In my last message I said 200K day is 19 May 2018. That's not correct. I made a mistake with the calculations. Currently, it shows 25 Apr 2018.
The excess production at the end of Q2 2018 is too high. I don't see any idea that could work but here are the numbers in case people have different ideas:
End of 2017:
162,545 S/X/3/Roadster based on my calculation
160,261 S/X/3/Roadster based on my interpretation of insideEVs' numbers
Q1 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 12,200 Model 3s
Total = 162,545 + 13,100 + 12,200= 187,845
Q2 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 31,800 Model 3s
Total = 187,845 + 13,100 + 31,800 = 232,745
What do you do with the ~33K cars? You can't ship the S/X to Europe because people who want the S/X in Europe are already getting their S/X. Tesla's production is 25K S/X per quarter. 13,100 is only for the US. Not to mention it wouldn't solve the problem anyway even if they stopped S/X deliveries in the US.
You can't ship the Model 3 to Europe because the US and EU cars have different hardware. The plugs and chargers are different. Those are not ready yet. Also, there is something called type approval. I don't think the Model 3 has type approval yet. Tesla says late 2018 for international deliveries. The cars go there partly assembled to avoid import taxes. They need to hire more employees to assemble thousands of more cars.
Canada won't work either because they want only 3K RWD and 13K AWD. There is no AWD yet. Storing 32K cars somewhere is unrealistic because Tesla doesn't have that kind of money. They need to pay suppliers. They borrowed more money a few days ago. See the article here.
The excess production at the end of Q2 2018 is too high. I don't see any idea that could work but here are the numbers in case people have different ideas:
End of 2017:
162,545 S/X/3/Roadster based on my calculation
160,261 S/X/3/Roadster based on my interpretation of insideEVs' numbers
Q1 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 12,200 Model 3s
Total = 162,545 + 13,100 + 12,200= 187,845
Q2 2018: 13,100 Model S/X and 31,800 Model 3s
Total = 187,845 + 13,100 + 31,800 = 232,745
What do you do with the ~33K cars? You can't ship the S/X to Europe because people who want the S/X in Europe are already getting their S/X. Tesla's production is 25K S/X per quarter. 13,100 is only for the US. Not to mention it wouldn't solve the problem anyway even if they stopped S/X deliveries in the US.
You can't ship the Model 3 to Europe because the US and EU cars have different hardware. The plugs and chargers are different. Those are not ready yet. Also, there is something called type approval. I don't think the Model 3 has type approval yet. Tesla says late 2018 for international deliveries. The cars go there partly assembled to avoid import taxes. They need to hire more employees to assemble thousands of more cars.
Canada won't work either because they want only 3K RWD and 13K AWD. There is no AWD yet. Storing 32K cars somewhere is unrealistic because Tesla doesn't have that kind of money. They need to pay suppliers. They borrowed more money a few days ago. See the article here.
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ℬête Noire
Active Member
Agreed that sitting on 1.5B$ of inventory for 2 months, along with enduring the ire provoked by holding back shipment from 30,000 people that have dropped another $2,500, on top of the first $1000, doesn't strike me as tenable.
Just the finding and filling up of 30,000 stalls one-time sounds like a logistic headache.
Just the finding and filling up of 30,000 stalls one-time sounds like a logistic headache.
Dr. J
Active Member
I believe the comment bar is unavailable until you hit a certain number of posts--maybe 10?
ummgood
Member
I think if they hit the 200k in the first month of a quarter they won't play any games with how they deliver. To me that is close enough and that will almost maximize the number of cars that get the tax credit. I think it is more feasible if they were going to hit the 200k at the end of a quarter they would move around S/X cars to ship primarily out of the US to make sure they don't hit the 200k in that quarter. But if they hit it in April then they probably won't change their shipment pattern at all.
PJFW8
Red Menace may hurt me
ℬête Noire
Active Member
It appears to be 5 posts, if that's the trigger. Appears it then also lets you load an avatar image. Or maybe it was the "Funny" I got on one of my posts that triggered it?
== == ==
I note that the spreadsheet is listing LR D model's production as starting Aug 1 at the earliest (CA zone).
Tesla Model 3 top level page has "All-Wheel Drive production begins in the Spring [2018]", in the "Production Timeline" section. That's a couple months past most definitions of 'spring', are we just not believing that top level page?
P.S. I will note that the spreadsheet's estimate for LR D delivery for me is in line with Tesla's window they give me in "Your Model 3 Delivery Estimate", and likely wouldn't be if you were basing it on an earlier production start.
Of course it is, but it won't be updated until the Earning call next week.
Reciprocity
Active Member
As important as when Tesla hits the 200,000th delivery is what the rate of production at that moment going forward is. If we assume mid April for 200,000, its critical that Tesla is maximized for deliveries past that date. We know that Tesla is targeting 5k/w at the end of Q2, so that would be one quarter at 13 weeks x 5000 cars per week, plus a couple thousand per week for S/X. Because the timing is so close to the beginning of Q2, there is no way for Tesla to delay or re-route the deliver of 20k+ vehicles. If it was a few thousand, then they probably could have done that, but there are going to be way to many that they cannot manage it without causing major impacts to the bottom line. This is a company that already has an issue with cash flow and profitability. Ideally, Tesla finds a way to accelerate production in Q1 and are redirecting them to China, Korea, Middle East or other regions that are not yet as mature as the EU and the US. They could also have a large number of cars in transit to the East Coast so that they can be delivered early in Q2. The ramp going from 2500/w to 5000/w faster would make a huge difference. If they can manage to hit 5k a week just a month or two after hitting 2.5k, then it would mean 2 extra months at the higher rate. I think its the best we can hope for.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
I had assumed that the discrepancy in the gap between SR and D start dates when SR production start slipped hard was because they are only tangentially related sub-systems thus the battery fab issues/bottleneck did not have the same magnitude impact on the D's timeline.
"See what they say next week" sounds like a great plan. After all it's pretty hypothetical for me until they put a price tag on AWD more specific than <$5K. I'm SE TX, so while it'd be nice to have (I loved the feel of it in my wife's old Infiniti G35X) and the rains in the region give it some safety use, it's not as big a deal as in a snow-prone climate.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
So, how many reservations do you guys estimate will get full tax credit (%of us reservations)?
Kenriko
Former Vendor
Kenriko
Former Vendor
I'm a current Model S P85 owner, I reserved the Model 3 on December 18th of 2017. I think I can safely say that when I get an invite the non-owner reservations will be soon to follow.
Kenriko
Former Vendor
Clearly it's wrong, I think the default value is "late 2018" as owners who reserved recently are getting that same estimate even though they are likely to get an invite within a few weeks.
Good question. I have just added a live info-box to cell DU22 here. Thanks for the idea! The location of the box might change in the future. Look for the box called 'Federal Tax Credits'. Currently, it shows these numbers:
93,715 Model 3 buyers in the US are expected to receive $7,500 federal tax credits which is 35.2%."
suwaneedad
Member
I used to think that Tesla would game deliveries to land the 200,000th US delivery on the first day of a quarter (ideally). I believe Elon once said that timing things well would result in an additional $1BILLION in credits for Tesla customers. Lots of water under the bridge since then, though. There are far more pressing priorities than gaming this expiry, not to mention it ramps down anyway, and gaming it draws negative publicity and we nearly saw the credit die on a whim in December anyway (thanks GOP). Making any moves (including talking about it on the earnings calls) is not something that will be wise for Tesla. Fly low, Elon, fly low.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
I agree with previous posters. Tesla would certainly manipulate deliveries if it was at the end of a quarter. But in the middle of a quarter the production rate creates too much product to manipulate
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