Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[N5329K]

A special badge with a folding chair on it?
Robin

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. Here is the latest update:

Based on recent news, I have changed two settings to fine tune calculations. As a result, all dates have been pushed 10 to 15 days forward. I recommend re-entering your data to see your latest delivery estimate. Here is the link: Tesla Model 3 Delivery Estimator

1. The first change is related to the cancellation rate. Because of this recent news, I have increased the cancellation rate from 8% to 9%. If you were already in front of the queue, cancellations won't move your date forward but if you reserved late, this change should move your delivery date up to 5 days sooner.

2. Recently, Tesla canceled a contract with a German supplier. I was reading news articles about that and came across to this article that says the parts were supposed to be ready for delivery in September 2017. Interestingly, the estimator was already set to use 1st Sep 2017 as the production start date for employee cars.

Basically, this latest data confirms my September 2017 wild guess but it doesn't mention the exact date of the month. It could be the beginning of the month or the end of the month. To reduce the error margin, I decided to use 16th Sep 2017. That's for employee cars. Production start date for non-employee cars is now 4th Nov 2017.

 

[mrtian97]

I tried the program but doesn't work. Could you guestimate if in Ca, non tesla owner, placed order online the morning of April 1 (at the time I think they said 200,000 reservations). thx

 

[boiler81]

Wow, if your estimators correct my car's production is just before Christmas. Not sure I want a car built then...maybe I'll have to delay delivery a few weeks.

 

[Troy]

@mrtian97, Google Sheets doesn't work very well with mobile devices. You might want to try on a desktop/laptop computer.

Elon tweeted 198K reservations at 10:23 Pacific time. Here are the results based on your data:
Delivery location USA, Pacific excluding CA
Reservation time you entered 1 Apr 2016, 10:25 am
Production start 6 Apr 2018
Production end 10 Apr 2018
Delivery 17 Apr 2018
Tax credits (optimistic scenario) $7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
Tax credits (realistic scenario) $3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018

 

[Troy]

Hi. I've received a question asking if I can break out Canada into Eastern/Western regions. I think the idea is that it would make sense to deliver West Canada before East similar to the USA. However, I don't think the regions in the USA are going to have any effect on Canada deliveries because the hardware for Canada cars is different. Therefore it can't be batched together with USA deliveries. They have to do a separate batch for Canada and I don't think there is enough volume to separate different regions. Canada sales are only 2.77% of Tesla's sales. Once they switch the production line to Canada, it should cover all regions.

Currently, the expectation is that production for Canada will start after any region in the USA. The dates are like this:

Location / Production start date
USA, California 4 Nov 2017
USA, Pacific excluding CA 18 Nov 2017
USA, Mountain Time 2 Dec 2017
USA, Central Time 16 Dec 2017
USA, Eastern Time 30 Dec 2017
Canada 17 Jan 2018
Europe excluding the UK 31 Jan 2018
China or Hong Kong 14 Feb 2018
Australia or New Zealand 15 May 2018
UK 20 May 2018
Japan 2 Jun 2018

 

[Darryl]

high optioned models will not be made first!!!!!!!!!!! Elon has said this many times. Doesn't matter if it is base model or loaded.
It will be by 'reservation lots'. Location is not most important-when is most important. All pre-unveil orders will be fulfilled first regardless of location. I've posted this many times before but few listen even though I presented Elon twitter facts.
It's highly likely:
All preunveil west coast will be first
Then N
Then S
Then E (great for me by that time all the bugs will be worked out before I get mine)

followed up with post unveiled orders:
bundles of cars based on when you ordered-not what you ordered. (confirmed by Elon tweet)

So if the above model isn't programmed right you will get a false final result. Don't count on this calculator.
And if a Tesla owner ordered after unveil they don't get bumped in front of someone who ordered pre unveil. Also, twitter confirmed.

Elon DID say on at least two occasions that highly optioned cars would made first. I heard him.

 

[mrtian97]

@Troy: thanks for the estimate. Makes sense to me, I think delivery in 2018 is realistic expectation.
Hopefully I could still benefit from the Federal Tax Credit.

 

[Sharkbait]

Based on the data I entered, it appears my highly optioned M3 would be delivered mid-November, which may further qualify for the full federal credit. I wonder if it would be a good idea to defer one time and lose the credit or go ahead with an early copy.

 

[S3XY]

Everyone behind you thinks you should defer.

 

[Sharkbait]

Everyone behind you thinks you should defer.

Funny. Thought that would be the case. I'll give you a great deal on an S75 driven by a little old man only on Sundays to Piggly Wiggly.

 

[schonelucht]

Europe excluding the UK 31 Jan 2018
China or Hong Kong 14 Feb 2018
Australia or New Zealand 15 May 2018
UK 20 May 2018
Japan 2 Jun 2018

Tesla already indicated they are going to optimize production to maximize the federal tax credit. Suppose they hit 200k early in 2018. That triggers the phase out with full credits available for just the two first quarters of 2018. Therefore the first 5 months of 2018 are exclusively dedicated to the US market and likely no to little production for Europe/Asia in Feb/March/April/May

 

[tsla007]

@Darryl-only in the lot/batch. Say you're in the first 10k reservations on the east coast. Your reservation time was 3pm on the 31st and you're 7,894 in line on the East Coast. If a batch is 5k cars-you are in the second batch of cars to be delivered to the East coast.
So in that second batch you'll be up in that queue-meaning you're car might be made 5,874 or something instead of 7894 which might only save you a week or so in delivery. Big whoopie doo!

 

[Troy]

Hi, @schonelucht. I'm aware of Elon's tweet that you are talking about. Indeed what he described there could be possible. The current calculations show 206,992 cars sold in the USA at the end of Q4 2017. They might send 7,000 more Model S/X cars to Europe and Asia to avoid 200K in Q4. However, what you have described is something different and more complicated for no benefit to Tesla. They need to hire more people at the assembly plants in Europe. They need to coordinate things with suppliers so they can get the parts that are different in EU cars. They need to train technicians in Europe for Model 3 repairs. I can't imagine they would postpone all that or mess up things in any way just so 100% of production goes to the USA in Q1 2018 instead of 79%. It doesn't make a huge difference.

As it is right now, the estimator uses these percentages for USA deliveries:
100.00% Q3 2017
100.00% Q4 2017
79.00% Q1 2018
65.00% Q2 2018
62.00% Q3 2018
58.00% Q4 2018

When deciding on production start dates, I looked at Model X data. This wasn't easy because the data is not readily available. First I researched the dates of first deliveries in each region. Then I processed the delivery tracker spreadsheet to extract transit times. I subtracted the transit times from first delivery dates to calculate production start dates. I came up with the dates you quoted, based on the following data.

Region, First deliveries - Transit times = Production start dates for Model X
USA, California 1 Mar 2016 - 5 days = 25 Feb 2016
Canada 2 Jun 2016 - 32 days = 1 May 2016
China or Hong Kong 24 Jun 2016 - 50 days = 5 May 2016
Europe excluding the UK 30 Jun 2016 - 47 days = 14 May 2016

 

[schonelucht]

Hi, However, what you have described is something different and more complicated for no benefit to Tesla. They need to hire more people at the assembly plants in Europe. They need to coordinate things with suppliers so they can get the parts that are different in EU cars. They need to train technicians in Europe for Model 3 repairs. I can't imagine they would postpone all that or mess up things in any way just so 100% of production goes to the USA in Q1 2018 instead of 79%. It doesn't make a huge difference.

I guess I don't see the complication for Tesla to do the roll out in Europe a little later? It changes nothing but the date they need to start. With regards to the Tesla benefit, I think there clearly is one. It will allow a lot more people to stretch for options that they wouldn't buy without the credit. And those options are where Tesla is really making a killing. For the first quarters, it may even be the difference between turning a profit or a loss on the car.

Region, First deliveries - Transit times = Production start dates for Model X
USA, California 1 Mar 2016 - 5 days = 25 Feb 2016

While I am not so sure that using the Model X ramp is the right one for the Model 3, it's the best we have. But why did you pick March 1st as first deliveries?

 

[Troy]

I picked that date based on the highlighted statements in the article. It sounds like they started solving the issues in March and slowly increased the rate by the last week. Let me know if you have more precise data.

The Q1 delivery count was impacted by severe Model X supplier parts shortages in January and February that lasted much longer than initially expected. Once these issues were resolved, production and delivery rates improved dramatically. By the last full week of March, the build rate rose to 750 Model X vehicles per week, however many of these vehicles were built too late to be delivered to their owners before end of quarter.

 

[schonelucht]

I picked that date based on the highlighted statements in the article. It sounds like they started solving the issues in March and slowly increased the rate by the last week. Let me know if you have more precise data.

I am not so sure if those events had a major impact on the timeline of the launch in Europe. Everything you summed up above (and let's not forget certification) had to happen anyway and was relatively independent from supplier issues. The start of the process of launching in Europe seems more likely tied to when the company was actually ready to let go of control of the car (and have sources not tied to the factory experience it).

Anyway, the launch of the Model X was so fraught with issues that it's really hard to use it as a model. Maybe a better way would be use the regional opening of the configurator to pre-orders. That shows the intent of the Tesla of when the car was supposed to come to the market rather than when suppliers could deliver (which is what you measure essentially). With Model 3 suppliers on a much stricter leash, you'd expect the Model 3 launch more following the intent of Tesla rather than the readiness of their suppliers.

 

[Snow Drift]

@Troy does Forward mean later date or earlier in the new model?

My date went from April to May. Want to make sure I didn't mess up.

 

[Troy]

Hi, @Snow Drift. Delivery dates are now 10 to 15 days later than before after this latest update.

 

[mrtian97]

If Chevy only deliver 1-2,000 Bolt in one month, would Tesla be able to deliver more 10,000 Model 3 per month?
My est time is April 2018, and I think I am #200,000
Thanks