Thanks for updating Troy. I'm having a problem selecting Model 75 on the estimator. It is switching to the 75D when I select the 75. Is it just me? I'm accessing the the spreadsheet using mobile.
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AlanSqB
Dog Chauffeur
I love how optimistic the calculation is for me. It seems hard to believe, but fun to dream that I'll get my car here in Colorado before the end of the year given that I ordered from home, right before the reveal.
Does the spreadsheet compensate for the time zone in the time entry field or should I put the time in CA that I reserved? Either way, I'm supposed to get the car in December. Can't ask for better timing.
Does the spreadsheet compensate for the time zone in the time entry field or should I put the time in CA that I reserved? Either way, I'm supposed to get the car in December. Can't ask for better timing.
Hi, @Fair_Dinkum. Droplists in Google Sheets don't work well on mobile devices. You might want to try on a regular computer.
Hi, @ummgood. All I can say to RWD buyers is that, don't try to postpone or delay the delivery. For example, don't wait a day to configure your car. If you can't get your RWD Model 3 in 2017, you might not get it in time before the federal tax credits drop from $7500 to $3750 most likely on 1st July 2018. I expect very few or no RWD deliveries between early January and early June 2018 because they need to focus on D and P versions. Also, Tesla can't prioritize USA deliveries too much and ignore Europe for a while because it would overwhelm their delivery capacity in the USA and underutilize it in Europe.
Hi, @AlanSqB. At the bottom of each search box, there are 3 bullet points about time zones. Check out those. You need to enter Pacific Time if you reserved online before 8 April 2016.
Hi, @ummgood. All I can say to RWD buyers is that, don't try to postpone or delay the delivery. For example, don't wait a day to configure your car. If you can't get your RWD Model 3 in 2017, you might not get it in time before the federal tax credits drop from $7500 to $3750 most likely on 1st July 2018. I expect very few or no RWD deliveries between early January and early June 2018 because they need to focus on D and P versions. Also, Tesla can't prioritize USA deliveries too much and ignore Europe for a while because it would overwhelm their delivery capacity in the USA and underutilize it in Europe.
Hi, @AlanSqB. At the bottom of each search box, there are 3 bullet points about time zones. Check out those. You need to enter Pacific Time if you reserved online before 8 April 2016.
Foxhound199
Member
One weird thing about the calculator: It seems to punish people in California for having to wait behind employees, but doesn't seem to factor it in for other regions. That is, all things equal, the calculator predicts a Washingtonian would get theirs before a Californian because they don't have to wait for employees in their region. I always got the impression it would be employees, then California, then rest of the west coast.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
thelastdeadmouse
Member
Stupid question but I can never remember, I made my reservation online about two minutes after the page went up, and hour (or whatever it was) before the reveal, but I can never remember what time that was. Any help on that?
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
ummgood
Member
I don't plan on postponing even though it might not work out perfectly well for me. Do you really think waiting a day would make that big of a difference in ordering? For example say I get an email to configure on the 15th of Sept and then need to wait until the next day to configure? The reason I ask is I never know where I'll be in the world and I might not be in a situation to order on a given day. I'll order as soon as I can but for example two weeks ago I got up at 5am in Oslo and traveled all day to get home to Austin that evening. No way I could have or would have made an order on that day.
Plus I do have to at least discuss everything with my wife before buying something of that magnitude. I am hoping to at least no the costs ahead of time so we can have the discussion before I get my email so I can pull the trigger quickly but if I don't have that info early then I'll have to sit down with her and discuss the costs when I get the email. If I am in another country when that happens it might have to wait until I get home. Usually I am only gone a week or two. I do have a trip to Norway/UK/France scheduled for Sept so it might be in that timeframe.
Another thought I had is if I get my car late November and I live in Texas I might have an advantage on my taxes. If I get my car end of '17 and then apply for the credit in '17 then I'll get that back in '17. Then say I wait until Jan to pay the taxes and title the car then I can deduct the sales tax in '18 so I get two years of tax relief because of the car. Not quite sure how long I have and it all depends on the timing of when I receive the car but it is a possibility. If I get it in December I will probably do this. I believe you have 30 days to title a car in Texas but I could be wrong.
ummgood
Member
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
@Troy Quick question, when I look at the data in column H, shouldn't I see 130 for the cumulative at the end of August? 30 from July and 100 from August? When I look on the data tab, the last row for August (H188) shows 192. Just looking to understand.
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31 Aug 2017 Q3 2017 3.00 192.00 USA, California Single motorHi, @ummgood. I'm pretty sure there will be lots of leaked screenshots of the configurator long before you receive an invite from Tesla to configure. My guess is, Tesla will open the configurator to employees in early September and a few screenshots will leak. They can manage the low numbers in July and August without a configurator.
Then in early October, they will send out invites to all existing owners. Again lots more screenshots will be uploaded. Then they will invite maybe to the first 10,000 people in line in California and two weeks after that another 10,000. Whoever configures first in each batch will have priority within that batch. The problem is, they might not size the batches appropriately for each region. Other regions have fewer reservations. Therefore the batches there should be smaller. For example, if 10,000 people California represents the first 6 hours of in-store reservations, the equivalent of that elsewhere would be as follows:
USA, California 10,000
USA, Pacific excluding CA 1882
USA, Mountain Time 1367
USA, Central Time 3232
USA, Eastern Time 7919
If they are lazy and invite the first 10K people in Cental time zone states, then that batch will include people who didn't reserve that early. If you are late to confirm, then people who reserved much later then you, might jump in front if you. This problem affects Central, Mountain and Pacific states other than California.
Another problem is, fearmongering about federal tax credits could cause large portions of reservation holders to switch to the RWD versions. I'm now calculating 39,422 deliveries in 2017 (down from 45K in previous projections). California will have priority, employees and owners will also have priority. There isn't that much capacity left in 2017 for the rest.
I think it is less likely that Tesla will hit 200K USA sales in Q4 2017. It is more likely it will happen in Q1 2018. I have updated the calculations on this page yesterday (scroll all the way to the right) and it shows 24 January 2018 for the day they will hit 200K. However, I think it is more likely that most media sources who report on this issue (EV blogs and youtube channels) will claim that Tesla will hit 200K in 2017.
Then in early October, they will send out invites to all existing owners. Again lots more screenshots will be uploaded. Then they will invite maybe to the first 10,000 people in line in California and two weeks after that another 10,000. Whoever configures first in each batch will have priority within that batch. The problem is, they might not size the batches appropriately for each region. Other regions have fewer reservations. Therefore the batches there should be smaller. For example, if 10,000 people California represents the first 6 hours of in-store reservations, the equivalent of that elsewhere would be as follows:
USA, California 10,000
USA, Pacific excluding CA 1882
USA, Mountain Time 1367
USA, Central Time 3232
USA, Eastern Time 7919
If they are lazy and invite the first 10K people in Cental time zone states, then that batch will include people who didn't reserve that early. If you are late to confirm, then people who reserved much later then you, might jump in front if you. This problem affects Central, Mountain and Pacific states other than California.
Another problem is, fearmongering about federal tax credits could cause large portions of reservation holders to switch to the RWD versions. I'm now calculating 39,422 deliveries in 2017 (down from 45K in previous projections). California will have priority, employees and owners will also have priority. There isn't that much capacity left in 2017 for the rest.
I think it is less likely that Tesla will hit 200K USA sales in Q4 2017. It is more likely it will happen in Q1 2018. I have updated the calculations on this page yesterday (scroll all the way to the right) and it shows 24 January 2018 for the day they will hit 200K. However, I think it is more likely that most media sources who report on this issue (EV blogs and youtube channels) will claim that Tesla will hit 200K in 2017.
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Hi, @insaneoctane. Nice catch. August should be 100 instead of 150. I was too tired and mixed up the numbers. The rest looks OK. July should be more than 30 because Elon said 30 deliveries on 28 July. I assumed those 30 cars would be ready a few days before the event. I will fix the 100 vs 150 in the next update.
ummgood
Member
I am figuring that a majority will end up going with rear wheel drive. I am thinking (and I could be wrong) that the majority of people that will delay will be people who want performance or the very base 35k version. I am guessing the first cars will be a well equipped, large battery, RWD model based on the mules. If someone wants a performance or really can't afford more than 35k they might wait (assuming the tax credit won't bring the first cars down to 35k but they might not be able to finance the larger amount until they get their credit). I think people who were stating they only wanted dual motor might change their mind because of recent tweets from Elon about how good the RWD really is in the snow. Frankly Bjorn used RWD for all his initial videos without any real complaints.
Will people who want AWD actually order a car, that won't come until 2018, or do they "defer", and then can come back to the design studio at any time (even to then choose a RWD car and place an order). If they defer because they want AWD, are they locked in to waiting for an AWD release to design their car?
Elon has said you can extend it, but what exactly does that mean?
Elon has said you can extend it, but what exactly does that mean?
Doesn't seem like it matters that much, as a current Tesla owner who's not picky about AWD/RWD or other options, it pretty much shows a delivery date within a six-week window (Oct 30 to Dec 15 2017) for all U.S. regions, if you've just reserved only recently.
It was fun to play with the configurator though I'm treating it as wishful thinking. I know it's been stated by Telsa that current owners get priority, but was only for the initial reservations, or ongoing? Basically do new Model S/X owners in 2017 immediately get to jump the line in front of even Day 1 reservation holders (non-owners)?
I want AWD and just a few other things that cannot be toggled by a soft/firmware switch -- glass sunroof (for other family members), winter package, dynamic cruise control and automatic emergency braking (if not part of those two AP options).
Maybe I'm missing a thing or two but I don't mind not having leather seats as those get hot in the summer and really cold in the winter.
I think we will see the initial delivery period based on our selections, which will firm up as time goes by. You probably will have priority over someone who is choosing similar options as you but fall behind you in the queue whether or not you option your AWD vehicle when the design studio opens.
Of course Tesla owners and Troy would be in a better position to provide a more accurate response.
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