Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[shrspeedblade]

Hi, @JoeCoolMan24. I don't think Tesla will provide that kind of dynamic estimate. They will probably just display a rough timeline for each option similar to what they did with the Model X. Check out the screenshots in this article. Look at the trim levels and the 5 seater option.

It's interesting that with the X, certain peripheral options like HiFi and Subzero didn't effect the build date (or you weren't told, anyway).
I wonder if it will be the same thing with the Model 3, or because of the streamlined options any changes beyond the wheels/paint we've been hearing will push the delivery date back, and if so to any significant amount?

Say, I really wanted Subzero to keep my back seat passengers bums warm, but it changed delivery on a RWD 75 from Dec. 17 to March 2018. I don't think I'd take that chance, as any delay could change it from a $1k to a $4750 option!

Another kudos for the estimator Troy, great work!

 

[hoang51]

Hey folks, Troy and I have collaborated on several videos before where he provides the data. The tool "I" built was the Tableau version which uses his data and very similar logic. My tool is quite different in the interface, output, and doesn't require you to find an empty slot to get your prediction. Of course, I could not have done it without him which is why I credited him at the end of the video and added links in the description as well as in the top pinned comment.

If this upsets you at all I'd encourage you to unsubscribe, stop following, commenting, etc. It actually helps me focus on making things my audience loves without added noise.

The td;dr version about the video...

My target audience is global, and many would be intimidated by the spreadsheet format. So for that reason I decided to keep it out of the video and just reference it for those that want to dive deeper. As far as the website / description, those are written in a way to attract outside viewers using SEO...

...

I hope you all have a beautiful day!

Cheers,
Ben

How you present things is how you either give good or bad impression about your character to viewers. I can't speak for others, but it seems like there's a common impression that some of us have about you: you presented in the video as if you did the data mining and created the tool all by yourself, which leads to a bad impression that some of us knowing that Troy built a tool prior to yours. We can understand you built a separate tool from the spreadsheet, that's not being disputed. You left out the important parts about the data mining and Troy's spreadsheet until towards the end where you credited Troy. If for example, you stated up front in the video and the description that it was a "collaboration" between you and Troy, and you built a better GUI tool to utilize Troy's data, I think it would've been acceptable and left a good impression. Because you didn't, so you get criticism on your presentation on your YouTube video.

Take these criticism we give you as educational pointers to improve on your skills. The way you warn us to stay away from you lessens your good characteristics. How will you know what you presented is actually good if you do not want to receive critical feedback? Feedback is essential for improvement if utilized correctly. I'm sorry, but if you didn't learn this in school, this is a good opportunity for you to think about it. Our criticism have a basis. The way you justify what you did in your post in response to our criticism didn't persuade me enough to overcome the bad impression I have about your video. Doing it for business is one thing, but customer service is another.

 

[EValuatED]

If this upsets you at all I'd encourage you to unsubscribe, stop following, commenting, etc. It actually helps me focus on making things my audience loves without added noise.

My target audience is global...written in a way to attract outside viewers using SEO. If you're unfamiliar with how SEO works there are many videos / pages explaining this online you can find with a simple google search.

If you're curious about how YouTube works, which may result in some things you don't like...

I hope you all have a beautiful day!

Cheers,
Ben

Wow. Lame x 3.

 

[databen]

How you present things is how you either give good or bad impression about your character to viewers. I can't speak for others, but it seems like there's a common impression that some of us have about you: you presented in the video as if you did the data mining and created the tool all by yourself, which leads to a bad impression that some of us knowing that Troy built a tool prior to yours. We can understand you built a separate tool from the spreadsheet, that's not being disputed. You left out the important parts about the data mining and Troy's spreadsheet until towards the end where you credited Troy. If for example, you stated up front in the video and the description that it was a "collaboration" between you and Troy, and you built a better GUI tool to utilize Troy's data, I think it would've been acceptable and left a good impression. Because you didn't, so you get criticism on your presentation on your YouTube video.

Take these criticism we give you as educational pointers to improve on your skills. The way you warn us to stay away from you lessens your good characteristics. How will you know what you presented is actually good if you do not want to receive critical feedback? Feedback is essential for improvement if utilized correctly. I'm sorry, but if you didn't learn this in school, this is a good opportunity for you to think about it. Our criticism have a basis. The way you justify what you did in your post in response to our criticism didn't persuade me enough to overcome the bad impression I have about your video. Doing it for business is one thing, but customer service is another.

Thanks for the feedback, seriously I do take it to heart. And keep up this awesome forum, some really good info here.

 

[david_42]

I guess mine will be delivered some time after Tesla says we can place my order, probably next summer. By then just about all options should be available, so I'm not sweating it. If the stock breaks $450 by then, I'll be able to pay for it from my profits.

 

[beenmb]

Hey @Troy, have you been working with the folks at Teslanomics on a web-form version of this calculator?

The reason I ask is because Teslarati just published an article stating that Teslanomics has "built" a Model 3 delivery calculator. The calculator is embedded within the article itself, and can be found on the Teslanomics website as well.

The calculator's input parameters and output are strikingly similar to your spreadsheet, and if I enter the same parameters into both calculators, I get the exact same results. This makes me believe that their calculator is actually built on top of your spreadsheet. However, I do not see anywhere where you are credited, nor do I see a link to your spreadsheet. In other words, Teslanomics seems to be claiming this work as its own (and the Teslarati article suggests the very same thing).

Given how much thought and research you've put into this tool, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of this situation, in the event that you hadn't given Teslanomics permission to use your work. At the very least, both Teslanomics and Teslarati should be giving you credit as the original author.

EDIT: In the full blog post on Teslanomics, I see that you are given credit for the data at the bottom. However, Teslarati does not give this credit, nor do they link to the full blog post. I also find it very disingenuous that Ben Sullins states in his video that he ("I") built the tool when in fact all he did was create a web form that runs your formulas and spits out the result... IMHO he should have given you full credit right up front. Alas, his choice to claim the work as his own only helps cement my view that his website is just a clickbait-mobile for monetizing cult-like following around Tesla and the Model 3. Very disappointing.

Anyway! Back to our regularly-scheduled programming...

This is the second slightly sketchy video I've seen by Teslanomics Ben. Check out his video "Don't Buy A Tesla! True Cost of Owning a Tesla Compared to a Porsche Panamera and S-Class Mercedes" At first it was titled just "DON'T BUY A TESLA" Within a short time the thumbs down rapidly out paced the thumbs up and most of the comments were calling it a click bait title THEN he added the rest of the title that is there now. Hummm...

 

[sports4eva115]

Thanks for the feedback, seriously I do take it to heart. And keep up this awesome forum, some really good info here.

just fyi Ben, I'm subscribed to your channel, and as a data scientist I really enjoy your videos.
I completely agree with hoang51, and I feel extra strong on this because one thing my company takes seriously is giving credit where credit is due. I'm glad you're taking our advice and will continue to enjoy your channel.
Keep up the great work!

 

[JoeCoolMan24]

The way you warn us to stay away from you lessens your good characteristics.

I guess we all said our points and he had a chance to respond, so I don't want to keep harping on it, but I do think of all the excellent points you made, this was the one that stood out the most.

The video could have easily started out "So I took this awesome tool that Troy from TMC created and put a nice shiny package on it to help out enthusiasts" (Which I would agree that Ben's aesthetic improvements really do make it look easier and less intimidating to use). But he didn't and we all voiced our displeasure. But dismissing it with "Then unsubscribe, and stop commenting" looks just as bad.

I don't subscribe to Ben, but I have found a few of his videos helpful and I know he is mostly liked in the community, so I don't see him as a frothing villain, but I do think Hoang makes a very good point and I can't imagine this would happen again after the criticism that has befallen this misstep. I've said my peace.

 

[chateauoaks]

Seems this place already has them in stock. Not sure it's legit. LOL

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[sports4eva115]

Great video Ben thanks for taking our advice!

 

[Wildergoose]

Really applaud what has been done here. Have run the estimator, and have a question not found with the search engine. Memory tells me, believe I heard it on a YouTube, that Tesla gives you an upgrade on delivery if you are a stockholder. Did I not remember correctly?

 

[MP3Mike]

Memory tells me, believe I heard it on a YouTube, that Tesla gives you an upgrade on delivery if you are a stockholder. Did I not remember correctly?

I don't recall them ever saying that. You do get priority if you are a current Tesla vehicle owner.

 

[JoeCoolMan24]

Great video Ben thanks for taking our advice!

Yeah, no qualms with how he described his involvement here. Totally fair, IMO.

 

[Wildergoose]

I don't recall them ever saying that. You do get priority if you are a current Tesla vehicle owner.

Thanks Mike... getting eager and hoping stockholders might also be getting a break. Got an old brain full of new thoughts. Very dangerous.

 

[sports4eva115]

@Troy WE BEG FOR YOUR UPDATE

 

[smak]

Depending on what the rampup in October is between September's 1500 and December's 20,000, the estimator could be pretty spot on.

 

[insaneoctane]

Just took a peak at Troy's data. He is currently predicting :
July = 76 (vs Elon 30)
August = 378 (vs Elon 100)
September = 2,502 (vs Elon >1500)
October = 9,038
November = 16,400
December = 29,068 (vs Elon 20,000)

This tells me that if you used Troy's estimator tool that it gave you a date earlier than what Elon tweeted tonight. By the way, I think Troy did a great job estimating this and will quickly be able to adjust to the new data, so nothing negative to him at all! I just wanted to share how Elon's tweet relates to the tool..

 

[schonelucht]

Looks good. The schedule given by Elon is about one week slower (reaches 1650 by end of Sept) than the estimator (reaches 1650 by Sept 23).

 

[ModelNforNerd]

another unresolved-for variable:

Does this new ramp schedule alter the AWD or P variants' delivery timelines in any way? Is Tesla ahead of schedule on those as well...???

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. I'm away for a few days. I will update the calculations on Friday.