Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[Troy]

Hi, @SageBrush. My idea was to provide some general information so people don't end up buying a car with insufficient range because nobody told them they would get 73% of advertised range in bad weather and after some degradation. This shouldn't be a problem during daily commute and it might not be a problem for long distance trips if there is a supercharger on the way but some people have destinations they regularly need to drive to and it might be, let's say 180 miles away. The perfectly reasonable assumption here would be that the Model 3 55 should have enough range but it doesn't.

1. The Model 3s in North America will display EPA rated range (the combined number) on the touchscreen. Therefore there is no getting away from this number. For example, if the Model 3 75D has 297 mi EPA rated range, then when you charge to 100%, it will show 297 miles range. It won't actually say EPA rated range even though this is what it shows.

However, I understand what you mean. You mean, because the Model 3 is expected to have excellent drag coefficient, real world range might be closer to EPA rated range, especially at highway speeds. After your message, I looked at the numbers. There is a clear difference between the Bolt and Model 3 but little difference between the Model S and Model 3. However, adjusting the numbers by 1% would be more accurate I think. So, maybe this would be more accurate:

On average Model 3s real world range might be 86% of EPA rated range. In good weather, you might get 94% of EPA rated range. In bad weather, you might get 78%. Considering both degradation and winter range together, you should be prepared to get only 0.95*0.78= 74% of EPA rated range. For example, if the Model 3 75D has 297 mi EPA rated range, that would be 220 miles real world range in bad weather after your battery has 95% capacity left at 40,000 miles.

2. OK

 

[insaneoctane]

@Troy, you may want to consider including the impact of charging your Tesla per the recommended maximum 90% in your reduction numbers....

 

[K-mo]

I am an early reservation holder here in Seattle. Was one of those that lined up at 5 AM on March 31st here at the local Tesla showroom. Have checked out your reservation calculator, and has my delivery date at late Oct. A friend of mine called down to the factory a couple of days ago, and quizzed them on PNW delivery dates, and they confirmed Oct. deliveries.
Getting very excited, I called the Seattle Tesla to talk about procedures, delivery, etc. I asked him about my expected delivery dates. He comes back with some time next spring to mid year! He then says I probably have no chance of receiving the tax credit. Claims this is all because of the number of existing Tesla owners who have ordered Model 3s who jump to the front of the line. He then proceeds to try and sell me on buying an S. They have a sale, lots of used inventory, blah, blah, blah.
Needles to say, this severely bums me out. Could they just be saying this because they want to push the Model S? I'm really not sure what to think.

 

[SageBrush]

I am an early reservation holder here in Seattle. Was one of those that lined up at 5 AM on March 31st here at the local Tesla showroom. Have checked out your reservation calculator, and has my delivery date at late Oct. A friend of mine called down to the factory a couple of days ago, and quizzed them on PNW delivery dates, and they confirmed Oct. deliveries.
Getting very excited, I called the Seattle Tesla to talk about procedures, delivery, etc. I asked him about my expected delivery dates. He comes back with some time next spring to mid year! He then says I probably have no chance of receiving the tax credit. Claims this is all because of the number of existing Tesla owners who have ordered Model 3s who jump to the front of the line. He then proceeds to try and sell me on buying an S. They have a sale, lots of used inventory, blah, blah, blah.
Needles to say, this severely bums me out. Could they just be saying this because they want to push the Model S? I'm really not sure what to think.

Consider it entertainment while you wait for the final reveal. Clearly the salesguy did not have a clue. No doubt you are pretty early in the reservation queue but the delivery date is dependent on the ramp up rate. With luck you should have your car in 2017, and otherwise early 2018.

 

[N5329K]

Could they just be saying this because they want to push the Model S?

Yes.
Robin

 

[Foxhound199]

I am an early reservation holder here in Seattle. Was one of those that lined up at 5 AM on March 31st here at the local Tesla showroom.

I got to the Seattle showroom about 5am too! Maybe I was next to you in line? The salesperson seems wrong on several fronts. First, did you give them any indication if you were hoping to get AWD or a Performance model? Those things will set you back, and I have a feeling AWD will be very popular in PNW. But if you want a RWD, I'd bet you're getting it this year. As for the tax credit, that's hogwash. Even if you were getting your car middle of next year, absolute worst case scenario is you get half credit ($3750).

 

[Stolz25]

Says I'm getting delivery on a Tuesday, so I'll need to take vacation. Should I put in for that now or wait?

 

[K-mo]

I got to the Seattle showroom about 5am too! Maybe I was next to you in line? The salesperson seems wrong on several fronts. First, did you give them any indication if you were hoping to get AWD or a Performance model? Those things will set you back, and I have a feeling AWD will be very popular in PNW. But if you want a RWD, I'd bet you're getting it this year. As for the tax credit, that's hogwash. Even if you were getting your car middle of next year, absolute worst case scenario is you get half credit ($3750).

Ha! I bet we were in line together. Was actually a pretty fun morning meeting all the other Seattle enthusiasts. I still haven't made up my mind about AWD. I think I will be fine with RWD as I have another vehicle for going to the mountains. I just don't see the logic of these Tesla sales people misleading us. Don't they realize they will just alienate folks?

 

[dsvick]

I just don't see the logic of these Tesla sales people misleading us. Don't they realize they will just alienate folks?

I think the only misleading going on is that they may giving you worst case delivery dates for your model 3. Whoever you spoke to at the store doesn't know any more or less than the person you spoke to at the customer service number who doesn't know any more or less than Troy and the delivery estimator. The estimator may be a more scientifically derived but it is still pretty much speculation just as is almost everything else about the car so far.

Right now no one knows how many prior owners there are that will configure in front of you, or how many employees, or how many of either group that will decide to wait for AWD or performance. If there are more than 10,000 - 15,000 of them combined (on the West coast) and they all go with RWD then you may indeed not get yours until late this year. Again though, this is just more speculation.

 

[Troy]

Whoever you spoke to at the store doesn't know any more or less than the person you spoke to at the customer service number who doesn't know any more or less than Troy and the delivery estimator.

I guess the argument you are making here is no one knows anything. I disagree because Tesla has released lots of data and the Estimator is mostly based on data released by Tesla. Listening to Tesla conference calls helps a lot. I listen to all conference calls multiple times so I can recall pieces of information later when I need to. Links to data sources can be found on the Data tab here after column AY.

Right now no one knows how many prior owners there are that will configure in front of you, ...

I don't know what the exact number is right now but I have an idea about what it was on 4 May 2016 because Tesla has released this data. Therefore it's possible to estimate the current number. Were you unaware that Tesla released this data or is your argument that it's impossible to calculate current numbers based on past data? In that case, I can show examples of where my estimate was pretty accurate.

@K-mo, check out this article. There is some internal pressure for stores to sell more cars.

 

[dsvick]

I guess the argument you are making here is no one knows anything. I disagree because Tesla has released lots of data and the Estimator is mostly based on data released by Tesla. Listening to Tesla conference calls helps a lot. I listen to all conference calls multiple times so I can recall pieces of information later when I need to. Links to data sources can be found on the Data tab here after column AY.



I don't know what the exact number is right now but I have an idea about what it was on 4 May 2016 because Tesla has released this data. Therefore it's possible to estimate the current number. Were you unaware that Tesla released this data or is your argument that it's impossible to calculate current numbers based on past data? In that case, I can show examples of where my estimate was pretty accurate.

I understand what you're saying Troy and I know what data Tesla has released. In the end though, all of your data is pretty much based on extrapolation and educated guesses. I'm not saying that you're wrong or even way off, I'm just advising people not to get too wrapped up in anything anyone has to say about delivery at this point since there are so few facts known.

 

[Trips]

I wonder what percentage of people will order the configuration of the first vehicles. I could see some ordering just because they want to be one of the first. I personally will be waiting for the Dual Motors, Ultra White Seats and Premium Upgrades (Heated Seats, Wheel...) At the same time I will not wait any longer than May because of the tax issues.

Other options that might have people waiting on
Maximum Performance
Smaller Battery
Different Roof
HUD

 

[SageBrush]

At the same time I will not wait any longer than May because of the tax issues.

The federal tax credit is hard to ignore, but I'm starting to wonder if its real attraction might lie in an early swap to the best of 2019 or 2020. By that time resale of our 2017/2018 cars will not be depreciated by the tax credit.

 

[SageBrush]

I understand what you're saying Troy and I know what data Tesla has released. In the end though, all of your data is pretty much based on extrapolation and educated guesses. I'm not saying that you're wrong or even way off, I'm just advising people not to get too wrapped up in anything anyone has to say about delivery at this point since there are so few facts known.

Yep. The ramp rate in particular is the elephant in the room since it is expected to be logarithmic.

 

[Troy]

Hi. Apparently, Tesla has just sent out emails to employees about employee priorities. You can read the email here on Reddit. It is as expected. No changes are needed.

 

[mond81]

I'm curious to see how the communication starts to happen for early orders. I am in California but I reserved during a trip while I was in Europe and did it in store on the 31st at about 10AM local time which was 3AM in California...technically getting in there before all the people in line that day here in the States.

Sadly I may not be ready for the car this soon so not sure what I'll do... maybe do the delay thing. I'm not picky on options other than AP which is required for me. To be honest I was assuming the car would be delayed ... but we'll see.

 

[ZeApelido]

Tesla is prioritizing Model 3 deliveries to employees, but they can’t resell for a profit

Are you assuming 10000 reservations for employees?

 

[Troy]

@ZeApelido,

In the article you have linked to Fred says around 13,000 but then he realizes there are only 19,000 employees (see last few paragraphs) and adjusts his best guess to "safe to say over 10,000". Which one is it? 10,000 or 13,000? My guess, neither because both are too high. The reason why the hidden reservation number didn't start at 1 was that Tesla was trying to obscure the actual number by adding a fixed number to it.

It looks like employee reservations started at 350,000 but it is perfectly possible that they allocated the 350,000 to 360,000 gap to employees. Maybe California started at 360,000 and another region at 370,000. There is this kind of inconsistency in those numbers. See the list here. One of the first people who reserved had a number that started with 370,xxx but others after him had lower numbers.

Therefore my theory is that each region had a pre defined starting number but then they ditched the idea when the reservations exploded, however, the gap between 350,000-360,000 was never filled. The reason why they would allow 10,000 gap for employees is that some employees might decide to reserve later or Tesla might hire new people and they might reserve as well. Therefore it makes sense that regular reservations didn't start with the next available number immediately after the last employee reservation.

Anyway, I'm assuming 5,627 employee reservations in the USA. Also, I'm calculating that RWD employee cars for California will be finished on October 3rd. If there is any new information, I will adjust the numbers.

 

[HoffsM3]

I am friends with a Tesla employee who had an early reservation before they got hired with Tesla. They have already told me they are waiting on AWD. They asked me if I wanted their car but not sure how to swing that and get the tax benefits so keeping the conversation on delivery estimate and not my purchase, that is one less employee in the mix. I anticipate a lot of employees in Reno will wait for AWD due to the winter weather conditions.

 

[vinnie97]

Well, Troy, if your speculation about an 85 kWh offering ends up being prescient for 2018, I might end up deferring (I'm already planning to do same for the dual motor version). I'm not sure how I can maintain my reservation based on such speculation (haven't they only offered one defer option on previous model reservations?). Reducing available range from my ~475-mile (EPA) Prius to ~295 miles is going to be a killer for road trips.