Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[TEG]

...it looks like there is no cut-off date for owner priorities. In other words, owners who will reserve in the upcoming weeks/months will still jump ahead of line waiters. That's how it looks like to me.

Ouch. As a non-owner line-waiter, I find it painful to think that owners are still able to jump ahead of me even after deciding over a year later to go for model 3.
I could see rewarding long time owners who showed "leap of faith" from way back, but now it seems people with enough resources to buy multiple Tesla now can "cut the line" so to speak. Money talks I guess.

I hear conversations like "I am buying a model S and maybe I should get a model 3 for my kid as well..."
I guess if the model 3 date priority perk helps sell another Model S it is a win for Tesla.

 

[modamoda]

This is what I've found so far.

 

[ggies07]

I'm in Texas and waited in line (paid deposit around noon CST). I also have a CPO on order that should be delivered in a few weeks but already shows up in mytesla. Do these dates line up with current owners or non-owners in Texas?
View attachment 238647

I'm in TX as well, non-owner line waiter, and have one month after you - Jan - Mar

 

[Foxhound199]

I hear conversations like "I am buying a model S and maybe I should get a model 3 for my kid as well..."

I'd like to point out for any current owners with the resources to buy a brand new $50k car for their children that they would be able to obtain a much greater sense of safety and peace of mind knowing their kid was driving an AWD version. It would be reckless to leave their kids with anything less, and they should leave those unwieldy early RWDs to fools like me.

 

[JSkrehot]

Troy, could I trouble you to run the estimator again using AWD? Many thanks.
Roy

You can do it on through Tesla now

 

[Vistan]

View attachment 238677


This is what I've found so far.

Think you've got your blue and green color bars mixed up. The first version to be made available is the long range battery model.

 

[Vistan]

Different import requirements/approvals. And probably the biggest reason is that Tesla is trying to optimize how many US people can claim the $7,500 federal tax credit. Every foreign car sold is one less US person that would be able to get the full credit.

Don't think your comment (in bold) is correct. The criteria for setting the tax credit timeline is electric vehicles delivered to U.S. customers. Selling Teslas to Canadians (for example) would have the effect of extending the time for Americans to get the tax credit. Someone please jump in and correct me if I'm wrong on this point.

 

[S3XY]

Don't think your comment (in bold) is correct. The criteria for setting the tax credit timeline is electric vehicles delivered to U.S. customers. Selling Teslas to Canadians (for example) would have the effect of extending the time for Americans to get the tax credit. Someone please jump in and correct me if I'm wrong on this point.

You are correct for the period BEFORE Tesla reaches 200k deliveries but MP3Mike is right once that line is crossed.

 

[McFlurri]

The way tesla is prioritizing orders is very fishy.

 

[Troy]

EPA rated range discussion continues here.

 

[InsideScooper]

Is anyone else bothered my inaccurate articles about Tesla? For example, this CNBC article says Tesla only has about "79,000 Federal tax credits left." A key government perk for Tesla buyers is running out, says Edmunds

It doesn't work that way. Another article said Californians could have incentives as high as $7500. I've only seen a potential $2500, plus PG&E perks.

 

[MP3Mike]

@Troy Have you seen that Tesla has updated their estimate for AWD? Moved forward one quarter: Delivery Estimator CHANGED...

It looks like owners are now quoted May-Jul, and line waiting non-owner are quoted Jul-Sep.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. We have the first "May 2018" estimate for AWD. The screenshot was posted by @Lump here. Until now, the earliest I had seen was July 2018 for AWD, including employees. In fact Lump's screenshot yesterday also showed July 2018 but today it shows May 2018. Yesterday, I explained why this was likely to happen here. I predict that we will soon see April 2018 for AWD.

 

[boiler81]

Troy,
Does you prediction on timing of tax credit phase out hold based on today's Tesla estimator update?

 

[soxs]

Mine updated (East Coast, line-waiter, non-owner) from Sept-Nov '18 to Jul-Sept '18! I like the direction this is going. Makes sense considering Musk said that the Performance version would be middle of the '18 and that would be a dual-motor spec.

 

[Troy]

@boiler81, I will recalculate the estimated day Tesla is expected to hit 200,000 USA sales. Currently, it shows 20 January 2018. According to the rules, hitting the 200,000 limit on any day in Q1 means full credits will continue until the end of Q2. The exact date is not important but the quarter is. I will post an update in this topic.

 

[Carl]

@Troy thanks for all your great work, very much appreciated. What do you think about Tesla now saying European deliveries are for "end 2018"? Estimator still shows in my case March 2018 or so (as Tesla owner and 31 March 2016 reservation holder). Do you have any info (or gut feeling) on this?

 

[FlatSix911]

View attachment 238677
This is what I've found so far.

Think you've got your blue and green color bars mixed up. The first version to be made available is the long range battery model.

Nice chart ... but I agree that the Battery options for Standard/Blue and Long Range/Green are reversed

 

[Troy]

What do you think about Tesla now saying European deliveries are for "end 2018"?

Hi. The FAQ page here says "late 2018" for international deliveries. The same page also says November 2017 for standard battery version and late October for long range delivery start date. The way I read this is, they tried to be as specific as possible about the dates they know but for dates that are further out, they are less specific. I mean "late October" is pretty specific but "late 2018" is not specific at all. At the same time, it is pretty pessimistic.

For example, it says 2019 for right-hand drive countries but Elon had said summer 2018 here. There is about 6 months delay than previously expected. That could mean two things: Either production ramp up is not happening fast enough or they want to prioritize North America deliveries. There is a conference call in three days on the 2nd of August. Check back this topic again after that. Cheers

 

[Reciprocity]

Is anyone else bothered my inaccurate articles about Tesla? For example, this CNBC article says Tesla only has about "79,000 Federal tax credits left." A key government perk for Tesla buyers is running out, says Edmunds

It doesn't work that way. Another article said Californians could have incentives as high as $7500. I've only seen a potential $2500, plus PG&E perks.

The fed starts to run out when Tesla hits 200000 is true, but it starts to phase out, it doesn't end abruptly. It guess for 2 more quarters when gets cut in half for two more then in half again for 2 more before completely phasing out. That's a years worth of 3850-7500 after they hit 200000 shipped on the US. I'm assuming Tesla will try to get that number at the beginning of a quarter to maximize incentives.

Edit: that article is full of errors. Better info on this forum.