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Not to skew your data ....Thanks for keeping me collecting data points.
few thoughts:
- Californians has a lot of advantage of buying AWD
- New owner in certain area has priority over current S/X owner
- Midwest has lowest priority, even compared to East Coast
View attachment 239064
Up until today the Estimator was telling me early 2018 (East Coast, non-employee, non-Tesla owner). Now it's showing early 2019.
View attachment 239117
When did you reserve? Line-waiter? online?
Currently, even employee AWD estimates by Tesla are after that (earliest is July 2018). However, I predict that this will change and there will be AWD deliveries in Q2 2018. ... In short, I wouldn't be surprised if the AWD estimate you see on Tesla's website moves sooner.
...I predict that we will soon see April 2018 for AWD.
Mine is the same as yours, yet I am in the East Coast.Not to skew your data ....
I'm in the Midwest and a non-owner, may dates are:
Nov 17 - Jan 18 for the immediate production
Jan 18 - Mar 18 for the base
July 18 - Sept 18 for AWD
I'm also a day one line waiter so that probably has a lot to do with it.
Troy...Tesla has me delivery estimate for the long range as Feb-Apr. Any idea when I will be invited to the actual configurator? Do they only invite a couple months in advance since there is such a backlog? Thanks.Thanks, @melindav. That's very interesting. I feel now good about my predictions. On 29 July, I had a theory and made a prediction based on that:
Then the next day we saw May 2018 and I made another prediction:
Now, on the form results, I see April 2018. Here is my third prediction: We won't see March 2018 for AWD. The earliest AWD will remain April 2018. If we see March 2018, then it means I need to increase cancellation rate. Currently, I have set it at 15%.
S owner since 2013. Bought in CA, but now live in NM.
Reserved Model 3 online at 7:44pm PT 3/31/2016.
Tesla tells me my delivery estimate is Oct-Dec 2017. I'm surprised by that.
And I thought it was strange that Chicago was considered to be in the Midwest.Not to skew your data ....
I'm in the Midwest and a non-owner, may dates are:
Nov 17 - Jan 18 for the immediate production
Jan 18 - Mar 18 for the base
July 18 - Sept 18 for AWD
I'm also a day one line waiter so that probably has a lot to do with it.