-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Making isn't delivering. When Elon talks production he is talking about the assembly line to QA. Delivery isn't in that time frame.
So say they make 20,000 in December but it takes them 2 weeks to get them into peoples hands, half of those end up being delivered in January.
I don't see them having back to back record quarters for the S/X or meeting the aggressive ramp up goals (especially sales vs production), but I now see how someone could get there.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
That appears to be a typo in my description, I see 17,650 for 2013 not 14,650. Per insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/2013-sales-chart-final-v6.png
also if you look at the numbers and back it out the 22,200 - 4,550 = 17,650 so the final math used the correct number but the explanation had a typo.
Doesn't matter. Let's start with 132k as of July 1st.
Model S&X 17Q3: 12.5k
Model S&X 17Q4: 12.5k
Model S&X 18Q1: 12.5k
That puts you at 169.5k.
That means to stay under 200k Tesla could only deliver a total of 30k Model 3s in the next 9 months. Not.going.to.happen.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
For all of 2016 Tesla did 47,119 and at the half way point this year it was 20,140. Why do you expect them to increase the rate of US sales of S and X when model 3 is depressing those sales already in the first half of 2017?
I'm expecting less than 20,000 S and X the rest of this year and the balance to be Model 3 production.
You seem to be expecting 25,000 S and X the rest of this year.
As to the Q1 S&X they could focus on Canada/Europe/Asia/Australia orders for Q1 S&X to delay selling S&X to US customers during that quarter. They don't have to avoid S or X sales at all to US customers but if they defer just the few thousand they need to by a few weeks it might get an extra quarter of tax credits.
It just depends on how quick or not quick the Model 3 ramp is. If 3 is a tough slow ramp they can game US vs not US to modify as needed.
If 3 is somehow going to blow the doors off and produce 200,000 in the first quarter it doesn't matter, just ship them to whoever its a record quarter no one will care.
Last edited:
They delivered over 25,000 cars in 17Q1, and over 22,000 in 17Q2. 17Q2 was lower because of 100kWh pack production issues. So lets assume they will do 25k/quarter going forward. And over 50% of those are US deliveries from what I have seen. (Which is were I come up with my 12.5k/Quarter number.)
I say 12.5k/quarter you say 10k/quarter. Either way it makes no difference. The 200k mark will be crossed before 18Q2.
Again you said 160k at the end of this year. Starting with 132k + 20k S&X = 152k. You really think they are only going to deliver 8k Model 3s in the next 6 months?
Starting: 132k
17Q3: 10k
17Q4: 10k
18Q1: 10k
Total S&X: 162k.
That means they can only deliver 38k Model 3s in 9 months. Let's say they deliver none until October, that means in the 6 months of delivering them they would only deliver ~6k/month? (When they plan to exit December at 20k/month?)
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
So for the record you disagree because someone else produced a number that you say is only an estimate but then go on to say you are estimating.
The difference is that he says his number is an estimate, and the way you have been saying it is as if it was a fact.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
No we disagree at several steps in between so your number at the end is not what I'm saying. If you want to do half math and try and put words in my mouth there is not point in me trying to correct you at every step.
It all comes down to how fast 3 ramps and whether they shift S&X deliveries around. I didn't say it was guaranteed, I did say it was a possibility.
I did edit my post above some while you were replying. If you truly want to understand reread my posts with an open mind. If not ignore me.
Yes, @dhanson865. Instead of believing in somebody else's estimate, I prefer to believe in my own estimate because I have access to Tesla's Europe sales numbers because we collect those numbers right here in this forum. Check out this wiki: Tesla Europe Registration Stats
I am expecting a bump in S sales. Now that the 3 is revealed, I think some more buyers will jump ship. Especially those in the market for a loaded performance model may decide that the wait is long enough that they can overcome the small price difference with a S75. Coincidentally, Tesla thinks the same thing because it built up a nice inventory of exactly those cars.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
The numbers on the scorecard are Reconciled on Quarterly Totals when TSLA files the quarterly numbers or annual numbers for the stockholders. How is that not fact?
Revisions/disclaimer to accuracy of prior estimates: The 2016 Model S chart has been adjusted (via US Q3 data leaked directly from Tesla) by 469 units in Q3, and 525 units in Q4. The 2015 chart was adjusted (one time) by 498 units to compensate for confirmed full year numbers. The 2014 sales chart was adjusted (one time – again after the end of the full year of estimates) 611 units to compensate for full year numbers.
I'm not going to go data dive in all the quarterly and annual reports and supporting financial statements to give you current URLs for the data. If you listened to the analyst calls each quarter you would have surely heard them discuss numbers on some of those calls.
Last edited:
@dhanson865, you can use this thread to continue the discussion: Fed tax credit. If you want, create a google sheet with your numbers vs mine so we can compare those easier.
If you have a good idea for a poll to use in the Tesla predictions competition, you can write it here: Tesla Predictions Competition. I participate in that competition as well so if you think something I'm predicting is not accurate, let's turn that into a poll question, we both answer it and you can beat me.
If you have a good idea for a poll to use in the Tesla predictions competition, you can write it here: Tesla Predictions Competition. I participate in that competition as well so if you think something I'm predicting is not accurate, let's turn that into a poll question, we both answer it and you can beat me.
Similar threads
- Article
