Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

[MP3Mike]

The numbers on the scorecard are Reconciled on Quarterly Totals when TSLA files the quarterly numbers for the stockholders. How is that not fact?

Have I missed where Tesla is reporting US deliveries? Can you point me to that?

 

[dhanson865]

Go ahead and download http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...-ED9B0F912622/Q3_16_Update_Letter_-_final.pdf and do the math if you can't get within 1 or 2 cars accuracy for US sales based on the statements made in that quarterly report + other publicly published information you can cross check vs you have no room arguing how many were delivered.

 

[MP3Mike]

Go ahead and download http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...-ED9B0F912622/Q3_16_Update_Letter_-_final.pdf and do the math if you can't get within 1 or 2 cars accuracy for US sales based on the statements made in that quarterly report + other publicly published information you can cross check vs you have no room arguing how many were delivered.

OK, so you it admit it isn't a fact, it is an estimate. Thanks.

 

[dhanson865]

OK, so you it admit it isn't a fact, it is an estimate. Thanks.

You were the one that started with fact. I made the mistake of replying to you using that word in one post but my post prior to that didn't use the word fact. Now that you are done putting words in my mouth, you are welcome.

 

[TEG]

It is looking like location in the USA is having minimal impact on the delivery estimates?

Perhaps proximity to the factory determines where in that 3 month window you are more likely to end up?

 

[JeffK]

I disagree. The 20,140 number is somebody's estimate.
I'm estimating 47,151 Global - 12,038 EU - 9,519 APAC - 1,335 Canada = 24,259 USA in H1 2017.

Troy those numbers are trued up by insideEVs once tesla reports once per quarter. We should get the new numbers in two days.

 

[SureValla]

@Troy I think you should add a tab to the spreadsheet where users can upload the following info

Reserved Time and Date
Region
Owner or not
Date range for $49,000 configuration
Date range for $35,000 configuration
Date range for dual motors

 

[Troy]

@SureValla,

That's a good idea. There is now a tab called "Tesla.com delivery estimates". Users can their data here and I will use it to fine tune the calculations. However, this needs to be current data. Don't enter data you saw on 28 or 29 July because Tesla changed their estimates recently.

 

[mrtian97]

I am expecting a bump in S sales. Now that the 3 is revealed, I think some more buyers will jump ship. Especially those in the market for a loaded performance model may decide that the wait is long enough that they can overcome the small price difference with a S75. Coincidentally, Tesla thinks the same thing because it built up a nice inventory of exactly those cars.

I would disagree with this but we may never know. I believe the MS sales will actually slows down as people now willing to wait for M3 to see for themselves just few more months. I am MS owner and happy with my decision, but for new owner, the difference in cost of MS and M3 has been made larger with discontinued MS 60, then MS 75, which I agree with Tesla strategy. like it or not, it's a tech car, ppl may want to wait to see the latest version of the product which at this time is M3. Either way doesn't matter to me, I may buy the M3 and then resell as I am happy with my MS

 

[SureValla]

@SureValla,

That's a good idea. There is now a tab called "Tesla.com delivery estimates". Users can their data here and I will use it to fine tune the calculations. However, this needs to be current data. Don't enter data you saw on 28 or 29 July because Tesla changed their estimates recently.

great idea

Perhaps a final entry category: "Date data retrieved"

 

[jgillispie]

so the owner benefit is a bump of only a month ahead of non-owners? hmm...

I think since he's west coast he was already farther up. It appears to be a 3 month boost for other places. Waiting in line seems to be at least 1 month better than early online reservations.

 

[DR61]

My Tesla delivery estimate (reservation 4/1/17, California):
Jan-Mar 2018 for long range RWD <<< selected
Small battery: Ap-Jun '18;
Dual motor: Sep-Nov '18.

Add: Not a Tesla owner

 

[SageBrush]

Optimistic Scenario
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019

Yep

 

[mrtian97]

when we take delivery, will we know if we are still under the 200,000th Teslas?

 

[MP3Mike]

when we take delivery, will we know if we are still under the 200,000th Teslas?

No, but that isn't what matters. What matters is if you take delivery by the end of the quarter after the quarter that Tesla hits 200k US Teslas delivered.

And I assume that Tesla will announce what quarter they hit the 200k mark in their ER report, so you will know what matters. (In all likelihood we already know that the $7,500 credit will expire on 6/30/2018.) The problem comes if you order a car and the estimate says June-August 2018, you have no idea if you will get your car in time and you have already committed $3,500 that you can't get back.)

 

[Troy]

when we take delivery, will we know if we are still under the 200,000th Teslas?

This is not certain. You might not know it but you don't need to because there is no limit on units. There is only a date limit which will be triggered by the units. Whoever came up with the rules wrote it in a smart way. If Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q1 2018, full credits will continue until the end of Q2 2018. You will know what the credit amount is before you take delivery. Both the IRS and the EPA have web pages about this. So far no car manufacturer has hit the 200,000 limit but they are reporting the numbers to IRS.

 

[modamoda]

Thanks for keeping me collecting data points.

few thoughts:
- Californians has a lot of advantage of buying AWD
- New owner in certain area has priority over current S/X owner
- Midwest has lowest priority, even compared to East Coast

 

[Foxhound199]

West Coast, non-California, non-owner here. My AWD estimate is July-Sep.

 

[Mike K]

Wait, am I the only person showing a 2019 date? I'm an owner on the west coast but I put down my deposit last week. Still though, I'm showing Q1 2019 on all three builds.

 

[modamoda]

West Coast, non-California, non-owner here. My AWD estimate is July-Sep.

What? That's something weird...

I'm also living in Seattle Area + line waiter + non owner. but my estimator still says Aug-Oct for AWD. I checked it literally 5 sec ago.