Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Model 3 delivery estimator

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Hi, @pxthree. If you were a current owner and you were to reserve now, your delivery estimate would be 12 March 2018 if they don't add the standard range by then or by 24 March 2018 if they add the standard range. However, I don't know if being a previous owner will still get you priority if you reserve after selling the car. There are 4 different owner categories:

Ownership status at reservation time / Ownership status at the time of invites
1. Yes, Yes
2. No, Yes
3. Yes, No
4. No, No

I have seen positive examples for number 2 and 3 but never saw an example for number 4. If you try it, please write back if you get an invite because that would be very interesting. If you still get priority, the estimated invite dates would be 30 days before the dates I mentioned. However, I have no idea whether you will get priority.
 
Last edited:
Hi, @pxthree. If you were a current owner and you were to reserve now, your delivery estimate would be 12 March 2018 if they don't add the standard range by then or by 24 March 2018 if they add the standard range. However, I don't know if being a previous owner will still get you priority if you reserve after selling the car. There are 4 different owner categories:

Ownership status at reservation time / Ownership status at the time of invites
1. Yes, No
2. No, Yes
3. Yes, No
4. No, No

I have seen positive examples for number 2 and 3 but never saw an example for number 4. If you try it, please write back if you get an invite because that would be very interesting. If you still get priority, the estimated invite dates would be 30 days before the dates I mentioned. However, I have no idea whether you will get priority.

I am a #4. I was a previous owner in 2013 that had to sell the car in 2013. Placed reservation on day 1. I got the configuration invite last week (no email). Placed my order and away we go. No doubt prior ownership got me where I was. Little surprised because the (little) information I got over the last few months from the uninformed reps was 'I think you have to be a current owner to get consideration.' Apparently not, and lucky for me...
 
Hi, @pxthree. If you were a current owner and you were to reserve now, your delivery estimate would be 12 March 2018 if they don't add the standard range by then or by 24 March 2018 if they add the standard range. However, I don't know if being a previous owner will still get you priority if you reserve after selling the car. There are 4 different owner categories:
Ownership status at reservation time / Ownership status at the time of invites
1. Yes, No
2. No, Yes
3. Yes, No
4. No, No
I think this is better ... :cool:
Ownership status at reservation time / Ownership status at the time of invites
1. Yes, No
2. No, Yes
3. Yes, Yes
4. No, No
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Troy
Thanks for the info @Troy . I think maybe I miss-typed or was misunderstood. The order was put in on January 15, 2018 as a CURRENT owner of a Model S. Just seemed odd to me that I could possibly jump the line that much with such a late order and possibly receive the Model 3 in March.
Yep that's how it's been going. Owners get priority, period. However, this may change any time and it has been speculated that it will, so keep us posted about your progress.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Rich966
Hi, everybody. I have received some criticism from people who said if owner deliveries were going that well more owners would have received invites who reserved after day 1. But it appears day 1 reservation rate was very high among owners in the US. Here is some interesting data from the model3tracker survey:

keLn92Z.gif


I have looked at the first 8 days from 31 March to 7 April 2016. Within these 8 days, 44.3% of reservations happened on 31 March 2016 based on Tesla's global numbers. However, Model3Tracker survey shows 79.9% for day 1 reservations by US owners.

By the way, the next batch of invites is expected on 30 January 2018. The gap was 13 days between 22 Dec and 4 Jan batches. Then it was again 13 days between 4 Jan and 17 Jan batches. The owner delivery rate for the current configuration is 30%. On 30 Jan, it will be 40%. I don't think we will see any non-owner invites on 30 Jan.

On 13 February, the owner delivery rate is expected to be 75%. Therefore some of the 13 February invites should include non-owners or they should add more options like more interior colors, standard range or non-PUP. I have no idea whether Tesla will add more options first or sent invites to non-owners first. There are good arguments for both cases.

This is what I said in the predictions thread a few days ago. I wish I had said 15 Feb, instead of 10 Feb. I might lose that one by a few days.
  • I predict that by 10 Feb 2018 Tesla will either make the Model 3 SR available in the configurator or they will make the AWD available or they will send out the first batch of invites to non-owners.
 
Hi, everybody. I have received some criticism from people who said if owner deliveries were going that well more owners would have received invites who reserved after day 1. But it appears day 1 reservation rate was very high among owners in the US. Here is some interesting data from the model3tracker survey:

keLn92Z.gif


I have looked at the first 8 days from 31 March to 7 April 2016. Within these 8 days, 44.3% of reservations happened on 31 March 2016 based on Tesla's global numbers. However, Model3Tracker survey shows 79.9% for day 1 reservations by US owners.

By the way, the next batch of invites is expected on 30 January 2018. The gap was 13 days between 22 Dec and 4 Jan batches. Then it was again 13 days between 4 Jan and 17 Jan batches. The owner delivery rate for the current configuration is 30%. On 30 Jan, it will be 40%. I don't think we will see any non-owner invites on 30 Jan.

On 13 February, the owner delivery rate is expected to be 75%. Therefore some of the 13 February invites should include non-owners or they should add more options like more interior colors, standard range or non-PUP. I have no idea whether Tesla will add more options first or sent invites to non-owners first. There are good arguments for both cases.

This is what I said in the predictions thread a few days ago. I wish I had said 15 Feb, instead of 10 Feb. I might lose that one by a few days.
  • I predict that by 10 Feb 2018 Tesla will either make the Model 3 SR available in the configurator or they will make the AWD available or they will send out the first batch of invites to non-owners.
I'm expectant of another delay on Tesla's delivery estimate to January-March 2018 any day now. That will put it in line with your estimator (finally).
 
Have you been checking the reservation website daily? How frequently, if not daily? Trying to get a sense of whether Tesla is turning on the configurator more often than once every ~two week batches.

Definitely a new batch went out today. I'm seeing a lot of posts on M3OC where people who check at least daily are able to configure in the past hour. So pretty much exactly one week from the last batch. One of them received a VIN close to (but not quite) 6000.
 
@GadgetGeek407 is another example of a previous owner who sold (4 months ago) but still got priority access on Model 3 ordering.
I don't think this is surprising. Priority was given for prior support of Tesla by previously buying a Tesla. People who have sold their Teslas supported the company just like any of us who still own the cars. (Of course we are continuing to service our cars at Tesla -- but Tesla claims service is not a profit center.)
 
  • Like
Reactions: suwaneedad