The Bay Area extended their shutdown through May 31st so it appears that Tesla will not be producing any cars in Fremont for at least another month. Tesla still has over 1,000 Model 3’s in North American inventory so it does not appear the shutdown is having much affect on demand. It will be interesting to see who blinks first - buyers holding out for a discount or Tesla wanting to clear their inventory before EOQ.
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Model 3 inventories up -- any deals happening?
- Thread starter Robert A
- Start date
I'm hoping they discount OTA upgrades for EOQ. Got a new credit card ready to go!
SDM44
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Just a few weeks ago (1st week of April, there were closer to 3000 Model 3's available. I would say that it's crazy to see that almost 2000 in stock Model 3's where purchased & delivered during these past few weeks, especially in today's economy.
However, there's been a lot of hype lately with EV's and Tesla cars being the 'go to' route if you're looking to purchase a car right now or in the near future. Along with that, and the news about the Bay Area stay-at-home order being extended until the end of May, including the Fremont factory not being able to produce new cars during that time, I wouldn't be surprised to see those 1000 in-stock Model 3's sell out before the end of May.
Side note - I'm really now glad I bought my car when I did (on 3/31). I thought about waiting a month (purchase in late May) since we're working from home, but now happy I got my car when I did. At that time, there were maybe 8-9 other cars with the same spec in So Cal, and many more all over CA. Now, there are none in CA, and the handful that are available in the US are all on the East Coast.
Tesla has reached out to schedule my delayed delivery for the end of June. I'm fine paying the original price, but I thought I'd get some second opinions.
Is there any reason that anyone can think of that I should delay my order? Especially, should I wait until after the "battery and powertrain day" that might happen in May to see if there are any hints about product roadmap that would lead me to want to defer?
Secondly, does given that new car demand could fall significantly in Q2 and Q3 of this year and possibly beyond that, does anything think we'll eventually see some incentives as we go from being supply constrained to demand constrained as the factory reopens and gets ramped up? Right now, I completely agree that Tesla is being constrained by the factory shutdown and there is a lot of pent up demand. Once the factory ramps up, I think we'll reach a tipping point where the economic situation trumps the order backlog and we'll see significant cancellations and deferrals. While I don't expect major discounts in purchase price, I could see a few years of free supercharging, an extension of free premium connectivity, or possibly FSD incentives. I know it's just speculation from all of us at this point, but I wanted to see what everyone thought. In particular, I would jump at FSD for a price reduction since "Feature Complete" FSD is probably worth $4-5k to me based on my personal use cases.
Is there any reason that anyone can think of that I should delay my order? Especially, should I wait until after the "battery and powertrain day" that might happen in May to see if there are any hints about product roadmap that would lead me to want to defer?
Secondly, does given that new car demand could fall significantly in Q2 and Q3 of this year and possibly beyond that, does anything think we'll eventually see some incentives as we go from being supply constrained to demand constrained as the factory reopens and gets ramped up? Right now, I completely agree that Tesla is being constrained by the factory shutdown and there is a lot of pent up demand. Once the factory ramps up, I think we'll reach a tipping point where the economic situation trumps the order backlog and we'll see significant cancellations and deferrals. While I don't expect major discounts in purchase price, I could see a few years of free supercharging, an extension of free premium connectivity, or possibly FSD incentives. I know it's just speculation from all of us at this point, but I wanted to see what everyone thought. In particular, I would jump at FSD for a price reduction since "Feature Complete" FSD is probably worth $4-5k to me based on my personal use cases.
I would do a wait and see approach, you'd only be out $100. I played this waiting game for the MR, then bought the black SR for the lowest post tax rebate price.
Esp .for the model 3 it's a relatively price sensitive buyer. I would expect some cancellations and deferrals. Any hopes of V shaped recovery seem slim.
I bought an inventory car a week ago that I think was a good deal in relativity to the present model 3 market. It was about 2k discount for a 300 mile car that looked every bit untouched.
That said I believe end of q2, q3, and especially end of q3 will see some type of incentives for sure. Tesla is not immune to this horrendous economic situation. You already see legacy car makers offering steep discounts and no interest 84 (!) month loans. Is Tesla different? Yes, but there is no way they are immune to this. The model 3 inventory will be there when the economy and production opens and the buyers will not.
I think the play is to wait. I intended to wait at least until the end of the quarter but I got impatient after debating the Purchase 6-9 months. Love the car so far so I don’t regret it.
If the economy begins to open up fairly quickly people will start buying cars again. I think we will have a better idea in about 30 days given that many starts are beginning to loosen restrictions. Model 3’s are not exactly selling quickly now. But I don’t see any major discounts on the horizon so if you need a car I wouldn’t overthink it. If you are not in a rush, give it 30 days.
Existing inventory cars are down by a lot in the SF Bay area. Wonder if they're mucking around again in the system like many suspect?
(I'm not one of those suspicious btw, just to be clear)
(I'm not one of those suspicious btw, just to be clear)
ElectricIAC
Good-Natured Rascal
I’m sure they are. At the same time though I don’t doubt people are starting to buy cars again.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
I've taken public transportation to work every day for the last 5 years, and once my office opens back up I'm probably going to try driving to work (at least until a vaccine is mass produced). There probably millions of carless millennials having the same thoughts as me right now, and I bet many of them are considering electric vehicles.
Where's all the doubters now? I see prices just dropped for most models.
Makes me glad I didn't pull the trigger on a showroom inventory model last week for a $1.6K discount!
It's hard to parse out what actually caused them to drop the price (demand, macroeconomics, battery cost improvements, general manufacturing profit margin improvements, etc.) but I do like the idea of keeping the cost the same and adding features.
The interesting thing is that Tesla has consistently been removing hardware (Homelink, 14-50 charging adapter, usb charging cables, Frunk mat, frunk hooks, pocket lights, dimming mirrors) but they could effectively make up for this at no cost with software features.
I say add NOA to Basic autopilot package that is included in cost of car- at least I would find this valuable seeing as Tesla has resisted making FSD features avalaible a la carte
They win either way in the end, more cars out there means more people giving them money for subscription services. I think that the reason they decreased three fold:
1) Production restarted, lots are getting filled, demand is down due to COVID and also MY sparking interest with people being more interested in that car over M3 (a lot even trading in their M3's at a pretty decent loss to get into MY). They dont want to sit on lots full of idle cars. Especially since it would be a huge overhead to keep their batteries charged. Imagine a lot of a few thousand cars, and you have to make sure none of them deplete to 0%. By the time you are done with 1000th car you gotta go back and start at number 1 again... thats a minor reason, but still a reason... more significant reasons would be lot space for other cars (like MY), and they get nothing from sitting on lots of cars. More cars out there means more subscription money to them (especially once FSD becomes subscription).
2) They raised the price late last year so that they could lower it now to keep the car the same price from buyer's perspective as it was with the federal incentive. They just waited 6 months to do it as to not piss off customers that ordered late 2019 have been getting their cars last few months. This far out puts significant enough time gap to not piss those people off.
3) As already mentioned in point (1) people are getting more interested in MY, M3 pricing and MY were way too close in my opinion. $4k. This makes gap a bit larger ($6k), which should re-spark interest in M3.
In the end, we know Tesla always drops prices when incentives go away... so here is that.
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