Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[Brando]

NO RESERVATION buyer in Q4 2018

I THINK (quick google search failed to find article for me, you?) I have read 40% of Q4 sales were to none reservation holders. This fact would seem to explain why number of buyers NOT getting promotional supercharging (i.e. no referral code used) is so high.

Model 3 owners club in Canada even complained that they were not getting enough referral code useage and asking buyers why not?
BUT, if it is the non-reservation holders, those people probably don't know much about Tesla and more of a what? impulse buy??
This is a brilliant way for Tesla to maintain sales numbers, keep selling/making more expensive/higher margin cars. Go Tesla.

AND since these buyers may well not be long time Tesla watchers, that would help explain why spreadsheet use is so low, right?

 

[bonaire]

NO RESERVATION buyer in Q4 2018

I THINK (quick google search failed to find article for me, you?) I have read 40% of Q4 sales were to none reservation holders. This fact would seem to explain why number of buyers NOT getting promotional supercharging (i.e. no referral code used) is so high.

Model 3 owners club in Canada even complained that they were not getting enough referral code useage and asking buyers why not?
BUT, if it is the non-reservation holders, those people probably don't know much about Tesla and more of a what? impulse buy??
This is a brilliant way for Tesla to maintain sales numbers, keep selling/making more expensive/higher margin cars. Go Tesla.

AND since these buyers may well not be long time Tesla watchers, that would help explain why spreadsheet use is so low, right?

Sounds about right. Where some buyers are impulse, some are just resigned to "finally stop in and check out Tesla" and so on. I don't know about referral use but it would be part of "community push" of friends and family to get sales done via referral situations. However, what this may also define is a type of fad-building. Where some see the novelty and want to participate. Others see that it looks like Tesla is finally making-it and becoming established and they break distrust and go in and buy one. Some call it "fear of missing out" or FOMO of some people who fear not owning a Tesla when they can do so. Some stretch to buy. One guy said he spend all his life savings on buying one. This is a type of phenomenon of sometimes irrational choices. I don't want to really see any company taking someone's life savings. It's much like a casino wanting to take all your money when you walk in the door. The value of a car is definitely more than a casino and does produce years of driving value. However, we all know that buying one is beyond a rational decision and goes into the area of buying a cottage (ie. Canadians buying a cottage for summer use) or a beach house in the USA. Depreciation of a car after it is bought new also comes into play. Tesla will continue to grow as long as value is being seen by the buyers and FOMO and YOLO exist and the economy stays strong.

Looking at the spreadsheet for the "bears" is seen as a sign of low sales. Yet, Q4 had good sales. Q1 would look horrible if some judge just by the spreadsheet. The only way to know what sales really are probably would come only by working at Tesla or video-taping the output of the factory and counting.

 

[Brando]

Sounds about right. Where some buyers are impulse, some are just resigned to "finally stop in and check out Tesla" and so on. I don't know about referral use but it would be part of "community push" of friends and family to get sales done via referral situations. However, what this may also define is a type of fad-building. Where some see the novelty and want to participate. Others see that it looks like Tesla is finally making-it and becoming established and they break distrust and go in and buy one. Some call it "fear of missing out" or FOMO of some people who fear not owning a Tesla when they can do so. Some stretch to buy. One guy said he spend all his life savings on buying one. This is a type of phenomenon of sometimes irrational choices. I don't want to really see any company taking someone's life savings. It's much like a casino wanting to take all your money when you walk in the door. The value of a car is definitely more than a casino and does produce years of driving value. However, we all know that buying one is beyond a rational decision and goes into the area of buying a cottage (ie. Canadians buying a cottage for summer use) or a beach house in the USA. Depreciation of a car after it is bought new also comes into play. Tesla will continue to grow as long as value is being seen by the buyers and FOMO and YOLO exist and the economy stays strong.

Looking at the spreadsheet for the "bears" is seen as a sign of low sales. Yet, Q4 had good sales. Q1 would look horrible if some judge just by the spreadsheet. The only way to know what sales really are probably would come only by working at Tesla or video-taping the output of the factory and counting.

I never bought a new car - always used and only twice - Saab '76 in '78 and '89 in '90.
I can only hope those who've already spent life savings will keep those cars for at least 30 years (or million miles?) and they may save enough ?? good luck to those buyers for sure

thanks for thoughtful post.

 

[bonaire]

For those who bought off the lot in December and are new to TMC, consider adding your data to the Model 3 tracker anyway.
It allows Troy to fill in any VIN gaps and determine some data for forward thoughts on production rates of the past quarter.

Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #1

 

[Ron2andia]

NO RESERVATION buyer in Q4 2018

I THINK (quick google search failed to find article for me, you?) I have read 40% of Q4 sales were to none reservation holders. This fact would seem to explain why number of buyers NOT getting promotional supercharging (i.e. no referral code used) is so high.

Model 3 owners club in Canada even complained that they were not getting enough referral code useage and asking buyers why not?
BUT, if it is the non-reservation holders, those people probably don't know much about Tesla and more of a what? impulse buy??
This is a brilliant way for Tesla to maintain sales numbers, keep selling/making more expensive/higher margin cars. Go Tesla.

AND since these buyers may well not be long time Tesla watchers, that would help explain why spreadsheet use is so low, right?

It’s not a real stat... I was a reservation holder but the money in that did not go toward the car I bought. The salesman said it happens all the time and prompted me to cancel the reservation. Still waiting on that money to get returned. Bought on 12/31/18.

 

[Brando]

It’s not a real stat... I was a reservation holder but the money in that did not go toward the car I bought. The salesman said it happens all the time and prompted me to cancel the reservation. Still waiting on that money to get returned. Bought on 12/31/18.

you'll be interested in this letter - one page
Tesla Q4 2018 Vehicle Production & Deliveries, Also Announcing $2,000 Price Reduction in US | Tesla, Inc.

 

[bonaire]

Not much happening with the Model 3 tracker since the turn of the year.

Any recent orders? Or are people just buying off the showroom lot directly without ordering?

Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #1

 

[lensovet]

Early adopter crowd is gone
“Regular people” aren’t going to bother putting their info into some spreadsheet

 

[bonaire]

Early Adopters participated in S+X sheets for years, but also EU and China (if they read TMC) also were involved with S+X for years but fairly few Model 3 involved in Troy's Model 3 tracker. This is an interesting time.

 

[SiNiSon]

Jan 21 Order (day one deposit just been fence sitting) M3P+ EAP

Saying 3rd week Feb currently status is Production.. so not stock I guess?

S

 

[Gpa9504]

I ordered 5 minutes ago. On my Tesla account page it is saying Prepare for Delivery. Guess I can expect a car fairly soon. I put my data in the spreadsheet. Model 3 performance. Second to ‘round with Tesla. Hope it’s better than the first!

 

[NoHubBub]

Just ordered a LR, dual motor midnight silver metallic from Vermont. It's saying February delivery -- glad it's a short month. Very excited!

 

[Deslah]

Not much happening with the Model 3 tracker since the turn of the year.

Any recent orders? Or are people just buying off the showroom lot directly without ordering?

Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker #1

Order and taking delivery next week, but no private Google account so I won't be adding to the tracker for a while

 

[DurandalAI]

Ordered black ext, black int, dual motor LR on 02/20/2019. No VIN, have received "Next Steps" email, but unable to proceed past providing delivery location zip code.

 

[MakeUSGreat]

Any word on 2019 AWD, and Performance models, seems that they aren’t making any. Or they are been shipped without assigned Vins.

 

[suwaneedad]

@Troy any gut feel on pricing for Model Y, and what deposit framework Tesla will put in place this time around?
Here's my dream announcement on 3/14:
"Deposits of a minimum of $1k, and a maximum of $50k, can be placed starting today at tesla.com. Subject to operational constraints, larger deposits will be invited to configure first, smaller deposits later. This will roughly follow our usual pattern of Western customers and flowing East in the US, then Canada, and so on. Deposits placed by March 31, 2019 will also be assured of AP/FSD pricing not being higher when you configure than it is today, as a token of our appreciation for you placing your deposit now."
This approach enables raising more than just $1k/vehicle, and even just 200k depositors at say $5k would generate $1B for Tesla to make use of. I like this approach a lot, in no small part because it would deliver a "hard core smackdown" to Wall Street, which remains sour on Tesla in part because Tesla has stopped playing the Wall Street capital raise game. Why pay Wall Street for money when your customers are willing to fund the product development and production ramp?!

 

[Troy]

@Troy any gut feel on pricing for Model Y

$5K more than Model 3. I would expect the following:

• Model Y LR AWP: 47+5= $52,000 before options
• Model Y Performance: 58+5= $63,000 before options

 

[wyc00948111]

Does this Model 3 Order Tracker Spreadsheet stop getting updated？ I remember I can find the estimate of e.g. weekly productoin last December. It seems there is no longer this number since 2019. Not sure if I miss something?

 

[MakeUSGreat]

When did this post become about Model Y, there is a section for that. And I think it hasn’t been updated because they aren’t making USA cars.

 

[DurandalAI]

Any word on 2019 AWD, and Performance models, seems that they aren’t making any. Or they are been shipped without assigned Vins.

I do have a VIN for my 2019 dual motor Model 3, I should take delivery late this week.