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tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
Looks like your basic exponentially charging (RC) shape:
Reservations = (Total_Reservations@infinity)*(1-exp(-time/Time_constant))
When I get some time, I'll fit that curve to the equation and see what I get for the Final Total Reservations and the Time_constant.
I just reserved a Model 3 today. I'm assuming it will take years to get it. 325,000 in front of me. That will give me time to learn about Tesla. I'm coming from an Audi A3 2015.
Yeah, looks like that. However, I would guess that this curve will not go to a constant (which would mean no additional reservations coming in any more), but a constant slope in the mid term (before the second part of the reveal or any other substantial news re Model 3). Also, be careful about extrapolating data of one week to infinity
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tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
But if the new reservations are a trickle, it might be matched by some drop outs. In this case, I'm calling infinity 6-9 months.Yeah, looks like that. However, I would guess that this curve will not go to a constant (which would mean no additional reservations coming in any more), but a constant slope in the mid term (before the second part of the reveal or any other substantial news re Model 3). Also, be careful about extrapolating data of one week to infinity
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
Exponential graph looks like it topped out. Any orders/cancellations after this point will fit a different equation.
Orders = 320,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs))
Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996
Orders = 320,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs))
Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996
Interesting, Tesla does a lot to test safety...wonder who was the previous owner of that Model S.
david_42
Member
I suspect fairly large. I for one, am waiting for the "it won't be a hatchback", because a sedan really doesn't meet our needs.
I also think there are a lot of people taking the wait and see approach. I know one guy who went, checkbook in hand, to a store to reserve on 3/31, but then left when he saw the line. He says he's been thinking about reserving, but since there are already so many reservations he's going to wait to find out more before deciding. He also said that he figures since there are already so many reservations there's no way he's going to qualify for the US Federal Tax Credit, so he may not be able to afford it. I also know someone else who's thinking about reserving, but just waiting for some reason. I know three people who've put in reservations (other than me).
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
I know some well heeled people who didn't know too much about this first hand. They are going to put in for one or two models. I'm not sure why as i see them in a model S much more than a model 3. Once 100,000 people are driving these and the news (assuming positive) gets out, there should be a third wave. The second wave would be after they have their 2nd reveal. Just looking into my crystal ball...
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Yep, I think of them as the BMW wannabees, although I'm not sure how many will actually buy when it is realized that the tax credit has elapsed. Of course by then the M3 may be cheaper and then Tesla will take over the world.
jeewee3000
Active Member
After a lot of doubt I reserved my Model 3 today. So that's +1 to the reservation tally .
The point of my post is that many others will be like me and order a Model 3 between now and the 2nd reveal.
Possible reasons for this:
- wanting not to reserve "right away" to get a finalized product without early bugs;
- not wanting to put 1000$ aside for two years, since you could be investing that money and gain a profit (the later you reserve, the less long you have no access to that money);
- considering the above from the getgo, but then getting scared that you might only get a Model 3 by 2020, so you crack under the pressure and just 'reserve it, 'cause at least it is fully refundable whenever you want'.
So the growth of reservations will be a lot smaller now, but the growth will always be there.
.The point of my post is that many others will be like me and order a Model 3 between now and the 2nd reveal.
Possible reasons for this:
- wanting not to reserve "right away" to get a finalized product without early bugs;
- not wanting to put 1000$ aside for two years, since you could be investing that money and gain a profit (the later you reserve, the less long you have no access to that money);
- considering the above from the getgo, but then getting scared that you might only get a Model 3 by 2020, so you crack under the pressure and just 'reserve it, 'cause at least it is fully refundable whenever you want'.
So the growth of reservations will be a lot smaller now, but the growth will always be there.
So after poking around a bit, as a new Tesla fan who reserved a Model 3 late. I have some questions and observations.
What has been done already with the Roadster, Model S, X has been amazing! The Supercharger network is totally cool, Tesla has paved the way for real EC acceptance-- which is part of the reason I'm here.
The Model 3 is a game changer. It got my attension as it is in the price range of my typical new car. I've been driving BMW 3-series and I currently own an Audi A3. I like cars and technology, but am conserviative in how I spend my money.
So now the questions.
I was number 325K + 1 in signing up for the Model 3. How long is it really going to take me to get this car? I have a 2015 Audi A3 which I really like, I signed up for the Model 3 because I anticipate it will take as long to get it as I typically keep a car which is 4 to 6 years. I want to switch to a better car for the environment and I think EC is the future and Tesla is leading the way.
1) Can the Supercharger network really handle 325k new customers even with the current published expansion?
2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?
3) How much does it really cost to own a Tesla? Is the cost to charge my car lower than what I'm paying for gasoline?
4) Is it really better for the environment? I live in Indianapolis and have options to switch to renewable energy sources, but most of our electricity come from coal.
5) I'm used to doing business with automotive companies that have dealerships in my city. Tesla has a store at one of our malls but does not have other resources near by. How will I service my car? With 14 billion dollars in anticipated sales is it going to change before I get my car?
What has been done already with the Roadster, Model S, X has been amazing! The Supercharger network is totally cool, Tesla has paved the way for real EC acceptance-- which is part of the reason I'm here.
The Model 3 is a game changer. It got my attension as it is in the price range of my typical new car. I've been driving BMW 3-series and I currently own an Audi A3. I like cars and technology, but am conserviative in how I spend my money.
So now the questions.
I was number 325K + 1 in signing up for the Model 3. How long is it really going to take me to get this car? I have a 2015 Audi A3 which I really like, I signed up for the Model 3 because I anticipate it will take as long to get it as I typically keep a car which is 4 to 6 years. I want to switch to a better car for the environment and I think EC is the future and Tesla is leading the way.
1) Can the Supercharger network really handle 325k new customers even with the current published expansion?
2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?
3) How much does it really cost to own a Tesla? Is the cost to charge my car lower than what I'm paying for gasoline?
4) Is it really better for the environment? I live in Indianapolis and have options to switch to renewable energy sources, but most of our electricity come from coal.
5) I'm used to doing business with automotive companies that have dealerships in my city. Tesla has a store at one of our malls but does not have other resources near by. How will I service my car? With 14 billion dollars in anticipated sales is it going to change before I get my car?
Dave Garaffa
Member
Just some clarification ... The supercharger network isn't _intended_ to be used for _local_ use/users.
In other words driving to the mall 20 miles or from a home in NJ to your office in NYC some 30 miles door to door is not a good reason to use the mall or parking garages super charger. The tips would be considered 'local driving' and it is expected you would recharge AT HOME at the end of the day. Now yes you could still use the chargers but it would be frowned upon if you made a regular thing.
Driving from NJ to NC .. Okay _that's_ a perfect reason to use the chargers in DC / PA / VA and it EXACTLY what the super charger network was created for.
In other words driving to the mall 20 miles or from a home in NJ to your office in NYC some 30 miles door to door is not a good reason to use the mall or parking garages super charger. The tips would be considered 'local driving' and it is expected you would recharge AT HOME at the end of the day. Now yes you could still use the chargers but it would be frowned upon if you made a regular thing.
Driving from NJ to NC .. Okay _that's_ a perfect reason to use the chargers in DC / PA / VA and it EXACTLY what the super charger network was created for.
Edgewood Dome
Member
1) The Super Chargers are really for long distance travel and probably will handle it. 99% of owners charge at home almost exclusively. Tesla has added stalls to existing sites when they were consistently full.
2) You'll need to do some investigation of your breaker panel and also calculate how much you will need to add each charging session in terms of Rated Miles and how long your normal charging session will last. You will probably need to update the panel to have available a 50 amp breaker at 240vac. With that and a simple RV outlet (14-50 plug) you can charge at about 28 miles of added Rated Miles per hour. So if you drive 150 miles in a day, it would take a little over 5 hours to replenish what you drove, easy to do overnight.
3) Cost is less because electric motors are far more efficient, but how much less depends on your current utility $ rate per kWh. Almost no maintenance except tires. I live in Washington State and pay about $0.1/kWh and my gas bill was about $160/month, Electric Utility bill went up about $50 to $60/month. You will drive more with your Tesla than an ICE because it is way more fun, really. Everyone that owns one has reported driving more than before. You will think of reasons to go to the store, take long road trips, etc.
4) Even if your electricity comes from coal, an EV is better than an ICE for the environment. Regulations on coal plants keep making them better too, will they ever be good, no, but they are getting better. It's way easier to add pollution controls to a single coal plant than make all of the ICE cars in the area have lower emissions. Also, again an Electric motor is far more efficient than an ICE, so it takes much less energy to "fill the tank".
5) There is a Service Center opening soon in downtown Indy. Should be there by the time you get a Model 3.
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
I'd also add that I'd prefer to use coal instead of imported oil if given the choice between the two options. Coal will eventually go away. So will gasoline, but that will take longer. You'll be surprised at how nice it is not to have to stop at a gas station.
as a possible real world bad example. I have been driving a "It_who_mustnot_benamedPHEv" for 28 months and have a house built in about 1955. I drove about 20-40 miles a day (i kept a spreadsheet for 15 months). I went to harbor freight, bought an Orange, 10 guage extension cord, plugged into a 110v outlet, set vehicle at 12amps and 95% of time sufficient. just keep it charged up. 10 seconds to plug in. would have got 240v EVSE except moving and house will be McMansioned/bulldozed. it can be that simple. As for 2, not sure about that
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