Wiki Model 3 Reservation Tally

[BlairC]

Electric Utility bill went up about $50 to $60/month.

Are you saying that it is costing you $50-$60 / month to charge your Tesla? If yes, how many miles are you driving it / month? How often are you charging? How much electricity does it take to charge your vehicle (and what is average capacity left when you plug it in) each time? (from what % to what %?)

Trying to get a feel for how much it will cost/charge at home. My commute home -> work is 40 miles round trip. If I take our son to lacrosse practice (2x/week) that's another 20 round trip. If I go out to lunch, another 10, so 40-70 miles / day. Probably 250 miles on an average week. Figure I'd charge every other day, so 3-4x/week. Average spend / month on gas for my 2005 Nissan Aramada right now is about $160/month. Approximately a $40 fill-up every week (20 gallons).

 

[MikeFromCavite]

Add me 1 to the tally. Just did my reservation today and hopefully i still get the tax credit +Crossfingers+.

 

[theganjaguru]

Close to 400,000 reservations! Thought I was at the end of the line. Not anymore!
Tesla Vice President says Model 3 reservations are ‘approaching 400,000’, real success will be delivery

 

[Rwolf01]

Exponential graph looks like it topped out. Any orders/cancellations after this point will fit a different equation.
View attachment 171938
Orders = 320,000(1-exp(-hours/29hrs))
Rsquare goodness of fit is 0.996

Try adding a linear term and this latest data point. I have fewer observations than you did, but could still justify it in terms of reducing chi^2/DOF. 10.66k/day is a good starting guess on the linear term.

Here it is hacked up in Excel. X-axis is days, Y is reservation in thousands.

You have a larger set of observations, and better statistical SW, so I'd like to see what a linear term does to your fit. Can you get error bars on the fit parameters? thanks.

 

[Boourns]

Close to 400,000 reservations! Thought I was at the end of the line. Not anymore!
Tesla Vice President says Model 3 reservations are ‘approaching 400,000’, real success will be delivery

Wow.

 

[longshadows]

325K reservations? Nice, but as the months pass, how many will cancel and request a refund due to reality setting in? Some may see no way to pay for this level of car and have to cancel. Some employment/financial circumstances may change and that $1,000 needed elsewhere. Some may lose their ardor, when they learn that the final car is not quite what they want. Any number of life events and human circumstance can transpire over the next couple of years to see that mystical queue, in which we find ourselves, slowly shortening. Hang in there. It's a crap-shot, but so is much of life.

 

[dhanson865]

So after poking around a bit, as a new Tesla fan who reserved a Model 3 late. I have some questions and observations.

What has been done already with the Roadster, Model S, X has been amazing! The Supercharger network is totally cool, Tesla has paved the way for real EC acceptance-- which is part of the reason I'm here.

The Model 3 is a game changer. It got my attension as it is in the price range of my typical new car. I've been driving BMW 3-series and I currently own an Audi A3. I like cars and technology, but am conserviative in how I spend my money.

So now the questions.

I was number 325K + 1 in signing up for the Model 3. How long is it really going to take me to get this car? I have a 2015 Audi A3 which I really like, I signed up for the Model 3 because I anticipate it will take as long to get it as I typically keep a car which is 4 to 6 years. I want to switch to a better car for the environment and I think EC is the future and Tesla is leading the way.

1) Can the Supercharger network really handle 325k new customers even with the current published expansion?
2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?
3) How much does it really cost to own a Tesla? Is the cost to charge my car lower than what I'm paying for gasoline?
4) Is it really better for the environment? I live in Indianapolis and have options to switch to renewable energy sources, but most of our electricity come from coal.
5) I'm used to doing business with automotive companies that have dealerships in my city. Tesla has a store at one of our malls but does not have other resources near by. How will I service my car? With 14 billion dollars in anticipated sales is it going to change before I get my car?

I pay 10 cents per kWh for electricity and get to drive for 2 cents per mile at that rate. If you are a lead foot you might pay 3 cents per mile vs my 2 cents per mile. If you pay more for electricity multiply vs my 10 cents per kWh.

I'm pretty sure you'll see a huge savings vs gas.

As to the environment if your cost per mile is cheaper its a win/win. The only way it would be worse for the environment is if you were doing something goofy weird to get your electricity like running a portable generator and living off grid and for some reason avoiding Solar PV.

Any house that has 120V and 240V service can charge an EV, If you have circuit breakers you can do it easier, if you are still on fuses you've got a lot of work to do. Assuming your 50s house has already been upgraded to any sort of proper breaker setup you can charge at some rate. Find out your max pannel breaker (100A , 200A whatever the service breaker is) and you'll have an idea what you are working with.

Replace any incandescent or fluorescent bulbs you haven't replaced yet with LED bulbs in the 90+ lumens per watt range and you'll lower the demand on the 50s wiring. Add insulation and weatherstripping and such to seal the house up so you aren't wasting electricity on heat/air/humidifier/dehumidifier/air purifier and such and you'll save more.

I'll say supercharging will be a non issue, you'll charge at home or on other chargers if the supercharger network isn't convenient. Just get the car and figure that out depending on your travel and habits.

Service will be a wait and see issue. That's the only one I can't answer.

 

[Krohleder]

400,000 Tesla Model 3 reservations! United States current total electric vehicles, sold from 2008 through December 2015, is about 410,000. Which is about 33% of total global EVs. That is a huge market share if it materializes!

 

[smartypnz]

Cost for us per mile is approx 2-3 cents/mile. As opposed to our BMW which is approx 13 cents/mile.

Superchargers of course are zero, but what I am giving here is our home charging.

 

[david_42]

2) I live in an older 1950's house, can I upgrade my electrical system to use a Tesla charger? What if my partner wants one too? Can we do two?

You'll have to do as I did when I put A/C into a 1940s house, upgrade the service panel. That will probably include heavier conductors from the utility poles. All of the existing circuits will just be re-connected in the new panel. In my current house, the panel was upgraded in the '80s when an addition was built, so I have more than enough juice to handle their largest home charger.

 

[Daliman]

400,000 in two weeks! That would be an amazing number if they were selling chocolate bars for 50 cents instead of a place in line for a $ 40,000 car that no one will receive for 18 months. It seems likely at this rate that the number will approach 1 million before the first delivery, a frightening task for the production team. If they can deliver on time imagine how that number is going to grow when friends and family of owners start to give them rides and expose millions of people to the experience of a quiet, fast, exciting, self driving mid level sedan.

In Ontario we pay up to 17 cents/ Kwh for electricity and even charging at night is 8 cents. Solar panels are going to be part of this purchase, which will add to the short term cost but take my house off the grid and my vehicle permanently away from the gas station. I will carefully track how long it takes for these moves to pay for themselves.

 

[Woosie]

Are you saying that it is costing you $50-$60 / month to charge your Tesla? If yes, how many miles are you driving it / month? How often are you charging? How much electricity does it take to charge your vehicle (and what is average capacity left when you plug it in) each time? (from what % to what %?)

Trying to get a feel for how much it will cost/charge at home. My commute home -> work is 40 miles round trip. If I take our son to lacrosse practice (2x/week) that's another 20 round trip. If I go out to lunch, another 10, so 40-70 miles / day. Probably 250 miles on an average week. Figure I'd charge every other day, so 3-4x/week. Average spend / month on gas for my 2005 Nissan Aramada right now is about $160/month. Approximately a $40 fill-up every week (20 gallons).

I came from leasing a Nissan Leaf for three years; it replaced a Nissan Maxima that got about 20 mpg. I paid approx $160/mo in SoCal for gasoline and replaced that with a $40/mo electricity cost for the Leaf. This is for a 40-60 mile daily commute.

While waiting for the Tesla to show I drive a used Toyota Prius. I hate getting gas and dream of getting SWMBO a Model X, to retire the 2007 Toyota Highlander hybrid.

I plugged the Leaf into the garage 110VAC outlet @13A with no problems (I had the house rewired during a 2nd story construction in 1997). For the Model 3 I've reserved I'll use a 50A 240VAC outlet from a dedicated circuit breaker. It'll cost $300 or so to install and pay for a code inspection, as well as the extension cord (you can find them listed in this website and purchase on Amazon).

The Tesla will be a revelation to you; I can't reiterate how nice it is to plug in at night and leaving with plenty of range in the morning; this takes 10 second at most. These cars are SO QUIET it's simply breathtaking. And of course there's tons of benefits to society as well.

I might go whole hog and install solar too, to offsite most/all of the electricity I need. After all I live in sunny SoCal!!

Enjoy the car - you won't regret it!!

 

[vinnie97]

400,000 in two weeks! That would be an amazing number if they were selling chocolate bars for 50 cents instead of a place in line for a $ 40,000 car that no one will receive for 18 months. It seems likely at this rate that the number will approach 1 million before the first delivery, a frightening task for the production team. If they can deliver on time imagine how that number is going to grow when friends and family of owners start to give them rides and expose millions of people to the experience of a quiet, fast, exciting, self driving mid level sedan.

In Ontario we pay up to 17 cents/ Kwh for electricity and even charging at night is 8 cents. Solar panels are going to be part of this purchase, which will add to the short term cost but take my house off the grid and my vehicle permanently away from the gas station. I will carefully track how long it takes for these moves to pay for themselves.

If you're going off-grid, you'll also need to factory in those costly battery packs (considering a Powerwall or 3?).

 

[StapleGun]

It's important to keep in mind the exact words were "something approaching 400,000 people". In the extreme case that tells us absolutely nothing. Going from 325k to 326k is technically "approaching 400,000". Now I don't think O'Connell would have said this if they weren't at least over 350k but I don't think we have enough information to narrow it down more than that. And the difference between 350k and 400k is the difference between 25k vs 75k in the past week which is a huge range, so I don't think we really learned all that much here.

 

[melindav]

Are you saying that it is costing you $50-$60 / month to charge your Tesla? If yes, how many miles are you driving it / month? How often are you charging? How much electricity does it take to charge your vehicle (and what is average capacity left when you plug it in) each time? (from what % to what %?)

Trying to get a feel for how much it will cost/charge at home. My commute home -> work is 40 miles round trip. If I take our son to lacrosse practice (2x/week) that's another 20 round trip. If I go out to lunch, another 10, so 40-70 miles / day. Probably 250 miles on an average week. Figure I'd charge every other day, so 3-4x/week. Average spend / month on gas for my 2005 Nissan Aramada right now is about $160/month. Approximately a $40 fill-up every week (20 gallons).

there is a calculator on TeslaMotors site where you can put enter your electric rate, daily distance driven and type of power source and it will give you the daily cost to charge. It's about half way down this page

 

[Nurburgringer]

Pre-ordered mine the morning after the reveal, so maybe 150,000ish in line.
Might cancel my order and get a Volt or Pacifica plug-in, need to drive both. Sedans are just not very practical; hatchback, wagon or minivan is my preference.
No rush, daily driving a '01 BMW 740i and gas is cheap...

 

[03DSG]

In Ontario, Canada our time of use rates are:

Off Peak .083 cents/kwh
Mid Peak .128 "
On Peak .175 "

This is the electrical cost alone. There is a 'Delivery' cost as well. This is slightly variable but about .052 cents/kwh. So the 7pm to 7am weekday and 24 hour weekend/holiday rate is actually .135/kwh PLUS 13% tax = .153/kwh almost double the base rate. Not sure about south of the 49'th but important to factor in north of the border.

 

[doublejj]

Pre-ordered mine the morning after the reveal, so maybe 150,000ish in line.
Might cancel my order and get a Volt or Pacifica plug-in, need to drive both. Sedans are just not very practical; hatchback, wagon or minivan is my preference.
No rush, daily driving a '01 BMW 740i and gas is cheap...

A BMW 740i is just not very practical (no hatch), so a hatchback, wagon or minivan would be best for you.....gas is cheap

 

[tmoz]

Try adding a linear term and this latest data point. I have fewer observations than you did, but could still justify it in terms of reducing chi^2/DOF. 10.66k/day is a good starting guess on the linear term.

Here it is hacked up in Excel. X-axis is days, Y is reservation in thousands.
View attachment 172260

You have a larger set of observations, and better statistical SW, so I'd like to see what a linear term does to your fit. Can you get error bars on the fit parameters? thanks.

By error bars do you mean the difference between the model and actual data?
I used Matlab, but this isn't a complicated curve (yet). Seems like the first part is classic exponential. The 2nd part may behave differently. After another month of data, I'll take a look at the post 325000 growth and see what type of curve fits those points.

 

[CRWJumper]

Ordered mine on the first day. I hope that I don't have to wait for more that 3 years to get it. ;-)