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Model 3 set to dominate it's category as early as next month
- Thread starter Swampgator
- Start date
I'm unconvinced that the legacy premium carmakers are being squeezed by Tesla. I hope to be proven wrong, if not now then soon
Would you believe it if BMW says so?
“Tesla is now ramping up their volumes, and it’s putting pressure on that market segment,” Bernhard Kuhnt, chief executive officer of BMW North America, said in an interview Tuesday. “In that environment, I’m very, very pleased to say we were up.”
All I know is on Saturday, when over 200 people were trying to pick up their Tesla at the store, I went to the Audi dealership and it was a ghost town. On a Saturday afternoon.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
My understanding is that sufficient battery capacity simply doesn't exist right now for large car makers to go EV in bulk.
It's why all the super-ev-fans screaming "ICE WILL BE GONE IN 5 YEARS" are nuts... that's physically impossible.
Tesla supposedly produces more EV batteries by kwh than every other maker in the world combined- and their total vehicle production is a tiny fraction of the total # of vehicles sold in a year.
EV is the future but ICE is gonna be around for a while yet.
They also produce the BEST batteries for EVs. They have a serious competitive advantage in batteries and therefore cars both in price and quality. That's why all these people that are telling us that the "big" car companies are going to crush Tesla in a few years are dreaming. The only thing that could crush Tesla is a drop in demand for EVs (highly unlikely given the climate change regs in Europe and other places) or a severe economic downturn (never know do we?). Competition from other companies in EVs is the least likely scenario in the near to mid-term.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Not particularly, since the data are ambiguous. If anything, I'd say that the strongest signal is SUV eating into car sales.
Updated with Audi's #s. Also added the Volvo S60 and Acura TLX. Did not add the ATS since GM is now also reporting quarterly only and I don't have a solid feel for monthly estimate accuracy for them.
Great work, thanks!
Model 3 has 58% market share! If you added all competitors it's probably still over 50%
My gosh Model Y is going to kill the OEMs. They depend of those SUV/CUVs to make their numbers.
Yeah, that's certainly a powerful takeaway. As mentioned above, currently the 3 is partially growing / partially eating a segment that was already contracting (sedans). Once the Y hits and starts eating the midsize SUV... Trouble.
Yes, brand totals for August and Sept are included in the chart. I started including them last month when Tesla started overtaking the bigger names (Passed Merc and Audi in Aug, BMW and Lexus in Sept).
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
My mistake, I meant July. That was when Tesla Model 3 sales took off from 6k a month
mtndrew1
Active Member
Here’s how the authority on automotive reporting is summing up September auto sales. They don’t even see this coming, it’s remarkable.
A local perspective from ground zero of the EV revolution.
According to the California New Car Dealers Association, electric vehicle sales for 2018 make up 7.7% of all new vehicle sales in the San Francisco Bay area. Considering that the Model 3, by far the most important volume electric car, has been ramping up all that time, the percentage for August alone must be much, much higher: I would guess at least 15% of new car sales have been EV's, and those largely Model 3's. Maybe BMW, Mercedes, and Audi can stay afloat here on service revenue until their EV's arrive, but the ICE sales situation for those brands in this region looks dire to me, and I don't see how it can ever get better.
Seeing what it is like to have a lot of Model 3's around, I do have some advice for Tesla going forward: more paint and interior colors. Even if you can't do a lot of them at once, add new ones and retire old ones. The more Model 3's there are in an area, the more people will want to differentiate their cars from all the others. Color is highly effective and has no engineering cost. We are already seeing a growing aftermarket of personalization items, but cars coming out of the factory could really benefit from more variety. Might not matter in places where there are only a few Model 3's in town, but once you have several per block, which is where we're going, it's a different story.
According to the California New Car Dealers Association, electric vehicle sales for 2018 make up 7.7% of all new vehicle sales in the San Francisco Bay area. Considering that the Model 3, by far the most important volume electric car, has been ramping up all that time, the percentage for August alone must be much, much higher: I would guess at least 15% of new car sales have been EV's, and those largely Model 3's. Maybe BMW, Mercedes, and Audi can stay afloat here on service revenue until their EV's arrive, but the ICE sales situation for those brands in this region looks dire to me, and I don't see how it can ever get better.
Seeing what it is like to have a lot of Model 3's around, I do have some advice for Tesla going forward: more paint and interior colors. Even if you can't do a lot of them at once, add new ones and retire old ones. The more Model 3's there are in an area, the more people will want to differentiate their cars from all the others. Color is highly effective and has no engineering cost. We are already seeing a growing aftermarket of personalization items, but cars coming out of the factory could really benefit from more variety. Might not matter in places where there are only a few Model 3's in town, but once you have several per block, which is where we're going, it's a different story.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
NOT that they don't see it coming.
Willfully ignoring it. They don't want to give Tesla any free advertising... they know where their bread is buttered.
voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
I think it will be a minimum of 12 months before Tesla does that... if anything they've reduced paint choices because their paint shop is apparently a bottleneck right now.
Normally manufacturers introduce more color choices and new wheel designs as a way to keep interest in a car high, Tesla does not currently have that problem... maybe Q3/4 of next year when tax incentives have nearly evaporated.
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